Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[lorenzo]

The collapse in the profile for the Easterly debate was a NetWx classic, both sides arguing equally valid points imo - one of the best discussions on here in recent yrs.

For now - i think the last few runs have seen slight inter run variations on Atlantic Wave breaking some sharper and immediate, tonight's flatter and drifting.

Forgive my obsession with the Potential Vorticity Animations - these for me help visualise the dynamics in play.

This one from c 250hPa shows the interaction at play and the 'flatter' break, followed by something more substantial circa the 18th 20th. 

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/arctic/anim_EPV_0320.html

Almost a 'dead cat bounce' here as the Canadian segment 'survives' only to receive an utter doing at 10hPa and beyond in the next week - hence the spaghetti from around 19th. As that segment shreds- we are open to all manner of other solutions also.

The animation shows for me the credence in the eventual blocking solution- - and the general direction ..confident in the knowledge that the Canadian segment is going to be under some severe duress and the reduced energy via the SSW will deliver blocking. That is in no doubt whatsover.

We won't get the beautiful GEM solution on every run, - it's on the table and at this point in time any model could have it nailed, it simply is a watch and see.

[Glacier Point]

Just to put this to bed. Any uptick in solar would not have any impact on the set up here, in fact cooling of the outer layers would reinforce the blocking signal coming from above.

[oasis]

4 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Agree 100% with your thinking. I suspect the ops problem is the hi res is over reacting and running with wrong? signals

It would be nice from a coldie's perspective if that was the case. I think someone said it's the biggest stratospheric reversal in many, many years. With all that cold pooling on the models to the north east seems -10 850 temperatures with day time maxes no higher than 3 or 4 degrees are almost guaranteed if the jet energy can dive south. And as mentioned that's the very peak if the sun comes out, from 12pm till 4pm. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

14 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

let me just put this one to bed... this small uptick in solar activity has very little effect on the overall weather pattern. the sunspot number is  currently 20, which under the new system, is not really much. we've had similar and even more over the past few weeks but generally, the trend is downward. it fluctuates regularly and whilst the solar flux (SFU) is currently 78, again, thats not going to cause any major effects on the strat. the lowest it goes is around 68 SFU and in solar maximum its around 150 SFU. 

to re-iterate, solar activity is low and getting lower. in fact, a hell of a lot lower than it was expected to be. this solar cycle is due to bottom out in 2020. it almost has already- 2 years early!

indisputable evidence is growing that we could well be entering a grand solar minimum which in the past, have given us some of the coldest winters in history. occasional flashes of activity from the sun are normal and expected. even in solar minimum. 

so, if this winter doesn't deliver in the end, for whatever reason, (other than the sun) we could well see a historic winter to rival 1962/63 or 1947 in the next couple of years...

Agreed, and for comparison we must maintain the Wolf count eg using same level of telescopic technology as way back....and that puts us as you say heading towards a Grand Minimum.  

Solar cycle 25 to follow... forecast is first Grand minimum dip at 2032....minimum of solar cycle 25.....

 

BFTP

Edited February 14, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

As @nick sussex mentioned earlier, the eps continue to show the ‘GEM cluster’ and accelerated easterly. This really should have gone by now under normal circumstances. Assume that the clusters will show this to be lower than the 50/50 split on th 00z run. If not. We can surely expect an op to soon jump across which would cause carnage on here if it jumped back on the following run!  The ecm op is so strongly Canadian trough extension across the Atlantic towards nw Europe right up to 10 hpa that you wonder how it could be so wrong. 

 

[Cloud 10]

9 minutes ago, Nicholas B said:

They sure did mate back in the good old days on here ?

If memory serves it was Steve Murr,Glacier Point and Brickfielder.

 

[markw2680]

15 minutes ago, Nicholas B said:

They sure did mate back in the good old days on here ?

How can we get to see that? Lol

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

As @nick sussex mentioned earlier, the eps continue to show the ‘GEM cluster’ and accelerated easterly. This really should have gone by now under normal circumstances. Assume that the clusters will show this to be lower than the 50/50 split on th 00z run. If not. We can surely expect an op to soon jump across which would cause carnage on here if it jumped back on the following run!  The ecm op is so strongly Canadian trough extension across the Atlantic towards nw Europe right up to 10 hpa that you wonder how it could be so wrong. 

 

Yes it does seem strange that those ensembles still continue to show that.

The De Bilt  still has a large cluster going by the dew points and wind direction . Aswell as the temps the op is at times between 3 and 5 c warmer than the clustering.

