SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[TSNWK]

Seen a few rumbles about sun strength... London at 51n is a whole 10deg north of Chicago, Toronto, the sun height start of March on London is the same as it would in early January for Chicago and Toronto.. and there is no issue with sun melt there in January.. All about temps and dew points.... 

bring it on!

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

That line that runs pretty vertically down from London to Brighton - I'm about 3miles west of it!!!!! Noooooo!!!! Lets hope the blob extends westwards and turns orange!!!!x

Almost certain it will as we get closer to the time. 

Also note the cold temps overnight are good to get the ground temp as low as possible.

[Essex Chelle]

Anyone else feel like they are banging their head against a brick wall when trying to warn People? I' just getting laughed coz their phones don' show snow all week just a flurry Monday!! 

[Snow Queen one]

I do.  They look at me as if I am mad lol

[Memphis snow]

2 minutes ago, Essex Chelle said:

Anyone else feel like they are banging their head against a brick wall when trying to warn People? I' just getting laughed coz their phones don' show snow all week just a flurry Monday!! 

I know people just don’t get those symbols on the weather apps are next to useless!!!

[Laurence Hill]

Wonder where Steve is?  Another visit to the souk?

[lassie23]

how is everything this morning, any over night wobbles and what about the weather

[Uxbridge90]

Just outside the warning zone, hopefully that means we'll avoid the worst of the disruption! 

[bobbydog]

i see the first warnings have appeared.

yellow snow...

warning - dont eat it....

[Thinon]

Just now, Uxbridge90 said:

Just outside the warning zone, hopefully that means we'll avoid the worst of the disruption! 

The warning zones always begin quite conservatively to avoid causing too much potentially unnecessary panic. Once the details firm up, I'm sure the zone will be extended to cover most of the UK, with amber warnings across the SE

[Nick F]

Looks like we are getting into possible Snow Streamer territory from early Tuesday morning

GFS

ECM

 

[Hodgheg]

I don’t think anyone quite realised how bad this could be. The reaction of my work colleagues was “yea but it never happens does it” 

this isn’t helped by the management company that looks after the grounds warning “The MET Office warning of ice condition” every time it’s been frosty.

MET office,I know ?  

[Sidsnake]

32 minutes ago, Essex Chelle said:

Anyone else feel like they are banging their head against a brick wall when trying to warn People? I' just getting laughed coz their phones don' show snow all week just a flurry Monday!! 

Absolutely absolutely.  My husband will have none of it and due to his health he is part of the population that really should be taking notice of the weather.  Even without snow there is going to be unusually severe cold next week which impacts on the population.  I've just come out of our local shop.  Stacked right out with bread.  I'm carrying on regardless and making preparations for next week.  

[chionomaniac]

15 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Looks like we are getting into possible Snow Streamer territory from early Tuesday morning

GFS

ECM

 

YEp I noticed that Nick. Seems to picked up in the last 24hrs - so hopefully will increase further over the weekend.

[snowblind]

23 minutes ago, Thinon said:

The warning zones always begin quite conservatively to avoid causing too much potentially unnecessary panic. Once the details firm up, I'm sure the zone will be extended to cover most of the UK, with amber warnings across the SE

The amounts seem quite conservative as well. 5 to 10cms in the worst affected areas 0 to 2 elsewhere.

[kold weather]

Yep the streamer getting picked up. Even more impressive given we are still some way away and this will only amplify. The ECM should do better due to higher resolution.

[Nick F]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

YEp I noticed that Nick. Seems to picked up in the last 24hrs - so hopefully will increase further over the weekend.

Once we get closer in range, high res  models should start to expand and up the forecast precip rates as they get new data. 

[Snowman31]

I thought that the showers were supposed to spread much further Inland next week. Why is there no signs of that on the models or the meto warnings?

[craigore]

Just not seeing the ppn data to suggest we here in the S.E will be seeing the totals that other eastern areas of the U.K may get.. hopefully that will change nearer the time..

[Weathizard]

Just inside the warning band ? I'll take it, not convinced myself though unless we get some troughs in the flow. The flow doesn't really look suited for us this far west in the region

[Ellozee]

5 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

I thought that the showers were supposed to spread much further Inland next week. Why is there no signs of that on the models or the meto warnings?

Because this side of the weekend (still 4/5 days out) it's usually much harder to forecast exact PPN locations and rates. The charts will give a general idea up until 48h away, then firm up.

Edited February 23, 2018 by Ellozee

[JennyJane1]

15 minutes ago, Sidsnake said:

Absolutely absolutely.  My husband will have none of it and due to his health he is part of the population that really should be taking notice of the weather.  Even without snow there is going to be unusually severe cold next week which impacts on the population.  I've just come out of our local shop.  Stacked right out with bread.  I'm carrying on regardless and making preparations for next week.  

What on earth do you do with all that bread in the snow?

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, craigore said:

Just not seeing the ppn data to suggest we here in the S.E will be seeing the totals that other eastern areas of the U.K may get.. hopefully that will change nearer the time..

Models are sensing there is instability out there and are going to likely upgrade precip across our region over the next few days, especially in the usual spots.

Also remember in Feb 09 the models didn't really pick up the thames streamer until 36hrs out. The fact the models are sniffing this out twice as far out shows how conducive this set-up actually is predicted to be.

[SLEETY]

14 minutes ago, snowblind said:

The amounts seem quite conservative as well. 5 to 10cms in the worst affected areas 0 to 2 elsewhere.

But thats only up to Tuesday,,and they say lots of uncertainty regarding the timing and AMOUNT, of snow,just try and be a bit patient lol,and wait till the met office can firm up on the details nearer the time frame

most of the SE will get snow next week that certain.

[Sidsnake]

12 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

What on earth do you do with all that bread in the snow?

I've bought some cheap bread for the sheep.  A personal favourite for Keith my Ram is Hovis Finger Rolls.