SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[snowray]

Incredible run from UKMO, -16c uppers clipping EA and Kent at T144, strong easterly, lots of snow! I can barely type looking at these charts!

[snowray]

In fact I'm thinking, I'll wake up soon and will have missed all the usual down grades that we get at D5/6!

 

BUT ONLY UPGRADES IT SEEMS!

 

Sorry guys if you didn't want the mauvey bits, cos this time next week max temps might barely get up to -4c, can you imagine that?!  Just saw that on ITV, not bothering with the the BBC!

Edited February 22, 2018 by snowray

[JennyJane1]

5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Incredible run from UKMO, -16c uppers clipping EA and Kent at T144, strong easterly, lots of snow! I can barely type looking at these charts!

Would this disrupt transport?

[Neilsouth]

20 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Why are you talking about  Kent has done best for snow this winter...

London has been a snow go zone for five years. I haven’t had more than a dusting in 5 years! 

Kent is a HUGE area!

I haven't seen any snow since 2013! That's like saying Scotland has done the best this winter, because it snowed in Aberdeen :/

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

Seeing as this is a nice friendly thread and i dnt dare ask in the model thread, can you explain what the chart actually shows and how it shows prolonged snow all day? is it something to do with the bars and numbers?

The UKMO 144 below

Shows pressure & heights / Thickness which we guage how unstable the air is-

Basically the differential between the sea temp ( 6-7 ) & the upper air temp @850 HPA of about -16c creates uplift & shower cloud - Which then dumps everyhing on the nearest land -

The showers will form 'trains' moving from east to west - so snow amounts wont be uniform across the piste - but because UKMO 96/120/144 have all got slightly different angles then everyone should get hit - It has to be said though the focus on UKMO raw is kent / SE essex / London / Suffolk & across into the SW parts / Sussex etc-

It will be like someone has just turned on the snow machine-

for those interested UKMO 850s from 72

72 -5c ( sunday lunch )

96 -12c  surface temp ~ 0 to -1c

120 -14c surface temp ~ -1 to -3c

144 -16c  !! surface temp ~ -2c to -5c

peak looks to be 144 although we should squeeze another 2 days after that

post that if you want -15c we need slack winds...

Edited February 22, 2018 by Steve Murr

[JennyJane1]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

The UKMO 144 below

 

Thanks, at some time i will really try to understand these charts, people post them and i'm just like, ooh pretty colours, haven't got a clue what it actually signifies.

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

Would this disrupt transport?

Chaos. Looks worse than 2009 it’s over days too...

[Weathizard]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The UKMO 144 below

Shows pressure & heights / Thickness which we guage how unstable the air is-

Basically the differential between the sea temp ( 6-7 ) & the upper air temp @850 HPA of about -16c creates uplift & shower cloud - Which then dumps everyhing on the nearest land -

The showers will form 'trains' moving from east to west - so snow amounts wont be uniform across the piste - but because UKMO 96/120/144 have all got slightly different angles then everyone should get hit - It has to be said though the focus on UKMO raw is kent / SE essex / London / Suffolk & across into the SW parts / Sussex etc-

It will be like someone has just turned on the snow machine-

for those interested UKMO 850s from 72

72 -5c ( sunday lunch )

96 -12c  surface temp ~ 0 to -1c

120 -14c surface temp ~ -1 to -3c

144 -16c  !! surface temp ~ -2c to -5c

peak looks to be 144 although we should squeeze another 2 days after that

post that if you want -15c we need slack winds...

I'm Surprised you put Sussex in that Steve I was thinking the opposite! Maybe more inland parts of Sussex? Unless the wind veers ESE shower wise from a directly easterly we quite often struggle down here.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Weathizard

[saint]

Can someone pass on a message to the showers to not miss South Hertfordshire please? 

[Dazaaa07]

Can any tell me how likely Peterborough is for snow? Have a quid bet with the wife that she will have a snow day and school will be closed ?

[Memphis snow]

Mad thread is going to self combust in a minute!!!

[Tom Jarvis]

@Steve Murr would that gfs h210 chart cause freezing rain. Surprised that might not be one of the risks from this cold spell

[SMU]

7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I'm Surprised you put Sussex in that Steve I was thinking the opposite! Maybe more inland parts of Sussex? Unless the wind veers ESE shower wise from a directly easterly we quite often struggle down here.