Edited February 14, 2018 by nick sussex

[Flipflop]

I'm no model in depth speculator but what a fascinating read you people contribute will it wont it, so hoping and still clutching at straws we may see some form of winterness to this winter before its too late. Maybe the GFS gives me some lightning in morning to ease the pressure.

 

Del

[SMU]

^^ sadly thats a long time past !! years ago --...

Onto the models - The newly appointed front runner the Ikon is up & running...

[bobbydog]

13 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Just to put this to bed. Any uptick in solar would not have any impact on the set up here, in fact cooling of the outer layers would reinforce the blocking signal coming from above.

i've already put it to bed stewart, you're just tucking it in... 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

No mate was def John Holmes I'm sure, was a fantastic video of the upcoming Winter...brilliant charts, vids, banter...

With respect, I’m not sure that JH and banter are a marriage made in heaven !!

i think you asked about resolution of the ops in the strat earlier - the ops do have higher res up there than the ens. 

[bobbydog]

17 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Sorry I forgot how long does a solar cycle last for?

11 years mate. last one (minimum) 2009.

[The Eagle]

 

ICON looks a slight upgrade on the 12z. 18z only goes to 120 hrs.

Edited February 14, 2018 by The Eagle

[ALL ABOARD]

Icon sticks to its guns.

Yes a given its not held in as high regard as other models but whats striking is that over the last few days it hasnt deviated and that is somthing you would expect from a so called less accurate model. 

 

[Met4Cast]

ICON/IKON/IDON once again sends the Scandi shortwave directly South

Edited February 14, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes it does seem strange that those ensembles still continue to show that.

The De Bilt  still has a large cluster going by the dew points and wind direction . 

Yes Nick,there is a lot gunning for -10 there on the dewpoints,the wind direction gaining momemtum too,a lot there also guuning for easterlies right to the end(45 degrees)

just need the drunken stragglers to disappear and do one off the dutch streets

[nick sussex]

The reason for the will it or won’t it trigger shortwave is partly due to whether a low crossing the USA exits as a separate entity from the ne coast or whether it moves east and phases with the trough energy over southern Greenland .

The phase causes the pivot motion on the low near Iceland between T96 and T120hrs hrs.

This stops the eastwards momentum of that.

You can clearly see its effect if you compare the ECM with the now much loved 18 hrs run ICON model !

[sawan]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

How about you look at the bigger picture.No force from the west here.

Lemmings to the Cliffs please.

Atlantic coming through?

I am no expert in meteorology, whatever I have learnt is from you guys and have great respect for all of you . 

Something else that I have learnt is not to trust FI. It's been nearly 9 weeks since we have started the chase and it is getting further and further away. ECM's verification stats are a lot better than GFS and is consistently showing flatter solution. Unless all big 3 are onboard and easterly is within 96 hrs, I would observe caution.

Sorry Mods if it doesn't fit the criteria of model discussion. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

11 years mate. last one (minimum) 2009.

Average, can be shortened or lengthened depending on state.  Generally high activity can be shorter due to quick turnover  and quieter longer in low activity due to confirmations of changeover

 

BFTP

[Optimus Prime]

4 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

 

ICON looks a slight upgrade on the 12z. 18z only goes to 120 hrs.

But is an upgrade on yesterday's 18z? Putting aside the general trend, that's really what is most important.

Besides that, it's basically garbage compared to the ECM and UKM

[bluearmy]

The eps postage stamps would be useful tonight .......

[nick sussex]

Just now, bluearmy said:

The eps postage stamps would be useful tonight .......

Yes they would be great to see.

Shame the stinges at ECM pulled the free sample we used to have access to .

 

[tight isobar]

The avenue to cold that needs gain..

10hpa already bunsen burn to the displacement of mother lobe.

The traction of eastern seaboard warming- via upper atmos-forcing...changes -hopefully- the situ of de-buckling the lobe for warm air advecting  to correct and angle movement of height align..prefrably..north east...as droping of residule vortex energy into atlantic forces- the slower evo...

Almost a wraping of height meeting into the pole of the now warming energy's..is the ace card.

And pac ridge..punching playing catch up..

[Allseasons-Si]

When was the ICON introduced?

do the met regard this model or is a bin model,to be honest all models are good at short range but the med/long range ones are good for trends

we are still in a status quo but i highly regard the cpc anomoly charts as john holmes has put foreward so many times,but no model is infalable.