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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

06z / 12z mean

please do spot the differences, I’m struggling 

D235BA6E-8F6A-46B4-82B8-F7101182D3A5.thumb.png.6f959763a8aa491c928f785cb9ef76e8.png2F5F671D-1683-445D-A40B-DCD5DA1F8640.thumb.png.957e3cdbb07817cbe8768a5b7410bb09.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
12 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Really? They are up to T276 on WZ as far as I can see. Well I'd say they are on a par with the number of -5C members

Runs with T850s above 0C at T240 in Southern England = 10
Runs with T850s below -5C at T240 in Southern England = 7

A fair few have the cold pool very close by though but remaining just a bit too far away from us.

Are you sure . The ensembles usually dribble out and take about 45 mins to complete? 

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
21 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Today's top 3 most reliable models:

 

1. ICON

2. GEM

3. NAVGEM

 

The rest are duds. Especially that ECM, terrible model -  so inconsistent and all round awful.

Unless it shows a cracking easterly blizzard of course - then it gets the Oscar..:rofl:

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Just now, ICE COLD said:

Are you sure . The ensembles usually dribble out and take about 45 mins to complete? 

I'm not sure what is going on :rofl:, I saw them upto T276 about 5 minutes ago and now then have suddenly gone back to T132! WZ playing mind games with me...

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Have to say, the endurance of the high over the UK is extended across the GEFS suite - at least to my eye within the T168 timeframe. 12Z mean vs 06Z - stronger UK high, easily onset slightly delayed at least. Correct me if I’m wrong but that’s my interpretation

 

F4F226F4-E37B-413D-8E09-7C836D05E83D.png

EE6E38E2-CC18-4184-8980-25EFA7177271.png

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

06z / 12z mean

please do spot the differences, I’m struggling 

D235BA6E-8F6A-46B4-82B8-F7101182D3A5.thumb.png.6f959763a8aa491c928f785cb9ef76e8.png2F5F671D-1683-445D-A40B-DCD5DA1F8640.thumb.png.957e3cdbb07817cbe8768a5b7410bb09.png

Really is almost impossible to tell. From what I see the low coming out the south coast of Greenland is a little stronger, high pressure over UK a little more SE, all in all minuscule differences which shouldn't have much of an impact to the general pattern that is evolving. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Well I keep trying to push the fat lady into the closet but she keeps coming out with songs from GFS and ECM with odes to spring and requiem for winter. Too be honest deep FI has been producing easterlies off and on all winter and will probably keep showing them most of spring. In summer it will phantom Spanish plumes.

Anyway yet another in long line of rubbish gfs so can ECM deliver?

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

I'm not sure what is going on :rofl:, I saw them upto T276 about 5 minutes ago and now then have suddenly gone back to T132! WZ playing mind games with me...

Yer lol . They won't be complete until around 45 min from when the op is complete. They update gradually ?

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Just now, ICE COLD said:

Yer lol . They won't be complete until around 45 min from when the op is complete. They update gradually ?

Lol! Well I remember off the top of my head ensemble members 2,3,4 and 5 all showed deep Azores low's with SW winds heading to the UK at around T240.... lets hope I was just seeing things and not seeing the output ahead of everybody else :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

It is, I wonder how often the op is completely at odds with its suite and then verifies? Mind you, this is a UK cold spell we're talking about.

Sadly the operational can be proved right due to the timeframe we are referring to. This is simply due to the higher resolution.

I would love to be proved wrong and the likes of the GEM to be right but until the UKMO/ECM are on board I am sitting on the fence. My fear is any delay of the E,ly only allows another something else to go wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Again looking into deep FI and we see LP attacking on GFS on a southerly track around 26-28. I have had this in mind as per ramblings thinking this will advect coldest NE surge beginning of March.

Again though this is FI and getting a cold set up before for me is looking solid still

 

UKMO would be cold by t192, GEM very clean.  

BFTP

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

I think we could end up having BBQ'S rather than sledging imo.

Looking at the 12z.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
2 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

I think we could end up having BBQ'S rather than sledging imo.

Looking at the 12z.

What are you looking at?? GFS 12z is primarily cool, cold enough for snow at times. 

