Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[The Eagle]

ICON WINS?

 

[The Eagle]

Looks to me like the ICON model might have been rightish all along.

 

[Fingers]

Looks that way. High over Iceland and 2nd coldpool advancing westwards at t180. Lets see what the gfs can do! 

[Ali1977]

00z similar to 18z out to mid next week - not great. 850s between 0-2c and nothing very cold to our east.

[Fingers]

Loving the ukmo at t144!!

[jvenge]

At T144 the GFS has cut off the heights slightly quicker and the position changed slightly, but it is still not good for cold for the UK, as colder air will cut under. Doubtful anything fruitful within high resolution. Slight chance for the extreme south east coast.

[london-snow]

5 minutes ago, jvenge said:

At T144 the GFS has cut off the heights slightly quicker and the position changed slightly, but it is still not good for cold for the UK, as colder air will cut under. Doubtful anything fruitful within high resolution. Slight chance for the extreme south east coast.

That’s not far off a pretty tasty chart the placing of the high is crucial imo a tad further nw and we’re in..

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 hours ago, tight isobar said:

!.

Thats quite a drastic- uptick in ens tbh.

I certainly was't expecting that!.

The mean been heavy on the mid solution..now upspikes and takes members in toe!!!.

Not a good sign!!!

Yet could be the overide- and note b4 agree come into, situ...and the band starts playing again....'perhaps' !!???

Ensembles are nigh on useless and no matter what anyone tells me, my view will not change. I've seen enough over the years to know ensemble suites can flip with the op...as last night's GEFS proved. 

Some people will argue until they are blue in the face that they are the God send of modern meteorology but IMO that's because they realise that without ensemble forecasting we really are at the mercy of operational runs (which have improved over the years, granted). 

Also just because ensembles suites don't flip quite as much as the ops tend to, it doesn't make them any more accurate with the eventualities.

Edited February 15, 2018 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

GFS is another poor run tbh but UKMO brings back the trigger shortwave.

So non the wiser but nice to see UKMO come back to a quick cold solution.

 

[Fingers]

Poor from the Gfs, the high drifting too far east at t186. No cold uppers whatsoever. 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GFS is another poor run tbh but UKMO brings back the trigger shortwave.

So non the wiser but nice to see UKMO come back to a quick cold solution.

 

I’m just hoping everything at some point today flips to the same conclusion,  turning much colder mid next week - shame UKMO don’t show 850s but I’d think they’d be pretty cold and the very cold air in the kink above Scandy looks primed to head our way. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

I’m just hoping everything at some point today flips to the same conclusion,  turning much colder mid next week - shame UKMO don’t show 850s but I’d think they’d be pretty cold and the very cold air in the kink above Scandy looks primed to head our way. 

UKMO 850s

[jvenge]

9 minutes ago, london-snow said:

That’s not far off a pretty tasty chart the placing of the high is crucial imo a tad further nw and we’re in..

Sadly no. At that range, we need to be relying on the GFS being very very wrong (quite possible). It is quite far from a good chart as both the position, shape and angle are all wrong. So it isn't just a positional issue.

As usual, to the ensembles to see when divergence starts. 

 

[london-snow]

So that’s 2–1 thus far for the easterly with a big ecm coming up can it seal the result or will it send us into sudden death extra time..

As mentioned above though GFS is not a total disaster and not far away from a good chart.

Not a bad start to the meteorological day imo..

 

 

[Fingers]

Gem gets there a very different way and delivers great charts at day 10! 

3-1! 

Edited February 15, 2018 by Fingers

[Cheshire Freeze]

If someone wants to see truly great charts, look at the end of the GFS 0z run. - 15 upper air touching east coast! Doesn't get colder than that early March! 

That depth of cold even tops 2013.

Edited February 15, 2018 by CreweCold

[Fingers]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If someone wants to see truly great charts, look at the end of the GFS 0z run. - 15 upper air touching east coast! Doesn't get colder than that early March! 

That depth of cold even tops 2013.

That truly is cold!! Eagerly await the ecm, definitely better charts so far this morning, hope THE ECM is up for it! 

[The Eagle]

Difference between UKMO and GFS at 96 hours is stark for our prospects

 

[The PIT]

Woke up this morning hoping the fat lady had left but she burst out of the cupboard. After a brief wrestling match I won two falls to one and viewed the gfs. What did I see more spring like temps and a token easterly way out in deep fi once more.

ECM will that deliver probably not but who knows.

[Seasonality]

UKMO vs GFS. Now surely this is good reason to be more positive. Hardly a done deal but should the ECM follow suit then time for some of the toys to be picked up

[Ali1977]

That UKMO would be best case scenario, there would be snow showers hitting the East coast as early as Tue morning turning significantly colder thereafter. Would love to see the ECM follow that, but AGAIN models disagree at a relatively close range . Another day of frustration ahead me thinks. 

[SMU]

Things still coming along nicely now -

IKON > UKMO has now followed to a suitable scenario - 

Can the ECM make it a full house?

Far to many lemmings on here last night jumping off the cliff !

[Seasonality]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That UKMO would be best case scenario, there would be snow showers hitting the East coast as early as Tue morning turning significantly colder thereafter. Would love to see the ECM follow that, but AGAIN models disagree at a relatively close range . Another day of frustration ahead me thinks. 

I think the problem is that the crucial stages are actually within what would normally be the relatively 'reliable' shorter range, yet we've no agreement. Frustrating indeed.

[Seasonality]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Things still coming along nicely now -

IKON > UKMO has now followed to a suitable scenario - 

Can the ECM make it a full house?

Far to many lemmings on here last night jumping off the cliff !

Got any verification data for the IKON? Is it now one of the top 3 and therefore makes a full house?

[swfc]

Morning from a miserable Sheffield. Not really commented on here for a week or ten days but watching and seeing how things pan out on the mo ete

It would seem after the initial ssw that things to some are never quite within reach atm.Over the years you learn not to take each run in isolation "altho it is there to view"but look at the broader picture.there is know doubt a major change relative to thia winter so far is coming in some shape or form.The atmosphere is in a state of flux and where the pieces fall is anyones guess.let the weather do its dance over the next 7-10 days and see what evolves.you cant change it so roll with it !!!