I edited it to include everyone as were not 100% sure yet

Sadly UKMO pipped into second tonight by the GEM

-19c just off the coast-

[SMU]

Just now, Tom Jarvis said:

@Steve Murr would that gfs h210 chart cause freezing rain. Surprised that might not be one of the risks from this cold spell

probably but the GFS solution is a long way from the euro ATM which is good -

[Staffordshire]

Am i best heading towards the SE (Kent downs) or maybe somewhere else on the east coast? Upwards towards the peaks maybe? I need to make my decision by tomorrow evening hopefully and don't really know the topography/potential sweet spots in the SE.

[Dbarb]

I know places like Kent, London and areas inland from there will do well but what about places further north in East Anglia as I think they will miss most of the snow due to the wind direction. I live in mid essex and the showers tend to always go through Kent or hit the Norfolk coast and fizzle out as they head towards me. This is because unless the wind is directly east or south east the showers dont come here that often. 

[Southender]

19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The UKMO 144 below

Shows pressure & heights / Thickness which we guage how unstable the air is-

Basically the differential between the sea temp ( 6-7 ) & the upper air temp @850 HPA of about -16c creates uplift & shower cloud - Which then dumps everyhing on the nearest land -

The showers will form 'trains' moving from east to west - so snow amounts wont be uniform across the piste - but because UKMO 96/120/144 have all got slightly different angles then everyone should get hit - It has to be said though the focus on UKMO raw is kent / SE essex / London / Suffolk & across into the SW parts / Sussex etc-

It will be like someone has just turned on the snow machine-

for those interested UKMO 850s from 72

72 -5c ( sunday lunch )

96 -12c  surface temp ~ 0 to -1c

120 -14c surface temp ~ -1 to -3c

144 -16c  !! surface temp ~ -2c to -5c

peak looks to be 144 although we should squeeze another 2 days after that

post that if you want -15c we need slack winds...

March record low daytime max under threat Wed/Thur Steve?

[Gowon]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I edited it to include everyone as were not 100% sure yet

Sadly UKMO pipped into second tonight by the GEM

-19c just off the coast-

The GEM is superb in terms of longevity also

[snowray]

15 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

Would this disrupt transport?

One word...Yes, big time because people have not seen this sort of thing in years and think its going to be just another inch of slush and thats it, gosh they are going to be very wrong!

I just did a mega mega shop this morning, stocked up on just about everything including the last of the Bounty bars at Morrisons. Sorry Lassie, but I'm sure there are still some around over your way to add to your stock pile.

Oh, and It seems to me that people are panic buying already, never seen it so busy, I mentioned snow while queuing at the check out and they all knew about it for next week. 

Going Marks and Spencer Saturday for another top up hopefully they will still have stuff on their shelves.

 

So get you skates on, word is getting around fast!!

 

[yamkin]

 

 

[JennyJane1]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

One word...Yes, big time because people have not seen this sort of thing in years and think its going to be just another inch of slush and thats it, gosh they are going to be very wrong!

 

So get you skates on, word is getting around fast!!

 

Thanks, I am going to supermarket tomorrow afternoon but as i'm getting stuff most dont want (fish for my bird, and stuff like that, and not bread and milk) i dont think i'll have a problem.i was wondering whether to leave it till monday but may not be able to get out if snow starts by then.

[Hodgheg]

I’m actually getting worried about travelling north on Thursday morning. Would anyone with experience of past snow events know how bad the East Coast Main Line gets affected? 

[Tom Jarvis]

1 minute ago, JennyJane1 said:

Thanks, I am going to supermarket tomorrow afternoon but as i'm getting stuff most dont want (fish for my bird, and stuff like that, and not bread and milk) i dont think i'll have a problem.i was wondering whether to leave it till monday but may not be able to get out if snow starts by then.

What bird have you got?? 

[Dorset_mist]

Good afternoon SE snow hunters! My company pay for access to Met Office data (stocks and shares and all that jazz). We have all been placed on RED disaster recovery status alert, avoiding all none essential travel. The Beast is coming...

[saint]

Just now, John Hodgson said:

I’m actually getting worried about travelling north on Thursday morning. Would anyone with experience of past snow events know how bad the East Coast Main Line gets affected? 

The ECML can be a pain in any severe weather as the overhead lines aren't great to dealing with it. However, it's still too far out to know how it'll cope and on a given day it could be okay! I would just look out for METO forecasts and info from the train companies.