Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[inghams85]

The 18z ensembles are terrible. Agreement on a warm up and only small support for a cool down after the 21st. Oh dear.......

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

No matter what way we look at it the trend is in the wrong direction and I don't think anyone here believes the evolution of the smaller models will save the day. The weather will do what it will do but we need the GFS/ECM op runs to show change in the next couple of days.

Yes!! Obviously..

Model agree is the safest way for predict.

And ops agree cross suites even moreso.

However' - the ens have as the ops divered to a large degree...until ens of late seemed to have cut it!!

The operationals should now grasp the mechanics of the welling of ssw...

So all nxt 24-hr suites shold give 80% guidance...

For 7-16 day outlook..(minimal varients given!!!)

[Jason M]

Its been a poor trend today no doubt, but there are wild differences in the outputs in the mid range and if we are being honest the 18Z ensemble suite isn't exactly bad! There are some seriously cold runs in there.

I suspect that if something good does come of this it will suddenly appear at day 7/8. This won't be one of those situations where we count a cold spell down from deep in FI (2010 style). 

[Bottled Snow]

29 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Taking a step back and looking at the last few days of output from ECM and GFS in an attempt to separate reality from expectation and perception.

ECM 

ECM has only shown cold upper air getting across the UK from the East in 1 of its last 8 runs. (12.5%)

GFS 00z and 12z only out to day 10

GFS has shown cold upper air getting across the UK from the East in 4 of its last 8 runs. (50%)

ECM and GFS ensembles

Both favour colder weather from around 21st/22nd but both have wide range of solutions and scatter with milder runs.

If we look at the lesser models then they are more optimistic about cold chances within the next 10 days.

It is impossible to come to any definitive conclusion except that there will be proclivity toward a more blocked pattern from around the 18th.

There is a low probability of cold pattern establishing itself from around the 20th

There is a little better than average probability of cold pattern establishing itself sometime last 3rd of Feb but lower probability that will be before last week of Feb.

 

All of the above based on current and recent output.

Things could look very different with new information.

 

 

 

 

Great post Mucka which highlights the uncertainty especially  with this ongoing  SSW event .

These easterlies from experience even when they do get here are usually long drawn out affairs. As far back as 1996 I recall forecasters and newspapers here were predicting cold easterlies and a white Xmas about 4 to 5 days out. They eventually landed New Years Eve and gave us a white New Year

Even in 2010 models had initially predicted the really cold uppers to arrive seceral days earlier than reality. 

However all the the signs, including anomoly charts and ensembles are to me showing a strong emough signal to believe we will eventually see a very cold spell arrive hopefully mid to late next week. 

Fascinating to watch it all unfold though...looking forward to tomorrows runs already...

Edited February 15, 2018 by Bottled Snow

[helen47]

Just now, abbie123 said:

So is that it then gone the way as pear and the meto update today was very  encouraging ..

 

Look again in the morning it will be different then look 6 hours later it will be different and so on its an evolving situation dont get hung up on one set of ensembles:)

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

No matter what way we look at it the trend is in the wrong direction and I don't think anyone here believes the evolution of the smaller models will save the day. The weather will do what it will do but we need the GFS/ECM op runs to show change in the next couple of days.

Won't take much to switch back to cold though, we see it all the time in the models of course. Let the minor models have their victory for once. Like David slaying Goliath, I have a good feeling about the smaller models, they have been very consistent in their output after all.

[bobbydog]

Just now, abbie123 said:

So is that it then gone the way as pear and the meto update today was very  encouraging ..

 

no, far from it. still 3 or 4 days before we'll know for sure(ish...)  which way this will go.

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, helen47 said:

Look again in the morning it will be different then look 6 hours later it will be different and so on its an evolving situation dont get hung up on one set of ensembles:)

!.

Thats quite a drastic- uptick in ens tbh.

I certainly was't expecting that!.

The mean been heavy on the mid solution..now upspikes and takes members in toe!!!.

Not a good sign!!!

Yet could be the overide- and note b4 agree come into, situ...and the band starts playing again....'perhaps' !!???

[Jimmyh]

Can i ask a basic question. How often are the ENS produced??? I thought as a novice on here that the scatter at the time was marginal and showing most going cold. Are they producced more than once a day?? 

[helen47]

2 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

Can i ask a basic question. How often are the ENS produced??? I thought as a novice on here that the scatter at the time was marginal and showing most going cold. Are they producced more than once a day?? 

4 times a day after each run

[Duane S.]

First time in a few days that the ens have had a little wobble for the mid term. Means absolutely nothing yet, read very little into it.

Another 2 or 3 days yet of to’ing and fro’ing before the direction that we will eventually be heading in starts to reveal itself this coming weekend.

Enjoy the (bumpy) ride until then folks. Follow each suite and take as gospel at your own peril.

[tight isobar]

There now clearly has to be a path in 'order' via ooz ops...

As we try to overide the resopones.

Failing that it could quickly fall to bits!!!

I never thought i'd have to say that!!!!

[Bottled Snow]

16 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

!.

Thats quite a drastic- uptick in ens tbh.

I certainly was't expecting that!.

