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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

But could it go either way ???? If an SSW reverse the winds wouldn’t that make an Easterly the favourite? 

SSW doesn't guarantee cold weather - We could have extensive Northern Blocking and the cold could still miss us if the high isn't orientated favourably, the high could be too far North allowing the Atlantic to flood through, there's a lot that could go wrong, just look at the current OP outputs.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

I feel we are on life support for our Easterly, if it doesn't show in the operationals by the big 3 by tomorrow we are in trouble. 

Edited by snowice
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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Was that the Dec 2012 one?

I'm remaining upbeat as we head towards the 18z, the 12z ensemble was still good for Greenland blocking but given the timescale we wouldn't expect every op run to go in the same direction.   GEFS mean at T324:

gens-21-1-324.png?12

Yes it was. Glacier Point was shocked at the time, he cited an uptick in Solar Activity as the reason for the failure.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

The notion that solar activity impacted the jet by a few MPH creating a shortwave in the wrong place is sadly nonsence-

The models just got it wrong plain & simple- ...

In terms of tonights models theres not a 'huge' amount between the cold or less cold - GFS / GEM V ECM - just a matter of how the high & the subsequent WAA alligns - colder runs are negative in the tilt ( or neutral ) - the milder ones are along the positive side -

plum neutral is the best case scenario..

You are probably right. Solar input wouldn't be so localised/specific to cause a shortwave to be in the wrong place. However, imo it does affect energy in the atlantic sector on a much larger scale. This is the sun we are talking about. Would you believe some think it's quite a powerful beast. Can't think why! 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Was that the Dec 2012 one?

I'm remaining upbeat as we head towards the 18z, the 12z ensemble was still good for Greenland blocking but given the timescale we wouldn't expect every op run to go in the same direction.   GEFS mean at T324:

gens-21-1-324.png?12

The only thing which has remained steadfast is the mean and that’s somewhat good enough for me however we need OPs to smell the coffee quick. And as to solar activity it was modest, it’s plummeted again. 

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
8 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

SSW doesn't guarantee cold weather - We could have extensive Northern Blocking and the cold could still miss us if the high isn't orientated favourably, the high could be too far North allowing the Atlantic to flood through, there's a lot that could go wrong, just look at the current OP outputs.

Agreed 

 

I’m looking at the Op output ?? They can be as wrong as any other member

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

What the hell is going on with ops at the moment. Another solid Mean.

687A5716-0D8B-4C77-A27E-5E7CD31B6E52.thumb.png.1354ee815a495eeda9e126d1c3348389.png

Yes and goes on to produce even better by 240,outstanding mean and the op is a big outlier(London)

EDH1-240.GIF?14-0graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=300&y=148&run=1

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Just a thought, but could the higher resolution of the good models ops actually be lowering their accuracy at this moment in time? Maybe the operationals are picking up in more detail other parts of the climate system like GWO and MJO, parts which are against mega extensive blocking, thus diluting higher blocking in them, while the lower resolution runs are not able to pick up so much detail on the MJO/GWO and are instead more purely reacting to the overwhelming stratospheric signal? Hence more extensive northerly blocking in the lower resolution runs and the lower resolution models? 

Would anyone know if the higher resolution runs are more higher resolution relative to lower resolutions runs in the strat or with regards to tropical feedbacks? @chionomaniac @Steve Murr @bluearmy  @Catacol Plus anyone else interested who could answer my question. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Well.. if small solar upticks can completely and utterly change a weather pattern then what's the point of even looking at models past 72hrs? I mean, it quite literally does render them pointless. 

I'm not buying into that, an uptick causes a response instantly but a quiet sun doesn't seem to have any effect in getting us cold weather unless it's quiet for a prolonged period of time? Hmmmm

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5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

You are probably right. Solar input wouldn't be so localised/specific to cause a shortwave to be in the wrong place. However, imo it does affect energy in the atlantic sector on a much larger scale. This is the sun we are talking about. Would you believe some think it's quite a powerful beast. Can't think why! 

No one said it doesnt effect the net energy in the system, its just to much of a coincidental event that in 15 years of people discussing net energy of the jet that a solar burst could suddenly arrive on the scene at the precise moment where it would suddenly scupper an evolution that was 4 days ahead-

No one had mentioned the sun before in isolation & noone has mentioned it again-

onto the ECM op- its 2.5c warmer at day 10 than the mean that has now dropped to 2c... ( from 3-4 before )

So the signal is getting stronger--

 

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No one said it doesnt effect the net energy in the system, its just to much of a coincidental event that in 15 years of people discussing net energy of the jet that a solar burst coukd suddenly arrive on the scene at the precise moment where it would suddenly scupper an evolution -

No one had mentioned the sun before in isolation & noone has mentioned it again-

onto the ECM op- its 2.5c warmer at day 10 than the mean that has now dropped to 2c... ( from 3-4 before )

So the signal is getting stronger--

 

 

Well, at least we can agree on one thing :) Let's just hope the morning ecm op stops the misery trend of it's last few predecessors. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The cpc is still solid on the block to our north

6-10 & 8-14 day outlook

610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

shift that...

