Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[nick sussex]

The ECM ensemble spreads still show the trigger shorwave getting further sw.

Quite a large spread of 850s running east to west.

But we need to see an ECM op go with one of those better ensembles and stop churning out this rubbish in its later outputs.

[Snowjokes92]

Could someone please point out to me the all important trigger shortwave we need on the charts

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

maybe look at the UKMO 168...

Are you saying ukmo is not good? 

Edited February 14, 2018 by That ECM

[Daniel*]

It’s great to have one of the top 3 on progressive side of NAVGEM / GEM etc - this gives some credibility to these quicker easterly solutions.  

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM ensemble spreads still show the trigger shorwave getting further sw.

Quite a large spread of 850s running east to west.

But we need to see an ECM op go with one of those better ensembles and stop churning out this rubbish in its later outputs.

Yep, until an op churns out a stonker, I will have little faith in the ens. 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Are you saying ukmo is not good? 

No, he is saying the opposite. 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 

But we need to see an ECM op go with one of those better ensembles and stop churning out this rubbish in its later outputs.

The problem is we don't know whether it's rubbish or not yet, it could be right..I sincerely hope it's just a wobble though...for all coldies sakes!

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Yep, until an op churns out a stonker, I will have little faith in the ens. 

Mm UKMO has done that sort of very good chart that at T+168 I think this is significant. 

[Dunstable Snow]

It was always going to be a tortuous journey... A really encouraging UKMO 168. I know its a long time since we had a proper easterly but I have been following this forum and the snow watch before hand for many years and I don't ever remember one being counted down smoothly from day 10. Perhaps the closest we got to that was December 2010. I am still of the opinion that if we are going to get our Easterly it will suddenly appear at day 5/6 in the major model operational's and then the stress will be all about orientation of the high, the strength of the flow and depth of the incoming cold.

The cold lovers amongst us deserve a break before winters end ....

[Banbury]

33 minutes ago, sawan said:

The only reliable model imo is the UKMO which @96 hrs looks really good...

Another 24 hrs i.e. @120hrs and this still not too bad......

and @144hrs, clearly succumbing to the force from the west, I think tomorrows UKMO will show a complete collapse of the so called "Beast from the East" is dead.

Then if it does well done you but it will be against the Mets thoughts 

[nick sussex]

Just now, Frosty. said:

The problem is we don't know whether it's rubbish or not yet, it could be right..I sincerely hope it's just a wobble though...for all coldies sakes!

I’m not saying the rubbish won’t verify , I was talking more that it’s rubbish in terms of cold.

We need an ECM op to move to the easterly asap like tomorrow morning !

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Do we not listen to people in here, getting hung up by a few operational  runs that obviously during a record breaking ssw will change on the next run. I'm 100%confident with what I have seen we will see an easterly of some sort, the extent or how cold is up for questioning.next run please. 

[Scandinavian High.]

Hi everyone we are in an  exciting period model watching more twist and turns to come and upgrades to .. its confusing sometimes in here some folks saying cold easterlys are on then some folks saying dead in water ..

Edited February 14, 2018 by abbie123

[london-snow]

7 minutes ago, Dunstable Snow said:

It was always going to be a tortuous journey... A really encouraging UKMO 168. I know its a long time since we had a proper easterly but I have been following this forum and the snow watch before hand for many years and I don't ever remember one being counted down smoothly from day 10. Perhaps the closest we got to that was December 2010. I am still of the opinion that if we are going to get our Easterly it will suddenly appear at day 5/6 in the major model operational's and then the stress will be all about orientation of the high, the strength of the flow and depth of the incoming cold.

The cold lovers amongst us deserve a break before winters end ....

I am looking forward to our trip down to Bristol next wedensday could be a bit dicey if what we have seen verifies..

Also agree in the fact that I think we will see a sudden straight route to cold from the east around the day 6 timeframe.

[ANYWEATHER]

Ask yourselves ,how many times have true memorable easterlies really delivered in the last 100 years? Perhaps five 

[Met4Cast]

Absolutely no clearer on the way forward based on the ensembles really

The spread is just ridiculous it could quite literally go either way. Considering the random massive PPN spike from the OP though I think it's safe to bin that one. Something has to give one way or the other soon, the trigger shortwave is quite literally 4 days away now.

[Bricriu]

30 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Thank you for that very detailed explanation, much appreciated. Your reference to increased solar interference is something I am very interested in. I have noticed over the years that when the sun suddenly decides to burst into life, the atlantic almost simultaneously ramps up as well. There is definitely a connection. The trouble is, the increased solar activity always seems to happen just when all the other pieces of our cold jigsaw fall into place. Funny that, isn't it? 

It - solar activity- scuppered Glacier Point's easterly a few years ago

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

It - solar activity- scuppered Glacier Point's easterly a few years ago

I'm very glad some remember these things. Solar activity is very important. 

Edited February 14, 2018 by blizzard81

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Like let's try this let's all toss a coin heads for easterly tales for southerly. This I what it's going to come down too. Ecm will be better tomorrow have faith lol 

 

P S I landed on Heads easterly try it lol

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean at least ends better than the op with a continental flow towards the end.

[Banbury]

9 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Absolutely no clearer on the way forward based on the ensembles really

The spread is just ridiculous it could quite literally go either way. Considering the random massive PPN spike from the OP though I think it's safe to bin that one. Something has to give one way or the other soon, the trigger shortwave is quite literally 4 days away now.

But could it go either way ???? If an SSW reverse the winds wouldn’t that make an Easterly the favourite? 

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I'm very glad some remember these things. Solar activity is very important. 

The notion that solar activity impacted the jet by a few MPH creating a shortwave in the wrong place is sadly nonsence-

The models just got it wrong plain & simple- ...

In terms of tonights models theres not a 'huge' amount between the cold or less cold - GFS / GEM V ECM - just a matter of how the high & the subsequent WAA alligns - colder runs are negative in the tilt ( or neutral ) - the milder ones are along the positive side -

plum neutral is the best case scenario..

[fulham snow]

23 minutes ago, Dunstable Snow said:

It was always going to be a tortuous journey... A really encouraging UKMO 168. I know its a long time since we had a proper easterly but I have been following this forum and the snow watch before hand for many years and I don't ever remember one being counted down smoothly from day 10. Perhaps the closest we got to that was December 2010. I am still of the opinion that if we are going to get our Easterly it will suddenly appear at day 5/6 in the major model operational's and then the stress will be all about orientation of the high, the strength of the flow and depth of the incoming cold.

The cold lovers amongst us deserve a break before winters end ....

Hi mr FFC

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

It - solar activity- scuppered Glacier Point's easterly a few years ago

Was that the Dec 2012 one?

I'm remaining upbeat as we head towards the 18z, the 12z ensemble was still good for Greenland blocking but given the timescale we wouldn't expect every op run to go in the same direction.   GEFS mean at T324:

[karlos1983]

What the hell is going on with ops at the moment. Another solid Mean.