The mean been heavy on the mid solution..now upspikes and takes members in toe!!!.

Not a good sign!!!

Yet could be the overide- and note b4 agree come into, situ...and the band starts playing again....'perhaps' !!???

I counted 8 brilliant runs for cold from mid term to day 16. Another few eventually get there right at the end. However there are now marginally  less very cold members in this suite compared to last few days. Still a strong enough signal and maybe a rogue set, but worrying all the same. We need to see tomorrow's suites show more cold runs to raise  confidence. It would also be good to see the operationals come on board with the colder solutions 

Night all....

Edited February 15, 2018 by Bottled Snow

[Duane S.]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

There now clearly has to be a path in 'order' via ooz ops...

As we try to overide the resopones.

Failing that it could quickly fall to bits!!!

I never thought i'd have to say that!!!!

Big picture.

If the initial Easterly does ‘fall to pieces’, chances aplenty around the corner,  

And... the initial Easterly is still very much on the table.

All is good.

Edited February 15, 2018 by s4lancia

[Jimmyh]

So where did i see that the ENS were showing today that at some stage during the day the mild option was the scatter where everything else was showing cold 

[Bottled Snow]

3 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

So where did i see that the ENS were showing today that at some stage during the day the mild option was the scatter where everything else was showing cold 

Yes earlier runs showed majority of members going the cold route whereas 18z shows cold runs slightly in minority. Let's sleep tight and hope for upgrades over next few days....

Edited February 15, 2018 by Bottled Snow

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Big picture.

If the initial Easterly does fall to oieces, chances aplenty around the corner,  

And... the initial Easterly is still very much on the table.

All is good.

Possibly??.

And i-myself maybe being a drama queen here?.

Although initial easterly(assured) is atm a 1 day incur-..that as the 18z has it...with major divergance afterward!..

But...this also could be the wobble b4- the holy grail....its honestly that close...

Or otherwise...intresting is an' understatement atm...

[Jimmyh]

3 minutes ago, Bottled Snow said:

Yes earlier runs showed majority of members going the cold route whereas 18z shows cold runs slightly in minority. Let's sleep tight and hope for upgrades over next few days....

Thanks it is hard to keep up sometimes.... 

[Daniel*]

People doing the unusual panicking some things never change even from those that have been on this forum for long - you really should know better. The ens are run at a lower resolution I thought pub run wasn’t at all bad the spread is large & well colder option easterly is favoured did you read the Exeter update?

Top ECM cluster this evening out to day 12 is wintry for Southern England. All three feature HLB that is a crucial ingredient we’re set to have. If you expect perfect ens after ens I’m afraid that’s in some utopia. 

Ian is completely right. No change in emphasis. Clarity will grow by the day.

 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

People doing the unusual panicking some things never change even from those that have been on this forum for long - you really should know better. The ens are run at a lower resolution I thought pub run wasn’t at all bad the spread is large & well colder option easterly is favoured did you read the Exeter update?

Top ECM cluster this evening out to day 12 is wintry for Southern England. All three feature HLB that is a crucial ingredient we’re set to have. If you expect perfect ens after ens I’m afraid that’s in some utopia. 

Ian is completely right. No change in emphasis. Clarity will grow by the day.

 

We need to see the split/divergance...

Of hopefully agreement soon.

Ooz suites are f mass impactual intrest.

Some ops align now need specifics..as the ens are also on a transition..

All to play 4 -yes- but the alleyway, is becoming narrower.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

1 hour ago, Daniel Smith said:

Can we have a massive round of applause for the GFS which manages to get the cold in by the 384th hour? 2nd March we'll be freezing our fingers off!

I'm being deliberately sarcastic now, of course. But the points I made earlier still stand, if it fails at the first hurdle with the initial shortwave over Scandi which seems to be about 50/50 at the moment (we'll see what the 18z ensembles bring us) then we're left in a sortof no mans land with the high sitting over the UK until we can see either retrogression or undercutting from the European low. It just further complicates matters and when you haven't got much "time" of winter left, complicated isn't what you want to be seeing within the outputs. 

Excellent comments 

[Weathizard]

Pretty dreadful 18z ENS... considering where we were yesterday

[shaky]

3 hours ago, tight isobar said:

I won't deny' that the 18z ens are of somewhat concern...

But also have scatter bases' of  'perhaps' more notable colder members!..

Its a tight knit- scenario....

Variant in abundance!!!

The ops need to agree soon on the route in question....

The op and control were virtually on their own a few runs ago for the 19-21st of february for the milder outcome and evryone was saying the ensembles were leading the way but it looks different now and finally the colder runs are gone and they have gone mild!!all we are seeing is the cold get push back further and further!!nearly a week ago it was at t300 and now it still close to that time frame if we go according to the op.00z coming up and for me its pretty huge across the suite. Get in the cold by around the 23rd or 25th latest and im excited but any later then a bigger chance of things going wrong as we have seen so far. Its like the models are teasing us at the moment lol cos it knows we gona fall for it.

[The Eagle]

ICON strong!

 

[Fingers]

Yep, colder air in quicker on this run, high slightly further north.