Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[frosty ground]

The Low over Poland is back could push more cold air westerwards.

[karlos1983]

Just now, frosty ground said:

The Low over Poland is back could push more cold air westerwards.

yes, could be a scandi high inbound, looks like our high wants to drift that direction!

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The Low over Poland is back could push more cold air westerwards.

Surely the problem we have here is the energy going around the high squashing any attempt at it floating north, can't see a scandi high from this due to that energy to the north

[frosty ground]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Surely the problem we have here is the energy going around the high squashing any attempt at it floating north, can't see a scandi high from this due to that energy to the north

You need energy to go around the high otherwise its hard to get the cold to advocate westwards.

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Surely the problem we have here is the energy going around the high squashing any attempt at it floating north, can't see a scandi high from this due to that energy to the north

Is it not now Greenland bound via Iceland?

[frosty ground]

That's quite a depression in the Atlantic. signs of it disrupting thou.... 


Its heading North west, which is a good sign.

Edited February 14, 2018 by frosty ground

[Met4Cast]

The problem is with a slower trop response is that we're at the end of winter, we just don't have time to "wait it out", if it was December then it wouldn't be a problem but days are getting longer, the sun is getting warmer. 

Cold spells for low lying England in the South at least during March are often pointless, it's cold, miserable and wet rather than white and any snow that does fall often melts during the day if it's sunny. Maybe I'm being a misery guts this morning but this getting pushed back and back towards March doesn't excite me one bit, I'd rather just get straight into Spring if that becomes the case. 

06z very similar to the 00z which was similar to the 18z. New trend for a sausage high through the UK?

[Weathizard]

Good consistency from the GFS at day 7, high is a bit saggier though.

[frosty ground]

If we can just get the Jet to curve back west rather than North to south, we would get the col in much quicker. 

[weirpig]

Well very similar run this from the GFS compared to the 0z      High advancing to the pole  an easterly starting to bring in colder uppers   by the later part next working week.   wont be bone chilling up to this point  but night time frosts again will be abundant.

[frosty ground]

Just now, weirpig said:

Well very similar run this from the GFS compared to the 0z      High advancing to the pole  an easterly starting to bring in colder uppers   by the later part next working week.   wont be bone chilling up to this point  but night time frosts again will be abundant.

Should be pretty sunny too away from the coasts.

[bluearmy]

Lack of continuity on detail persists

Atlantic much stronger on this run - likely overdone on a rounded feature like that 

[pureasthedriven]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The problem is with a slower trop response is that we're at the end of winter, we just don't have time to "wait it out", if it was December then it wouldn't be a problem but days are getting longer, the sun is getting warmer. 

Cold spells for low lying England in the South at least during March are often pointless, it's cold, miserable and wet rather than white and any snow that does fall often melts during the day if it's sunny. Maybe I'm being a misery guts this morning but this getting pushed back and back towards March doesn't excite me one bit, I'd rather just get straight into Spring if that becomes the case. 

06z very similar to the 00z which was similar to the 18z. New trend for a sausage high through the UK?

Agreed. Unless you get a March 2013, which will do. Unless there’s a notable shift then we are clearly looking at the day 8-10+ range for this to even begin (clearly referenced repeatedly in MetO extended the last week or so). So as you say, when (if) it comes, it needs to be very cold to be cold, if you catch my drift. 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Lack of continuity on detail persists

Atlantic much stronger on this run - likely overdone on a rounded feature like that 

What time frame are you talking about?

The overall pattern is pretty much the same, and surely beyond 5 days that's' all we should be looking at?

[Summer Sun]

Just seen this put up on twitter shows the difference between GFS and ECM for the NAO

Very much a case of GFS v ECM

https://twitter.com/MetmanJames/status/963722508515016707

 

Edited February 14, 2018 by Summer Sun

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Just seen this put up on twitter shows the difference between GFS and ECM for the NAO

Very much a case of GFS v ECM

 

Backs up what GP was saying earlier about a slower solution being more likely. The GFS no doubt playing catch up the ECM as ever.

End of the month now more likely than next week it would appear before proper cold arrives.

Whether the air will be cold enough to override the strengthening sun remains to be seen.

[Met4Cast]

Well christ.

Countrywide blizzards anyone?

[radiohead]

This sort of chart screams major snow potential the likes of which we haven't seen in decades. Shame it's still deep FI but exciting to see the possibilities...

[weirpig]

Will towards the end of the run it  might not be a bone chilling scenario  but with the amount of snowfall any snowman would likely last till mid June.   another run  and still reslly non the wiser.  lets see what the ensembles make of it  

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Just seen this put up on twitter shows the difference between GFS and ECM for the NAO

Very much a case of GFS v ECM

https://twitter.com/MetmanJames/status/963722508515016707

 

Not sure why the EPS Mean only going out to the 23rd on yours, but the extended shows a drop of the mean between -2 and -3 in the 7 days after.

Also, the one I use for GEFS puts that differently as well. Attached, since i can post GFS output.

 

[pureasthedriven]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Well christ.

Countrywide blizzards anyone?

The GFS low pressure ring donut. One day it will nail it - why not this one! ?

[pureasthedriven]

1 minute ago, pureasthedriven said:

The GFS low pressure ring donut. One day it will nail it - why not this one! ?

And even that still has the whiff of cold rain south of the M4 about it! 

[frosty ground]

Well the GFS06z shows the possibility of a lot of snow fall then a lot of rain then even more snow, flooding could be an issue.

Some rather large temperature gradients over the UK too

 

 

[bobbydog]

well if all this winter ends up giving us is around 3 solid days of persistent heavy snow and blizzards,

i suppose it'll have to do....

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

30hpa temperature in the North Pole has warmed even more within the last 24 hours. They might have increase the scale at this rate!

Edited February 14, 2018 by Draig Goch