Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[karlos1983]

UKMO appears to be having an attempt at scandi height rises at D5 of sorts

looks fairly doomed though to me. 

Edited February 14, 2018 by karlos1983

[inghams85]

The GFS 12z is trending even worse for The initial latitude of the MLB

[The Eagle]

12z GFS looks flatter at 108.

[karlos1983]

I like where the UKMO is heading

[bluearmy]

ICON drops the upper low through s Scandi early on which drives the earlier easterly in conjunction with the WAA to our west 

[frosty ground]

Differences are minute but the main area of focus is the amount of energy that gonna cut south over Norway.

[The Eagle]

UKMO is an improvement but looks a bit 'meh'

[snowice]

UKmo is on the money at 144  better high placement further North! 

Edited February 14, 2018 by snowice

[mountain shadow]

Just now, The Eagle said:

UKMO is an improvement but looks a bit 'meh'

I think we are going to have to resign ourselves to the slow burner and look towards around 25th/26th February before we're in the proper Easterly flow.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

UKMO is an improvement but looks a bit 'meh'

looks to me that 168 could drop that low north of the uk at 144 down the east of our high, opening the door to caa ?

Edited February 14, 2018 by karlos1983

[Lampostwatcher]

ukmo t144 is a fantastic looking chart ?

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

looks to me that 168 could drop that low north of the uk at 144 down the east of our high, opening the door to caa ?

caa?

[lawrenk]

41 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

The MetO have really ramped up the wording on their extended forecast for the period up to the end of Feb "Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant snowfalls focused on southern, central or eastern areas. "

Seems to reflect very much for example what the 06Z GFS is showing for Sunday 25/02

Hands up who lives in that tiny white bit in East Anglia! ?

[bluearmy]

Can’t say I see the excitement in the ukmo day 6. The day 5 had some promise. 

This in relation to a quicker cold advection 

Edited February 14, 2018 by bluearmy

[Seasonal Trim]

Last 5 posts ^^^^^^ 

 

Edit: Sorry to those just above this post. That was aimed at all the UKMO winner/fail posts.

Edited February 14, 2018 by Nizzer

[NorthernRab]

Think GFS will still develop a Greenland / Icelandic high of some description, small trigger low (seen forming over the Azores) to encourage warm air up towards Iceland via high pressure but we shall see. 

 

[NorthernRab]

2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

caa?

Cold air advection, i.e. cold air in places that it normally isn't (in this context).

Edited February 14, 2018 by NorthernRab

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

caa?

Cold Air Advection.

The GFS is.. doing a thing

It'll probably get there in the end but it does like to drag it's heels.

[frosty ground]

Not many places it can go from here,


The low is dropping down the eastern flank being driven on by the Jet.

The high is being pushed west and north

Edited February 14, 2018 by frosty ground

[Neilsouth]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Can’t say I see the excitement in the ukmo day 6. The day 5 has some promise. 

This in relation to a quicker cold advection 

Especially as it's moved from the 18th, to the 20th, and some to the 26th! Not impressed thus far

[Ellozee]

8 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Hands up who lives in that tiny white bit in East Anglia! ?

Not me, but I am in the greenest most sleetiest of East Kent.

[mulzy]

For a faster evolution to cold, try the GEM!

 

[SMU]

The easy summary tonight for cold

NAVGEM / IKON / GEM ( beast ) fast for cold with shortwave trigger

UKMO middle ground at 144 - cold in 168-192

GFs slowest evolution - cold in @216

S

[Met4Cast]

Any chance we can turn the NW servers off again until the ECM? The GFS is painfully slow. It seems the cannon fodder models, ICON, GEM want to bring the cold in earlier.

[The Eagle]

Well, the GFS is quite the proverbial kick in the nuts to 192.