Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Ice Day]

It's worth the wait when it gets here though.

  

[SMU]

who cares on the timeline- but for low lying England this is the chart of the winter - !!

2009 redux

[nick sussex]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Regardless of what the runs show today we always have to wait till the next one.

True but now we’re taking the scenic route to cold and have to rely on an evolution much further into FI .

As we’ve just seen we didn’t even survive the T144hrs hrs mark before the wheels fell off.

 

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

who cares on the timeline- but for low lying England this is the chart of the winter - !!

2009 redux

Hi Steve do you not think the closer or indeed into March we get the more watered down the cold spell will be. I mean in fairness the sun is already strong and gaining day by day...

Of course the upside to this is maybe some inland convection boosting coastal showers

[karlos1983]

So the gfs decided to throw a little spanner into the works early on, but by hook or by crook it seems intent on bringing us an easterly.

Certainly interested to see the ens shortly and where the Op sits in the hi-res.  It is annoying as Nick S says because we can’t take the ECM as gospel if it carries on from this mornings output. So we will be waiting another day. But that’s probably to be expected given how we’ve got here.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Gets there in the end

 

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

True but now we’re taking the scenic route to cold and have to rely on an evolution much further into FI .

As we’ve just seen we didn’t even survive the T144hrs hrs mark before the wheels fell off.

 

Scenic route or not, Nick, things are looking good!

[NorthernRab]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

True but now we’re taking the scenic route to cold and have to rely on an evolution much further into FI .

As we’ve just seen we didn’t even survive the T144hrs hrs mark before the wheels fell off.

 

Would it not be wiser to wait for the ensembles to see the broader picture? Not sure we should be talking about the wheels coming off due to one run?

[SMU]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Hi Steve do you not think the closer or indeed into March we get the more watered down the cold spell will be. I mean in fairness the sun is already strong and gaining day by day...

Of course the upside to this is maybe some inland convection boosting coastal showers

Hi

( If anyone follows my posts I did say yesterday we could blend the GFS & ECMs evolution to have a slightly later start to the cold - The transitional period is still there & it will be luck if we get in early

So we have transitional phase 144-216 where the high gets to scandi & builds in Situ- If we get the cold under the block then great - If not just chilly at the surface

However - The period post 204> onwards ( 21st ish ) I would say 99% dead cert a Greenland High with deep cold from the East -

As for watered down - The depth of the uppers etc arriving late month are not really watered down with -16c still on tap-

What is stronger is the suns strength & the amount of daylight hours - so net the maxima could creep up *If it was sunny*

So pound for pound if -10-11c brings in 0-1c at the surface early feb the same airmass may well deliver 1-2c at the surface...

Im setting my benchmark at -12c somewhere Thurs - Sun Next week with continued blocking into mid March...

S

[nick sussex]

I’m not saying an easterly won’t happen but at this rate we’ll still be chasing it as we open our Easter Eggs!

It’s irrelevant IMO what the GFS shows in its outer reaches , it could show -20 850s but until these synoptcs  get within the reliable timeframe they’re nothing but more gold at the end of the rainbow.

It looks like we’ve missed the first chance and now will have to wait longer unless the models bring back the trigger shortwave.

Anyway for fear of being renamed the poster who killed Santa that’s my last rant until the ECM comes out!

[Duane S.]

I think we need to put the 00z ECM into perspective here. That was just about the best chart run we could possibly have had, certainly for so early on. Very progressive (in terms of bringing in the PC air). As lovely as it is/was, we may need to wait a little longer but all is good, all charts are currently leading to Rome. These are fab synoptics, we will have to consider ourselves incredibly unlucky if we don't end up with a decent cold spell out of the this.

It may well be that the GFS and Met OPs have picked up a new signal to run the jet across as they did, it doesn't make that signal right though. It will be as likely gone by tomorrow as still there. Remember, new data getting added every run. New data that is being created by the emerging SSW itself as it starts to make its presence felt. New actual data that may or may not've been forecast the day before.

IMO, only at the weekend will we truly start to see where we are probably heading mid next week.

