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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

GFS still not having it

Nope.thumb.png.b9ba0716366919973bd812060cde7f94.png

That's it for me, the ensembles will probably back away later this evening on the 12z runs if not as early as the 06z run. Even the GFS isn't this rubbish with verification. UKMO and EPS is the only saving grace at the moment if we take the cannon fodder models out of the equation.

I just can't see the ECM & GFS being wrong at 76hrs.

EDIT: I'm talking specifically about cold as early as day 6/7, not necessarily the deep FI cold. 

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Imo a step towards ukmo. Low out west being modelled now. Heights going more north as less energy from the nw. Not the same as ukmo but a move towards it.

IMG_0568.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

so... after all our speculation and intense scrutiny of the ensembles, the UKMO gives us a stealth easterly that sneaked in under the radar.

key timeframe just 72 hours!....

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

GFS still not having it

Nope.thumb.png.b9ba0716366919973bd812060cde7f94.png

That's it for me, the ensembles will probably back away later this evening on the 12z runs if not as early as the 06z run. Even the GFS isn't this rubbish with verification. 

Seems odd using the crappest run of the day as your tipping point.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Just now, Johnp said:

Seems odd using the crappest run of the day as your tipping point.

Add to the fact the next post says it's a move towards UKMO!

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Imo a step towards ukmo. Low out west being modelled now. Heights going more north as less energy from the nw. Not the same as ukmo but a move towards it.

IMG_0568.PNG

Correct, this should be a better run with that low out west helping things along.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

and as if by Magic, the GFS now shows the low in the Atlantic...that wasn't there 6 hours ago :pardon:

gfsnh-0-120.png?6gfsnh-0-126.png?0

We can't have any confidence in the modelling atm, until we get some agreement in the same model set, i.e. 12z, not UKMO 00z +GFS06z, we need the 12z to agree at +96 or still nothing will be resolved.

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
49 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Well the SSW is certainly causing model mayhem this morning, what really catches my eye, comparing GFS/EC/UKMO, is at t+120 the total absence on GFS of the deep low to the NW of the Azores - while EC and UKMO have it.

 

All of a sudden the 06z GFS blows up a low NW of the Azores like the EC and UKMO did on 00z, this may make a difference to the wave lengths and surface highs downstream

00z vs 06z GFS for 00z Tues 20th Feb

GFSOPEU00_120_1.thumb.png.f5bf6f3b8453f94b63befcdd2cf59f1c.pngGFSOPEU06_114_1.thumb.png.023222c9054ba83ca2d118b6c915bbe0.png

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Charts of the morning go to UKMO a bitter easterly setting up

UW144-21.thumb.GIF.030644d94bcbc269e2426143b49f39bf.GIFUW144-7.thumb.GIF.4454d81c04b66cc8d80d96f679f43daf.GIF

:cold::cold::cold:

Sure sign of incoming doom, Summer Sun ramping a cold run :rofl: 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Well what fun. No agreement or any real consistency model to model or with one model from run to run over the past few days. Met continue to push for deep cold from the east later next week. I admire their consistency but am not able to support that view with any confidence.

The 6-10 anomaly charts continue to have two tending to agree with their view and one not. That one is EC, a model UK Met (Exeter) generally use . So the plot deepens. No charts as they show nothing not mentioned above.

It is creating interest for sure. Just while typing this 17 new messages it tells me!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

All of a sudden the 06z GFS blows up a low NW of the Azores like the EC and GFS did on 00z, this may make a difference to the wave lengths and surface highs downstream

00z vs 06z GFS for 00z Tues 20th Feb

GFSOPEU00_120_1.thumb.png.f5bf6f3b8453f94b63befcdd2cf59f1c.pngGFSOPEU06_114_1.thumb.png.023222c9054ba83ca2d118b6c915bbe0.png

Thinking this run will likely give big heights over the UK and Western Europe that will be stubborn to shift. Let's see though :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Laughable differences between GFS and UKMO at 144

144GFS.thumb.png.cdc0788506c617aefd13cd23fdbc8ef6.png

UKMO144.thumb.gif.80ca83b4561d6be8d53a206265ce0f99.gif

Lets hope the GFS ensembles can somewhat salvage themselves, I don't think i've ever known a potential cold spell like it.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

I haven't posted for a few days because to be honest the inconsistency of the output has put me off posting. Anyway here is my opinion of the latest output.

