Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

6 minutes ago, igloo said:

To be honest i wouldnt complain if we have a march like 2011 again with temps at 19c was that also a SSW ? This could well go the say way as march 2011

Wow 19C in March! Where in the UK was that? I honestly can't remember a warm March that year only the widespread snow in Dec 2010 which was still around into January 2011

Edited February 14, 2018 by Draig Goch

[Daniel*]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Because we're now looking beyond the 23rd before cold air has even touched the UK, it's a poor show when comparing it to the faster models. It's an upgrade on the 12z sure, but at this rate were going to be chasing the Easterly until daffodils start blooming.

We already have the surface cold earlier on, this is slower but we’re getting there. The faster models are hardly favoured.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The 18z is an improvement on the 12z but it's still a pretty poor effort, but it is a step towards the ensembles which is something we want to see, hopefully we'll see further steps towards the mean overnight and tomorrow morning, the GFS rarely makes a huge jump in a single run. 

EC clusters/EPS will be telling on whether the ECM is still fairly isolated within it's own suite. Things to be positive above with the 18z, it's just not quite there yet.

Pretty poor?  Sorry you need to explain that unless you expect -50c easterlies by next week

 

 BFTP

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Because we're now looking beyond the 23rd before cold air has even touched the UK, it's a poor show when comparing it to the faster models. It's an upgrade on the 12z sure, but at this rate were going to be chasing the Easterly until daffodils start blooming.

And the 23rd ties in with the Met update so no change

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Wow 19C in March! Where in the UK was that? I honestly can't remember a warm March that year only the widespread snow in Dec 2010 which was still around into January 2011

You won’t remember 20+c in Feb ‘98 then

[karlos1983]

The beeb can’t get a 12 hr forecast right never mind a week +, and these here high pressures don’t tend to sink. More chance of that ending up in Svalbard than France!

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, bigdog1 said:

I am totally confused tonight some saying good  some not so good I can't read charts and the way people are portraying the charts tonight I don't  think I'll ever grasp it.

The best way to solve your dilemna is to stick your head into it and form your own opinions. Of course always take on board the opinions of others but look and learn for yourself

[Scorcher]

3 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Wow 19C in March! Where in the UK was that? I honestly can't remember a warm March that year only the widespread snow in Dec 2010 which was still around into January 2011

2012 was the notably warm March, widespread temperatures over 20C for a number of days. I don't think there was an SSW then though.

[Met4Cast]

6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Pretty poor?  Sorry you need to explain that unless you expect -50c easterlies by next week

 

 BFTP

You're right, I take it back. Amazing chart that at 222. I'll explain, again.

The 18z is "pretty poor" when compared against the likes of ICON/GEM/NAVGEM and hell, even when viewed against entire ECM ensemble suite. Compared to the earlier 12z it's an incredible run, the GFS actually managed to get high pressure to Scandi, go GFS! 

But it fails at the first hurdle at 120hrs when it sends the shortwave over Scandi Eastwards, it's pushed back the cold air reaching the UK to at the earliest, 24th. Day 10, which only makes it more likely for something to go wrong. 

The cleanest route is for the initial shortwave to drop S/SW and get the cold in early, this guarantees the blocking high is supported, otherwise we're left with a MLB hoping that the low over Europe can move Westwards and uncercut, as per 18z has done, finally getting there in the deepest reaches of FI.

It's no coincidence that the runs dropping that initial Shortwave S turn out to be the coldest runs.

That's my view, anyway.

Edited February 14, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[Banbury]

This is actually ok

[The Eagle]

Actually looks quite pleasant over all. Cool, dry and mostly sunny.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_237_1.png

[frosty ground]

High hasn't been pushed away mid term so it might not be cold but its not muld either.

[Daniel*]

This is a beauty of a chart +ve heights intensifying to north that very cold air is inbound going underneath that block perhaps danger coldest air may go the south of here, but still decent..

Edited February 14, 2018 by Daniel*

[ZK099]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

You're right, I take it back. Amazing chart that at 222. I'll explain, again.

The 18z is "pretty poor" when compared against the likes of ICON/GEM/NAVGEM and hell, even when viewed against entire ECM ensemble suite. Compared to the earlier 12z it's an incredible run, the GFS actually managed to get high pressure to Scandi, go GFS! 

But it fails at the first hurdle at 120hrs when it sends the shortwave over Scandi Eastwards, it's pushed back the cold air reaching the UK to at the earliest, 24th. Day 10, which only makes it more likely for something to go wrong. 

The cleanest route is for the initial shortwave to drop S/SW and get the cold in early, this guarantees the blocking high is supported, otherwise we're left with a MLB hoping that the low over Europe can move Westwards and uncercut, as per 18z has done, finally getting there in the deepest reaches of FI.

That's my view, anyway.

@Daniel Smith. Quality analysis from you recently mate. You make it quite easy to understand the little details on the models. Appreciate it mate

[Purga]

Looks like a good run to me with the high shifting NW

to cold incoming...

Edited February 14, 2018 by Purga

[ICE COLD]

Such a good chart just taking an eternity to advect the cold air west 

Edited February 14, 2018 by ICE COLD

[Daniel*]

Block retrogression to Greenland great run! There’s only one way this is going monster easterly.

[bluearmy]

Eps clusters

op is in one of six clusters 

it has 9 members

the gem type solution has 8 members 

te largest solution has 13 members. 

Plenty of water to go under the bridge on this 

in the extended, one non wintry cluster of 30%. The other two clusters are blocked to our nnw and look to be where we would expect them to be  

[Met4Cast]

276.. 26th February.. still waiting for that cold air to come on over

Synoptically, good charts showing. Cold air wise? Rubbish.

28th February? Can the cold do it?

Nope. 

Minor changes would make big differences, of course. But I don't quite understand the cheering for this run given what is being offered elsewhere, this is a poor halfway house as far as the UK is concerned.

Edited February 14, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[ICE COLD]

I bloody swear the cold air just goes around the uk ?

[Banbury]

Good run and to say again ties in with the Met

[MattStoke]

This GFS run has ensured I won't be suffering any insomnia tonight. An improvement on the 12z and continues the general theme of high pressure building over the UK and then building northward but, my God, it is such a slow and boring evolution. It also has the cold air missing the UK, but such detail is pretty pointless at this range. 

Edited February 14, 2018 by MattStoke

[The Eagle]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_312_2.png

 

Continent going in to the freezer.

[bluearmy]

Low res gfs - would you watch a gefs member slowly rolling out? 

[radiohead]

So close....