[Rollo]

I have come to the opinion that the computers just have not got a handle on the current SSW as regards to the path to cold so it is still exploring all the avenues before finally deciding the true way, in the meantime it is giving us on hell of a journey.

[Lampostwatcher]

1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

I think we need to put the 00z ECM into perspective here. That was just about the best chart run we could possibly have had, certainly for so early on. Very progressive (in terms of bringing in the PC air). As lovely as it is/was, we may need to wait a little longer but all is good, all charts are currently leading to Rome. These are fab synoptics, we will have to consider ourselves incredibly unlucky if we don't end up with a decent cold spell out of the this.

It may well be that the GFS and Met OPs have picked up a new signal to run the jet across as they did, it doesn't make that signal right though. It will be as likely gone by tomorrow as still there. Remember, new data getting added every run. New data that is being created by the emerging SSW itself as it starts to make its presence felt. New actual data that may or may not've been forecast the day before.

IMO, only at the weekend will we truly start to see where we are probably heading mid next week.

didn't we all think that last weekend lol

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

I think we need to put the 00z ECM into perspective here. That was just about the best chart run we could possibly have had, certainly for so early on. Very progressive (in terms of bringing in the PC air). As lovely as it is/was, we may need to wait a little longer but all is good, all charts are currently leading to Rome. These are fab synoptics, we will have to consider ourselves incredibly unlucky if we don't end up with a decent cold spell out of the this.

It may well be that the GFS and Met OPs have picked up a new signal to run the jet across as they did, it doesn't make that signal right though. It will be as likely gone by tomorrow as still there. Remember, new data getting added every run. New data that is being created by the emerging SSW itself as it starts to make its presence felt. New actual data that may or may not've been forecast the day before.

IMO, only at the weekend will we truly start to see where we are probably heading mid next week.

Yes, worth remembering the weather (in terms of the data input fed in) makes the models, the models don't make the weather.

[E17boy]

Hi good afternoon good  people I hope everyone is having a great afternoon. I have been looking at the comments on here this afternoon and there have been some great posts. 

I can see that we are just on the cusp of getting our dreams come true could we be finally seeing something on the horizon could our long wait for this easterly be finally rewarded. My heart is crying out for a yes to all this but we have still some time to go I still think nothing is set in stone and there will still be twists and turns, some heart mending and some heartbreaking. I think we still need to be cautious although sometimes excitement can over run that. 

I really hope this easterly finally arrives I know I have waiting in a long que for this.

keep up the excellent posts 

let's hope ECM will finally get a place in our hearts tonight. 

Wishing you all a lovely evening

All the best regards ????

[Mucka]

When ensembles are showing from this to this at just 144 it's time to take a step back and shrug.

[Daniel*]

Out to T+156 well GFS op is certainly not without support. However, there is a decent cluster which is much more progressive in bringing easterlies. 

[Frosty.]

I'm just glad the Gfs 12z got there and delivered our Easterly snow fix and blocked pattern, it's a very exciting period coming up!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

[Ice Day]

The ensemble mean is still looking OK in the short term with the Op and Control both on the high side at the end of the high res part of the run

[Mucka]

@frosty "...it's a very exciting period coming up!"

That is certainly one way to describe the model tribulations Frosty. 

[The PIT]

Pretty naff GFS although it does bring an early taste of spring. As ever any cold remains unmoved way out in lala land. Sadly the high sits around in the wrong place and there's no guarantee it will sit in the right place. So don't get too carried away folks. Hopefully the ECM will deliver something better.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

@frosty "...it's a very exciting period coming up!"

That is certainly one way to describe the model tribulations Frosty. 

It could also be nerve shredding but looking at the models in the last few days shows potentially the best of winter still to come..fingers crossed!

[tight isobar]

12z  london.ens well worth a look.

Edited February 13, 2018 by tight isobar

[Daniel*]

T240 mean v OP clearly more support is to bring in easterlies quicker..

[Mucka]

GFS Op went off on one from the 20th, though the ensembles are a bit more of a mixed bag than the 06z set.