Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[SMU]

Another awful ECM - might be better @192 but it really has been dreadful over the last 5 days - for inconsistency & overall blocking theme...

[SMU]

JMA sits better with me with a diluted down trigger low

[chris55]

Well I was quite liking the ECM at at 168, looks like it has potential.

Also looking at the 12z ens from GFS they just highlight what a crazy period of model watching we have coming up, they are all over the place, but with high stakes comes high rewards 

Edited February 14, 2018 by chris55

[london-snow]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Another awful ECM - might be better @192 but it really has been dreadful over the last 5 days - for inconsistency & overall blocking theme...

So has near every other model. Op’s are clueless atm ensembles are what i am intrigued by,

All this ‘We won’t get the first attempt’ & ‘Our boat has sailed’ to me is utter nonsense whilst we have no clear trend in the 5+ day timeline..

Edited February 14, 2018 by london-snow

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

JMA sits better with me with a diluted down trigger low

People may find or think latching on to the JMA is extreme straw clutching but considering the Japanese model caters for a small island, don`t knock it (well you know, until is shows what the ECM is showing).

[ptow]

48 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

And here they are ?

Just as many going for +5 as -10.  A few towards-15 but not many

[Johnp]

5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

192 could be great....

Oh well, we all make mistakes right?

Can we really ignore several poor consecutive ecm runs? I'm starting to smell a rat.

It's also very odd that all cannon fodder models are great, but the so called elite models are bobbins.

 

Edited February 14, 2018 by Johnp

[Captain Shortwave]

At day 4 we have an area of low pressure exit the US, but somehow it manages to take an eternity to interact with the deep low heights towards Greenland. If this interacts earlier you would see the heights close to the UK drive NNE and allow the cold air to our east to back westwards much more quickly.

      

A lot of uncertainties regarding that interaction between that low and the tropospheric vortex over Greenland, this could act as a catalyst to dig low heights a lot further south in the Atlantic in the earlier timeframes which would be a big help going forward. I must admit I cannot see that low trundle aimlessly towards the Azores.Okay the trough finally begins to dig south but it takes a very long time to do so.

 

[Met4Cast]

24 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

ECM takes the trigger shortwave South-East over Scandi, South would be better but it's still much better than the GFS which sends it NE

This is probably going to be a good run.

Nevermind. 

I suspect the ECM will be a warm outlier yet again, but it's slightly concerning how the OPS/Control runs just aren't going for this now, given their high resolution you'd think they would be picking it up. It's very much Ops vs their ensemble suites at the moment, very odd.

[Mucka]

Here are all the 144 charts for comparison. Anyone saying "anything" is nailed on with this sort of spread in the semi-reliable is frankly talking bllocks.

ECM, UKMO, GFS, JMA, ICON, GEM

[karlos1983]

Spot on @Mucka , in actual fact, they look different even before D6. So who knows which way this goes next week. Hopefully the GEM 

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Here are all the 144 charts for comparison. Anyone saying "anything" is nailed on with this sort of spread in the semi-reliable is frankly talking bllocks.

ECM, UKMO, GFS, JMA, ICON, GEM

Looking at all these the ECM still looks way off the mark 

[markw2680]

Icon and gem are what we wana start to see across the board, tbh jma isn’t bad either though

[ALL ABOARD]

How we go from this 

 

To this 

 

Given the major warming and reversal in winds is beyond me? 

ECM just wants to keep the PV angry where as all other models at least attempt to put it under pressure...

Even by 240 its gaining in strength ;s

[ICE COLD]

people I wouldn't worry there is not one bit of consistency. Look at the Day 10 chart from ECM completely Different from this morning ?

[Purga]

Still looking like a cold spell is on course for the end of the month. No real changes in the last 24 hrs. The general trend is towards colder weather later this month and the two clusters within the ENS will invariably switch one or two members with each update.

Of note is the METO update today. Their choice of words are very wintry for any part of winter. They have been pretty consistent and the as have the ENS.

The only inconsistencies are the op runs which is to be expected considering the unprecedented events in the Stratosphere SSW.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

True but the ECM is still resonating the highest verification stats, GFS performing below the Gem...not forgetting the ECM incorporates the Berlin strat data into its model run....Me... I think a very angry Canadian vortex doesn't want to leave its home quietly...Seems to be spewing energy out as it leaves pressuring any block.

I’d be worried - but not with the latest MOGREPS update ?

[nick sussex]

The ECM decides to take yet another different route.

Colder air comes in earlier and it tries to save the trigger shortwave but someone seems to have forgotten to tell the PV there was a SSW.

By day ten the SSW never happened and a rampant PV arrives over Greenland .

Overall barring the smaller models we’re going round in circles and it’s now becoming tiresome .

Confidence in a decent easterly before we’re pushing around our zimmer frames is beginning to sink .

It doesn’t matter how many ensembles show an easterly if the ops don’t want to know eventually those will give up the ghost aswell.

 

Edited February 14, 2018 by nick sussex

[chris55]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Spot on @Mucka , in actual fact, they look different even before D6. So who knows which way this goes next week. Hopefully the GEM 

Wowsers, just looked at the 12z GEM and boy that's a peach of a run!!

with ops like this and the huge spread on the GFS ens I reckon we are still in with a decent chance of an earlier onset of the cold, if not im sure it will get in eventually.

 

[Froze were the Days]

Interesting that ICON, JMA and GEM are posted as they look better re: cold synoptics, if you took them out of the equation at 120z your left with far less hope with the 'big 3' both UKMO and GFS look fairly flat over the high pressure stationed near the UK and the ECM well...

are we getting anywhere this February?

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

True but the ECM is still resonating the highest verification stats, GFS performing below the Gem...not forgetting the ECM incorporates the Berlin strat data into its model run....Me... I think a very angry Canadian vortex doesn't want to leave its home quietly...Seems to be spewing energy out as it leaves pressuring any block.

It may be best on the stats but the ECM as been donkey ? Lately as have all the others . There is no consistency at all not even at day 6  . Look at the ensembles . 

[The Beast From The East]

29 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

No comment on the ECM - wonder why ☹️

Day 10 looks ok ??

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’d be worried - but not with the latest MOGREPS update ?

Come on Ali share with us mere mortals ( who have just got in and are catching up) what's been said about mogreps? Has Ian been tweeting? 

[Day 10]

This is what we have then, t96 fairly good agreement, high pressure building in

Temperatures on the mild side

t120 GFS & UKMO still fairly close together

However ECM & GEM starting to diverge with the GEM showing the first signs of an Easterly influence

By 144 divergence complete with as it stands the GEM the pick of the bunch.

GEM

There really is no point in fretting about anything further ahead.

 

 

Edited February 14, 2018 by Day 10

[blizzard81]

17 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Oh well, we all make mistakes right?

Can we really ignore several poor consecutive ecm runs? I'm starting to smell a rat.

It's also very odd that all cannon fodder models are great, but the so called elite models are bobbins.

 

My thoughts exactly. From 15 years experience in watching the models, when the lesser known models are the only ones throwing out the eye candy we really do need to start hearing the alarm bells. One question for the more learned on here. How come the pv to our north west expands and strengthens from day 7 on the ecm?