A7744704-EDFF-4A53-AD92-4AAAEFBDDFCD.thumb.png.76b2f159756879c7c3037d9902936aa0.png6ACF2F47-6A38-4B87-A2C9-15475885FF29.thumb.png.52a9197d0cdc9d66f97bbd7e6f992464.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
22 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Interesting that every GFS ens has the trigger shortwave except the operational !!!!

It's a really weird situation at just 4-5 day's range. 

With the sudden deceleration of zonal winds hitting a trough N of the UK, a split of low heights with a small low dropping S through Scandinavia makes a lot of sense, and yet the operational of the 'main' models have really gone off that idea for some reason.


With respect to GFS' huge troughs pushing the cold boundary too far N for many of us, I can remember the same behaviour occurring for a time prior to the events of Dec 2010. You'd think upgrades since then might have at least reduced such erroneous behaviour but on the other hand, overly broad and rounded troughs have long been a GFS specialty and I've not seen any real evidence of change there in recent years.


The modelling and actual outcome of Tue-Thu next week really is going be an interesting case study whichever way it goes.


Edit: 12z JMA very interesting as of midnight Sunday;

J84-21.GIF?14-12

Pushing a distinctly separated LP system east as fast as GEM. The 00z was very similar and went on to look like this:

J168-21.GIF?13-0

 

Conclusion: don't trust any of the models, at just 4 days range, even with the broader pattern!

I've never had to say that before - always been regional details at worst at that range.

Edited by Singularity
JMA etc
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
11 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Lol! Well I remember off the top of my head ensemble members 2,3,4 and 5 all showed deep Azores low's with SW winds heading to the UK at around T240.... lets hope I was just seeing things and not seeing the output ahead of everybody else :rofl:

This purb 3 so I don't think so ? At 228 hrs 

IMG_1480.PNG

IMG_1481.PNG

You where seeing things ?

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

I just hope the ECM follows the GEM, what a run by that model - Tuesday onwards its game on for a week or 2 atleast!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
13 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Lol! Well I remember off the top of my head ensemble members 2,3,4 and 5 all showed deep Azores low's with SW winds heading to the UK at around T240.... lets hope I was just seeing things and not seeing the output ahead of everybody else :rofl:

You did not see the 12z suite no one sees it before anyone else. Apart from actual forecasters may see data a tad earlier. 

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

No change as far as I can see, please don't take the OP or Control as gospel, we have lots of options on the table, many of them being COLD

Just to say the Control is ok and with previous winters in mind, you'd take it all day long

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

By 288 all but 2 ensembles have a cold Easterly across the UK, the other two simply have the high further North so we see more low pressure dominance to the South.

288.thumb.png.ac14f228bec27edd14108290b421dba8.png

The OP is quite literally, on it's own.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Looking at the GEFs, there seems to be two routes where we miss out.

1) The high doesn't get far enough north and we end up under a Euro/Scandi ridge, still likely to be chilly with a south easterly flow.

2) The we get the block but the cold air from the east phases with the Atlantic trough too far north and we see low pressure develop to our south west with either a chilly and wet or potentially very mild and wet if tropical maritime air gets pulled up over western Europe from that stalling low.

Examples of both

gens-19-1-240.png   gens-9-1-240.png

Our middle ground between these two solutions is our winning spot where cold air advects west over the UK with low heights developing directly to our south allowing showers or longer spells of snow. The quicker the evolution occurs (GEM being is the best solution) would cause less stress I feel, the longer this episode goes on the more dangerou the scenario gets.

As for those charts above, if the high sits to our east there is always a chance of the pattern re-amplifying to get the cold air back in, the latter solution to be honest may be a game over situation as a west base -NAO tend to turn increasingly into a +NAO over time with westerlies returning. 

Anyway for balance, lets see a winner shall we.

gens-18-1-240.png   gens-18-1-300.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

You did not see the 12z suite no one sees it before anyone else. Apart from actual forecasters may see data a tad earlier. 

Who knows what I was seeing then :rofl:, maybe WZ was having some trouble updating data but I swear it definitely went out to T276 before it suddenly reverted to T132 again.

Maybe I'm going crazy :help::help:

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