Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM decides to take yet another different route.

Colder air comes in earlier and it tries to save the trigger shortwave but someone seems to have forgotten to tell the PV there was a SSW.

By day ten the SSW never happened and a rampant PV arrives over Greenland .

Overall barring the smaller models we’re going round in circles and it’s now becoming tiresome .

Confidence in a decent easterly before we’re pushing around our simmer frames is beginning to sink .

It doesn’t matter how many ensembles show an easterly if the ops don’t want to know eventually those will give up the ghost aswell.

 

Tbf nick- i'd much rather consistancy via ens...than out of kilter miss firing operationals...

The continued miss-dynamical synoptics..are quite laughable..whereas ensemble'ing is quite solid in format.

I think its a big case here of operation miss diagnostics, and its indeed those -raw-data (ops) that lag...no pun intended @lag @response

Edited February 14, 2018 by tight isobar

[frosty ground]

GFS op run has plenty of support from the ensembles and the ecm has the same theme.... a new partern is emergng 

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM decides to take yet another different route.

Colder air comes in earlier and it tries to save the trigger shortwave but someone seems to have forgotten to tell the PV there was a SSW.

By day ten the SSW never happened and a rampant PV arrives over Greenland .

Overall barring the smaller models we’re going round in circles and it’s now becoming tiresome .

Confidence in a decent easterly before we’re pushing around our zimmer frames is beginning to sink .

It doesn’t matter how many ensembles show an easterly if the ops don’t want to know eventually those will give up the ghost aswell.

 

Exactly what I was trying to get across last night. As most know, the ops are run at higher resolution and even the gfs 12z op wants to make more of the Atlantic energy. Very poor trends today with the operational runs. 

[Frosty.]

I wasn't expecting to post charts like this @ T+240 on the Ecm 12z!..this model watching can be bad for one's health!

[nick sussex]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Tbf nick- i'd much rather consistancy via ens...than out of kilter miss firing operationals...

The continued miss-dynamical synoptics..are quite laughable..whereas ensemble'ing is quite solid in format.

I think its a big case here of operation miss diagnostics, and its indeed those -raw-data (ops) that lag...no pun intended @lag @response

The ops normally should have a better handle on the evolution upto day 7.

Eventually if the op keeps churning out underwhelming runs we’ll reach a point of no return as the ensembles switch aswell.

The ECM was a bit better earlier then it hit the buffers . But this easterly isn’t getting any closer in the outputs if at all.

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Wowsers, just looked at the 12z GEM and boy that's a peach of a run!!

with ops like this and the huge spread on the GFS ens I reckon we are still in with a decent chance of an earlier onset of the cold, if not im sure it will get in eventually.

 

When has the gem ever trumped the other models at day 6/7? Probably never. 

[pyrotech]

14 minutes ago, ptow said:

Just as many going for +5 as -10.  A few towards-15 but not many

What that actually shows is that day 5 we have wide scatter,  day 7 and its about as wide as you can get From plus 9 too minus 13

What its telling us is that the uncertainty starts in quite a big way, at day 5.

Why?

Well we do not see a reversal at 30mb until 18th - which is 4 days away

Huge difference in where it goes depending on very small difference in atmosphere when it actually does reverse,  Few hours earlier or later, slight difference on positions of the high and low's. Orientation of the high. Even then we are waiting for the reversal lower down. 

Until then all the models will play with different ideas. The data is run from the point its taken and under normal conditions its fairly predictable, With this its a different ball game.

There is no default as such, but the models are trying as always to predict what will happen, but with an added ingredient in the mix that increases the shannon Entrope.

We will have this until 17th at least and maybe after 22nd until the models finally get a idea of what is most likely.  we just have to be patient and try not to get excited or disappointed on each run. Trends will become the most useful guide as we head into that period, Current trend is High pressure moving North . You should also notice on that chart a very important feature and that is that the mean  is lower than the long term mean. That hints that it will be colder than average.   

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Exactly what I was trying to get across last night. As most know, the ops are run at higher resolution and even the gfs 12z op wants to make more of the Atlantic energy. Very poor trends today with the operational runs. 

Let me reiterate..

Although op @higher res -example-..

Ensembles have a distinct -upper hand on re-shuffle and decipher time!!..

And given the kidney punch of the atomspheric shock..its-son-leading daddy here...far far to much emphasis on reversal decipher miss formats atm!!!

Things will iron out...amd ens route is leading the format here...its mathmaticaly clear..

Edited February 14, 2018 by tight isobar

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Tbf nick- i'd much rather consistancy via ens...than out of kilter miss firing operationals...

The continued miss-dynamical synoptics..are quite laughable..whereas ensemble'ing is quite solid in format.

I think its a big case here of operation miss diagnostics, and its indeed those -raw-data (ops) that lag...no pun intended @lag @response

Why are the operational runs 'out of kilter miss firers' at relatively short range all of a sudden?

[Timmytour]

They seek it here

They seek it there

The coldies seek it everywhere

It's there at 240

But never 120

That damned elusive Easterly

 

 

[sawan]

The only reliable model imo is the UKMO which @96 hrs looks really good...

Another 24 hrs i.e. @120hrs and this still not too bad......

and @144hrs, clearly succumbing to the force from the west, I think tomorrows UKMO will show a complete collapse of the so called "Beast from the East" is dead.

[pyrotech]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Why are the operational runs 'out of kilter miss firers' at relatively short range all of a sudden?

Too many factors

Firstly MJO would indicate with its phase 14 days ago that high pressure should push to our NorthEast

SSW should push everything Westwards - so a contrast here between two major drivers.

