Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h500slp.png

Funnily enough, this looks a lot like the 12z UKMO from yesterday.

Today's UKMO 12z still has more of a low into Europe than GFS so perhaps it will also resemble it's previous 12z effort but with a bit more of an easterly flow than GFS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Like I said, the GFS doesn't want to know

5a85b35016ced_GFSgross.thumb.png.e81816053ee38dd26a4d965f4959e174.png

Unless of course it's a flat MLB you're after? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Oh boy. 

ICON vs GEM, UKMO & GFS. ECM will probably go down the ICON route just to further confuse and complicate things. 

We're still no closer to really solving this but the longer time ticks on, I'd say the less likely we're going to see that trigger shortwave moving South, seems to be growing more distant with each set of runs. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

UKMO is poor compared to its 0z run BUT it's still better than the GFS.

However, a very disappointing start to the evening runs in my opinion

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Just now, radiohead said:

Quite a change from the 12Z UKMO at 120...

 

UW120-21.GIF?15-17 

Yes everything is still unresolved, But with the movement of the ICON towards the rest I would probably put money on the 18z ICON dropping the easterly at least the quick one anyway.

The Icon moved towards the others on day 3 (72hrs) with less heights being pushed north, if that trend continues you end up with a flatter pattern again for the short term at least,

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Oh boy. 

ICON vs GEM, UKMO & GFS. ECM will probably go down the ICON route just to further confuse and complicate things. 

We're still no closer to really solving this but the longer time ticks on, I'd say the less likely we're going to see that trigger shortwave moving South, seems to be growing more distant with each set of runs. 

But we are, the ICON moved and is near the tipping point, the mid term is still up for grabs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

GFS 12z is an absolute stinker, disgusting chart given what was progged a few days ago, very disappointing. Bloody Greenland vortex, sure we have low pressure over Southern Europe but we are just stuck with this pattern 

IMG_0191.PNG

Edited by Weathizard
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Quite a change from the 12Z UKMO at 120...

 

UW120-21.GIF?15-17 

Yes, looks like no easterly on this run. Similar to GFS at 120t with more energy over the top. That's sad. Maybe in a later time span than shown from 00h earlir run.

 C

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

I had written a long winded analysis but have just deleted the lot. ICON will have to back track I'm afraid, giant slaying is off today's menu. GFS and UKMO are horrible:angry:

 

T144: ICON, GEM, UKMO and GFS.

icon-0-144.png

gem-0-144.png

UW144-21.gif

gfs-0-144.png

Edited by snowray
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

ECM is huge tonight. It's not like the middle ground is any use to us.

Edited by Paul
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
23 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So then for the haters, The IKON is going to own the GFS here around the s/wave

So you are backing the IKON over all the rest ?!? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

Worst. SSW. Ever.

Looks like a bog standard chart, nothing remotely seems to have been impacted ....yet?

 

A8198388-5CF6-43DB-848F-49783D572729.jpeg

No way to cold from there.

Edited by Johnp
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

image.thumb.png.bc2271dcfba59545bebcc848d0c2d47d.png

The problem is that you are going to really struggle to get a cold cold spell if you have a strong PV and a weak/no block over Scandi.

Looks like the cold air pouring out of Canada is going to cost us again, as it has done so many times in recent winters. I'd rather look forward to some dry, milder days under high pressure anyway now :)

I was also surprised so many people thought this would be a QTR, looking at the GFS T216 you wouldn't think there had been a response at all...

Edited by Quicksilver1989
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So despite the early excitement from the IKON & GFs moving the shortwave early doors its been all down hill from there

similar to 2012 the models have picked up a shortwave at 144 that will impede the retrograde North of the High- GFS / UKMO / GEM all now positive in the tilted atlantic-

ECM had this last 2 runs-

Pretty Pony TBH.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

So what's actually failed?

One op run from UKMO showing a mid week easterly along with lesser models.

I wasn't expecting any change until later in the week.If some don't control their jerking legs they are in danger of knocking themselves out:D

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Still, it'll be a nice early start to spring at least

FF.thumb.png.c59fa74f02689177ec1241852fa4ef6e.png

Get the charcoal in and get an early March BBQ going to kick off the new season! If the ICON manages to pull this one out of the bag and call it right then it'll be forever imprinted into history and I'll personally print off the GFS/ECM/UKMO frames and eat them. 

Big step back away from cold, wonder what the ensembles will show..

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Worst. SSW. Ever.

Looks like a bog standard chart, nothing remotely seems to have been impacted ....yet?

 

A8198388-5CF6-43DB-848F-49783D572729.jpeg

:rofl:

 

To be fair it's not been two weeks yet has it, and by all accounts the impact should be felt later on in most cases (except when there is a QTR) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

For the first time I note a disturbance in the force..JMA out so far going as it’s predecessor. Decent.

E57351A8-2F44-417C-AC3A-EB9024A45022.thumb.gif.25e281ac2380dc1ff14f4be45706dda3.gif

Edited by Daniel*
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...