If I was honest if it wasn't for the UKMO this morning I would be very dubious of any cold E,ly arriving. This is because the ECM/GFS being at odds with the ensemble means and the operationals continuing to be outliers. When this occurs with support from the lesser models then I tend to lean towards the higher resolution of the operationals. I will add though the ECM & GFS are hardly the same as each other.

So based on everything above I would say we have a 35% of a cold, snowy E,ly i.e UKMO/GEM etc, 35% of just a SE,ly bringing nothing but settled conditions, 30% SW,ly like ECM.

Lets hope the odds swing more towards the E,ly but at this moment in time only 35% chance for me.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

Currently the only consistency in the model outputs is their lack of consistency ............... one picks up a thread, runs with it then ditches it only for that thread to be taken up by another model which then ditches it after a run or two. It certainly helps to maintain interest but also fuels frustration on behalf of us model watchers.

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

so... after all our speculation and intense scrutiny of the ensembles, the UKMO gives us a stealth easterly that sneaked in under the radar.

key timeframe just 72 hours!....

I'm really starting to think that a lot of us have spent a week screaming "cold delayed" "easterly pushed back" when in reality we may have missed it actually getting 24 hours closer every day.

I find it quite strange over the last week that Meto have not seemingly taken a usual cards under the table approach and sat on the fence so to speak. The 19th is the date they have stuck to in their updates as has IF.

Whichever models it is that have to jump ship as early as t96, i predict a SNW in the next 24 hours (Sudden Netweather Meltdown) and i have this inkling it will be in our favour.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

GFS continues to be bullish on taking the MLB route in the medium range, too much energy going into a flat northern arm of the jet on the 06z op run to allow the block to move north, though later on it looks like the northern arm will buckle to allow to move north, giving the agonising prospect of waiting even longer to see if it will the high will get far enough north to allow troughing to undercut and give us an easterly. 

Not often one sees such big differences beyond day 5, so can only think that the SSW is causing this mayhem.

A truckload of salt needed, though won't need it for the snow, unless the UKMO is on to something.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

With 10 pages almost in a 12 hour period, Watching the model output last night and this morning keeps bringing me back to Stewarts post (GP) yesterday, favouring an outbreak more towards the end of the Month and into March.. This is a busy place, so some may have missed it, glazed over it, dismissed it (that would be odd) etc. #justsaying 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

I think from 192h that UK high is heading north.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

To be fair, 06z is showing easterlies across the midlands and south by day 6 / 2100hrs and T2 temps widely of 3/4 C max. Not deep cold but pretty chilly.

image.thumb.png.da00b519a3fa8c109df95bec7e3f2e83.pngimage.thumb.png.fb8480dc5261e7c0e8004680b0e1b73f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

GFS continues to be bullish on taking the MLB route in the medium range, too much energy going into a flat northern arm of the jet on the 06z op run to allow the block to move north, though later on it looks like the northern arm will buckle to allow to move north, giving the agonising prospect of waiting even longer to see if it will the high will get far enough north to allow troughing to undercut and give us an easterly. 

Not often one sees such big differences beyond day 5, so can only think that the SSW is causing this mayhem.

A truckload of salt needed, though won't need it for the snow, unless the UKMO is on to something.

 

Look how much the np on the gfs has moved towards ukmo. IF we see a similar reduction again in energy from the nw on the gfs later the rest of the run will go on to look more like ukmo. Imo until this resolved looking past t96 plus is JFF.  Upto t96 on gfs is a step towards ukmo but happy for others to disagree with charts and commentary to back up their thoughts.

IMG_0570.PNG

IMG_0571.PNG

IMG_0573.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I think from 192h that UK high is heading north.

It certainly is headed north here is 216 hrs 

IMG_1497.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe
32 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

and as if by Magic, the GFS now shows the low in the Atlantic...that wasn't there 6 hours ago :pardon:

gfsnh-0-120.png?6gfsnh-0-126.png?0

We can't have any confidence in the modelling atm, until we get some agreement in the same model set, i.e. 12z, not UKMO 00z +GFS06z, we need the 12z to agree at +96 or still nothing will be resolved.

This is just amazing, at only 96 hours away the model can have such a stark difference, no low to a pretty intense low pressure.  As much as it is frustrating it is fascinating model watching for sure, worst 'Shannon' ever I feel.

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