A solar wind combined with a CME will hit the Earth tomorrow effecting the Poles, 

So already some major factors which will all effect output

In addition we have the winds at higher altitude reversing and this is moving lower in the atmosphere, timing can vary, as can the strength. In addition where is everything in the troposphere when winds reverse. 

All that on top of everything else that the computers normally have to deal with.

The data higher up will be less than at the surface for higher resolution, so these big changes higher up will be less well recorded and due to the SSW being a less common event, the data inputted will be less good. I mean by that, that the data to move forwards is less well known by human computer data to compute it, plus we have less data from previous SSW events for the computers to learn how to deal with it. The best thing for the computers is a positive NAO as it has more data over more time to understand small implications

[reef]

Although you can't predict exactly at this range, today's models have so far told us quite a lot. Firstly, there's been a definite trend for the high pressure which was supposed to be in situ over the UK after the weekend to be pushed forwards in time and be much weaker when it finally appears. The next trend is for the Atlantic to be much stronger with the high eventually establishing further to the east and leaving us in more of a southerly or south-easterly flow:

The GFS 06z/12z Op runs and ECM 12z have all shown this trend now. It has the effect of preventing a first bite of the cherry and leaving us again looking into FI for another go. Beyond that we can't really tell much. Even at T+144 the ECM and GFS would give vastly different weather on the ground under flabby high pressure: ECM has an injection of polar maritime air beforehand, giving sunny days and frosty nights, whereas the GFS has warmer uppers and potentially more cloud trapped in the high. Depending on which of these occurs, the month-end CET could be massively different.

It all depends how the SSW has affected things. There has been a clear trend this winter for the polar vortex over Canada to be utterly relentless. The question is whether over the next few days the models show this to still be the case this time, or whether it will finally relent enough to give us our cold spell...eventually.

Edited February 14, 2018 by reef

[winterof79]

12 minutes ago, sawan said:

The only reliable model imo is the UKMO which @96 hrs looks really good...

Another 24 hrs i.e. @120hrs and this still not too bad......

and @144hrs, clearly succumbing to the force from the west, I think tomorrows UKMO will show a complete collapse of the so called "Beast from the East" is dead.

How about you look at the bigger picture.No force from the west here.

Lemmings to the Cliffs please.

Atlantic coming through?

Edited February 14, 2018 by winterof79

[tight isobar]

Ok- quite clearly from +96 hrs via three mains..

The energy- and atmospheric +3 layer indications are stark...from mid warming modeling/to top warming @different layer thermals..

This is already miss-managed via three operational outs!!..

And has major ramifications @blocking-@sea level...

The ops are like high noon arguing..while the ens and support sit back and cash in...

Give me a moment to add some data at hpa levels to note the formats...of which im getting at!!!!

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

Too many factors

Firstly MJO would indicate with its phase 14 days ago that high pressure should push to our NorthEast

SSW should push everything Westwards - so a contrast here between two major drivers.

A solar wind combined with a CME will hit the Earth tomorrow effecting the Poles, 

So already some major factors which will all effect output

In addition we have the winds at higher altitude reversing and this is moving lower in the atmosphere, timing can vary, as can the strength. In addition where is everything in the troposphere when winds reverse. 

All that on top of everything else that the computers normally have to deal with.

The data higher up will be less than at the surface for higher resolution, so these big changes higher up will be less well recorded and due to the SSW being a less common event, the data inputted will be less good. I mean by that, that the data to move forwards is less well known by human computer data to compute it, plus we have less data from previous SSW events for the computers to learn how to deal with it. The best thing for the computers is a positive NAO as it has more data over more time to understand small implications

Thank you for that very detailed explanation, much appreciated. Your reference to increased solar interference is something I am very interested in. I have noticed over the years that when the sun suddenly decides to burst into life, the atlantic almost simultaneously ramps up as well. There is definitely a connection. The trouble is, the increased solar activity always seems to happen just when all the other pieces of our cold jigsaw fall into place. Funny that, isn't it? 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended looks a bit more SE'ly? shower activity picking up from that direction

[blizzard81]

They say every dog has it's day. Let's hope it is finally the turn of the gem and jma to have their day. 

[SMU]

1 hour ago, ITSY said:

Yup. Nothing to see here

Hot off the press ECM mean-

216- No issues here - Greenland wedge more neutral in its tilt-

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks a bit more SE'ly? shower activity picking up from that direction

As much as it's a pain not seeing the np that looks encouraging.

[SMU]

23 minutes ago, sawan said:

The only reliable model imo is the UKMO which @96 hrs looks really good...

Another 24 hrs i.e. @120hrs and this still not too bad......

and @144hrs, clearly succumbing to the force from the west, I think tomorrows UKMO will show a complete collapse of the so called "Beast from the East" is dead.

maybe look at the UKMO 168...

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks a bit more SE'ly? shower activity picking up from that direction

Mm more easterly I’d say. Good T168.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

22 minutes ago, sawan said:

The only reliable model imo is the UKMO which @96 hrs looks really good...

Another 24 hrs i.e. @120hrs and this still not too bad......

and @144hrs, clearly succumbing to the force from the west, I think tomorrows UKMO will show a complete collapse of the so called "Beast from the East" is dead.

What on Earth are you talking about, primed for an ESE flow as the western edge of the HP balloons north....just to start with.  That LP west of the Azores will play its part

 

BFTP 

[January Snowstorm]

Looks a very good ukmo 168hrs to me with easterly flow being established.

My own opinion is that there's simply too many experts (inc meto) on board for this not to happen 

What is confusing though is how none of the big 3 had a good run

[Fingers]

Sunspots on the decline again and will soon decay away and leave our view on the solar disc. Let’s hope for a quiet period and a period of spotless days. I was expecting more heights to our north and a bleeding/easing out of the purples over Greenland 10 days after the wind reversal but keeping the faith!