Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening ,day ten for coldies looks ,well don't look

[Met4Cast]

To further highlight the importance of that shortwave.

GEM 156

GFS 156

GEM tracks it Southish and then underneath the block. GFS sends it East. The results are pretty clear

[blizzard81]

Now I know where our easterly disappears to in a week's time. Sardinia! 

[Weathizard]

The GFS is still much better than its earlier effort at day 7 with the high cut off not sagging and sinking

[ICE COLD]

Just now, Weathizard said:

The GFS is still much better than its earlier effort at day 7 with the high cut off not sagging and sinking

Yep agreed a lot better than the 12z 

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Glenn Redwood said:

I need a break from this forum! Maybe back next year.  Hope you get your snow

You havn't been on long!!!

don't give up mate and don't let it get you down,just sit on the fence like most of us do

and keep enjoying the model watching,there is nothing better than the climax of an easterly

 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's just another vaviation of the theme,block still in situ in our local,infact this run is def better than the 12z with lower height's into europe and we have a closed hp cell,will it sink,na!!!

Certainly..

The variations will be quite vast.

And my own commentry, i should also refrain from..but can see many routes to a decent spell.

The ops are at logerheads with there 'very'own evolutions...and not surprisingly tbh...

Im sticking to the ensembles until such time there is at least a 3 way op-model agree...

Its quite some dynamical situation given the ssw-impacts....

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

To further highlight the importance of that shortwave.

GEM 156

GFS 156

GEM tracks it Southish and then underneath the block. GFS sends it East. The results are pretty clear

Yes....a decent run again should come from this

 

BFTP

[seabreeze86]

Pick the bones out of this. Lows and shortwaves galore nothing off the table tonight. I don't think any model on anyone for that matter has a clue what is going to happen

[terrier]

Well looks another poor show from the models tonight to be honest. The ukmo did show abit of promise earlier this evening. But as the old saying goes you can’t make a silk purse out of a pigs ear. At this rate we will be chasing this easterly in July still. On the bright side only 32 days to spring now. I honestly believe that this ssw warming just isn’t going to favour our tiny island. 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

You havn't been on long!!!

don't give up mate and don't let it get you down,just sit on the fence like most of us do

and keep enjoying the model watching,there is nothing better than the climax of an easterly

 

You can remember?

[nick sussex]

I think we want a clear solution either way .

So either the trigger shortwave or what the GFS 18 hrs run does because any Atlantic incursion will engage colder air and dew points pulled nw.

We don’t want a halfhearted middle ground because that’s the worst outcome.

This is a much better GFS run than the earlier one so far with lower heights to the south and a more elongated troughing to the west .

 

[Daniel*]

So much better compared to 12Z following UKMO T+168 I’m feeling more positive tonight. 

[markw2680]

I actually don’t think the gfs run was that bad. 

The theme is pretty much the same and tbh it was never going to be plain sailing.

it would be far to easy to have all the models agreeing on the outcome and counting it down.

we will have ups and downs for few more days yet I’m sure. As long as the theme is there it could become very exciting 

[ICE COLD]

It's now heading further north ?

[Met4Cast]

The 18z is an improvement on the 12z but it's still a pretty poor effort, but it is a step towards the ensembles which is something we want to see, hopefully we'll see further steps towards the mean overnight and tomorrow morning, the GFS rarely makes a huge jump in a single run. 

EC clusters/EPS will be telling on whether the ECM is still fairly isolated within it's own suite. Things to be positive above with the 18z, it's just not quite there yet.

[Ice Day]

Call me old fashioned, but this looks a beaut at 192.  Low dropping into Europe, should move towards the UK in later frames?

 

[igloo]

Just now, terrier said:

Well looks another poor show from the models tonight to be honest. The ukmo did show abit of promise earlier this evening. But as the old saying goes you can’t make a silk purse out of a pigs ear. At this rate we will be chasing this easterly in July still. On the bright side only 32 days to spring now. I honestly believe that this ssw warming just isn’t going to favour our tiny island. 

To be honest i wouldnt complain if we have a march like 2011 again with temps at 19c was that also a SSW ? This could well go the say way as march 2011

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well looks another poor show from the models tonight to be honest. The ukmo did show abit of promise earlier this evening. But as the old saying goes you can’t make a silk purse out of a pigs ear. At this rate we will be chasing this easterly in July still. On the bright side only 32 days to spring now. I honestly believe that this ssw warming just isn’t going to favour our tiny island. 

What a unbelievable inaccurate post ....... it's 34 days till spring .  

[blizzard81]

Just now, Ice Day said:

Call me old fashioned, but this looks a beaut at 192.  Low dropping into Europe, should move towards the UK in later frames?

 

Deary me, you are so old fashioned

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The 18z is an improvement on the 12z but it's still a pretty poor effort, but it is a step towards the ensembles which is something we want to see, hopefully we'll see further steps towards the mean overnight and tomorrow morning, the GFS rarely makes a huge jump in a single run. 

EC clusters/EPS will be telling on whether the ECM is still fairly isolated within it's own suite. Things to be positive above with the 18z, it's just not quite there yet.

How is it a poor effort? It’s good prime for CAA that cold is going underneath the block towards us.

[blizzard81]

We really do need the ecm to stop being a misery in the morning. 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

It's now heading further north ?

The 12z had it too far north and then we pull in those southerlies,this is better on the regard,we need the hp cell primed to get the benifits out of it,the rollercoaster continues

and still an evolving situation.

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

How is it a poor effort? It’s good prime for CAA that cold is going underneath the block towards us.

Because we're now looking beyond the 23rd before cold air has even touched the UK, it's a poor show when comparing it to the faster models. It's an upgrade on the 12z sure, but at this rate were going to be chasing the Easterly until daffodils start blooming.

[bigdog1]

I am totally confused tonight some saying good  some not so good I can't read charts and the way people are portraying the charts tonight I don't  think I'll ever grasp it.