Russian-Stonehenge-Megalith-huge-block.j

HAPPY BLOCKINGTINE'S DAY:D

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

If the spike in solar activity did have an impact the models wouldn’t know yet these charged solar particles or whatever they are set to hit the earth tomorrow it isn’t instantaneous.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The cpc is still solid on the block to our north

6-10 & 8-14 day outlook

610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

shift that...

Russian-Stonehenge-Megalith-huge-block.j

That is some block and as for the suns influence on upcoming events it will be like a butterfly farting in the breeze compared to what the SSW is going to produce. It’s coming just be a little more patient :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Are you and Glacier Point friends...I'm sure you did a video together?

With your headed name..fifty shades of!

And talk of persons doing videos together...you somewhat concern me !!?

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Noticed a lot of miniature disturbance on close-up views of the ECM run. Can't imagine all of those will actually turn up and on that basis it really feels like a case of bad luck that we've seen yet another operational run manage to stop the advance from the east with some poorly placed 'lingering lows'. There's also that little feature that splits off the low by the Azores, and that's just devious.

I do have a slight concern though that the main focus of stratospheric heights is a bit further away than we'd like and perhaps the models are right to explore outcomes in which the HLB doesn't quite make it far enough south and west prior to the second phase of impacts that turn the NAO negative (or more negative in the case of GFS... but I feel it's jumping the gun a bit with how soon that unfolds).

Not sure if it actually makes sense for the tropospheric high to sit right underneath the stratospheric one though; I can't see many - if any (not all examples looked at yet...) - historical cases in which the easterlies didn't make it down to at least a little south of 60N and in fact it often gets close to 50 N.

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7 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

That is some block and as for the suns influence on upcoming events it will be like a butterfly farting in the breeze compared to what the SSW is going to produce. It’s coming just be a little more patient :cold:

Where does the energy for a ssw come from?

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No one said it doesnt effect the net energy in the system, its just to much of a coincidental event that in 15 years of people discussing net energy of the jet that a solar burst could suddenly arrive on the scene at the precise moment where it would suddenly scupper an evolution that was 4 days ahead-

No one had mentioned the sun before in isolation & noone has mentioned it again-

onto the ECM op- its 2.5c warmer at day 10 than the mean that has now dropped to 2c... ( from 3-4 before )

So the signal is getting stronger--

 

 

Yes .....I have been musing this idea, and imo the solar bursts can imo ‘perturb’ the jetstream and can cause spoilers (increase in LP depth and direction) and indeed also increase impacts favourably on a short timeframe.

However, the talk of current solar sunspot scuppering the potential set up.....no I don’t buy that.  I think it’s big part of why we are getting to where we may be going

Just my opinion and layman research

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
27 minutes ago, oasis said:

Just a thought, but could the higher resolution of the good models ops actually be lowering their accuracy at this moment in time? Maybe the operationals are picking up in more detail other parts of the climate system like GWO and MJO, parts which are against mega extensive blocking, thus diluting higher blocking in them, while the lower resolution runs are not able to pick up so much detail on the MJO/GWO and are instead more purely reacting to the overwhelming stratospheric signal? Hence more extensive northerly blocking in the lower resolution runs and the lower resolution models? 

Would anyone know if the higher resolution runs are more higher resolution relative to lower resolutions runs in the strat or with regards to tropical feedbacks? @chionomaniac @Steve Murr @bluearmy  @Catacol Plus anyone else interested who could answer my question. 

Agree 100% with your thinking. I suspect the ops problem is the hi res is over reacting and running with wrong? signals

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 hour ago, Fingers said:

Sunspots on the decline again and will soon decay away and leave our view on the solar disc. Let’s hope for a quiet period and a period of spotless days. I was expecting more heights to our north and a bleeding/easing out of the purples over Greenland 10 days after the wind reversal but keeping the faith! 

DC3F4DA2-65D1-48A3-AAB3-D9D7267E3258.jpeg

FCC40505-E1F0-4F8B-B197-F201C5E8E3A7.png

The sun is quiet.....quietest for 100 years and getting quiter

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
3 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

 Just thought they were friends and did a weather video together...so get off your high horse..Tata..

They sure did mate back in the good old days on here ?

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

let me just put this one to bed... this small uptick in solar activity has very little effect on the overall weather pattern. the sunspot number is  currently 20, which under the new system, is not really much. we've had similar and even more over the past few weeks but generally, the trend is downward. it fluctuates regularly and whilst the solar flux (SFU) is currently 78, again, thats not going to cause any major effects on the strat. the lowest it goes is around 68 SFU and in solar maximum its around 150 SFU. 

to re-iterate, solar activity is low and getting lower. in fact, a hell of a lot lower than it was expected to be. this solar cycle is due to bottom out in 2020. it almost has already- 2 years early!

wolfjmms.thumb.png.f93146ed4778368b6b16b8e268315eaa.png

indisputable evidence is growing that we could well be entering a grand solar minimum which in the past, have given us some of the coldest winters in history. occasional flashes of activity from the sun are normal and expected. even in solar minimum. 

so, if this winter doesn't deliver in the end, for whatever reason, (other than the sun) we could well see a historic winter to rival 1962/63 or 1947 in the next couple of years...

Sorry I forgot how long does a solar cycle last for?

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