SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[snowrye]

25 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

thank you,   though that was the case,  can you tell me maybe how thay seem to be able to tell some snow will arrive like Thursday?  are their certain models that actually show this ??? whn you look at a model how can you tell the difference between the different precipitations?? sorry for all the questions I'm just trying to learn a little bit.

They can only go on what the models show them,nothing is set in stone regarding snow amounts,more so the further away you look,they'll be plenty of instability,troughs etc,that will pop up out of nowhere,very cold air arriving,coming across the north sea,which will hopefully produce some beefy snow showers,streamers etc,there's knowledgeable people in here,when they post,take note,watch the radar,strap yourself in,I have a feeling it will be a brill ride

[danm]

Nowhere is guaranteed snow, there can always be places that miss out, especially in a showery set up. 

However, I think you'd have to be very unlucky to miss out on snow in our region with the forecasted set up. 

[snowrye]

2 minutes ago, Joanne Swann said:

Hi all. not been on here for a while now, nice to see some faces, um new account so got to start from zero posts grr again, looking forward to all of the fun ,roller coaster rides and of course the pub runs lol 

Welcome back to the madhouse

[Joanne Swann]

2 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Welcome back to the madhouse

thank you, its good to be back, ive missed this place 

[Britneyfan]

Met office website is showing snow in our region from Sunday evening, right up until weds! Bbc weather is showing nothing! My goodness the difference is shocking! And met office is more trusted as they set up the weather warnings! I am expecting a weather warning from them by Saturday for Monday’s snow! 

[snowrye]

It is addictive,and its full of great people

[Captain Shortwave]

At this moment I think Monday and Tuesday look pretty good, a straight easterly which is becoming increasingly cold and unstable so showers should develop widely and push in land, especially later on Monday. A Thames streamer looks more than possible. The surface flow will determine where gets the most snow of course. The GFS is a bit of pain by veering the winds more south easterly but other models tend to keep the flow from the east or even north east which would be better for us.

We should start to see the first few flurries late on Sunday.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[Matty88]

I'm following the charts and forums with an extremely keen eye and note that the charts (particularly GFS) don't actually indicate any particularly potent snowfalls for our part of the world - right up until a week Saturday, just some light accumulations (2-3cm). 

It seems a lot on this forum and in particularly this thread are thinking the North Sea will provide us with banks of 'lake effect' snow - going against what the charts actually show us. I don't know about anyone else - I wish for this as much as anyone, and I hope the charts are wrong,  but to pin all our hopes on the North Sea to churn out masses of lake effect snow rather than what the charts actually predict would be a bit hopeful to say the least. I'm sure the charts have yet to calculate certain disturbances and instability etc - but we have been here many times before (including 2010/2013) and the North Sea simply hasn't delivered masses of shower activity - there were many disappointed. 

We'll have a much better idea of events on Monday next week... patience is key here. I can already see the daily mail articles of '10ft Siberian blizzard to hit London'..... lets not go there!!!!!! 

Edited February 22, 2018 by Matty88

[steveinsussex]

11 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Met office website is showing snow in our region from Sunday evening, right up until weds! Bbc weather is showing nothing! My goodness the difference is shocking! And met office is more trusted as they set up the weather warnings! I am expecting a weather warning from them by Saturday for Monday’s snow! 

It’s not shocking at all, stop being dramatic. It’s impossible to forecast snow at this time for next week with any accuracy. 

 

The BBC have a responsibility to be as accurate as possible and will urge of the side of caution until they can be sure

Edited February 22, 2018 by steveinsussex

[beng]

Speaking for my own area - Reigate Surrey, we need an ENE wind - from experience typically we could then expect 4-6 inches per day (maybe more on the downs). SE wind won't deliver convective snow here (hopefully GFS is wrong as it edges the wind SE fairly quickly) - If the wind veers more NE, then it becomes a bit hit and miss here - less convective showers, but troughs can swing in and drop a few inches. Of course in 2009, the ENE wind flow delivered a super streamer with some places North and West of here getting > 1 foot in a single night - so it'll be very much a now-cast in the end.

 

 

 

[tcc]

At this time there is no point asking when will it snow, as literally no one knows for sure!

All we can do at this stage is be patient, I know that's difficult (this week seems to be dragging big time!) but we won't know until literally 12, maybe 24 hours before any snow can be forecast with confidence.

Snow wise best bet is to wait till Sunday to see what is being forecast for Monday, then see what happens on Monday to see what's going to be happen on Tuesday and so forth.

 

 

 

[Matty88]

13 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Met office website is showing snow in our region from Sunday evening, right up until weds! Bbc weather is showing nothing! My goodness the difference is shocking! And met office is more trusted as they set up the weather warnings! I am expecting a weather warning from them by Saturday for Monday’s snow! 

Rule number one: Don't take out of context what the meto have said, they have said any snowfall will be extremely marginal. It is not a dead cert at all. As it stands there is no hard information showing any potent snowfalls for our region. The charts will change of course - but the most they can muster as of today is some patchy 2-3cm coverings in Norfolk/Suffolk and Essex. There you go.... 

[beng]

6 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

I'm following the charts and forums with an extremely keen eye and note that the charts (particularly GFS) don't actually indicate any particularly potent snowfalls for our part of the world - right up until a week Saturday, just some light accumulations (2-3cm). 

It seems a lot on this forum and in particularly this thread are thinking the North Sea will provide us with banks of 'lake effect' snow - going against what the charts actually show us. I don't know about anyone else - I wish for this as much as anyone, and I hope the charts are wrong,  but to pin all our hopes on the North Sea to churn out masses of lake effect snow rather than what the charts actually predict would be a bit hopeful to say the least. I'm sure the charts have yet to calculate certain disturbances and instability etc - but we have been here many times before (including 2010/2013) and the North Sea simply hasn't delivered masses of shower activity - there were many disappointed. 

We'll have a much better idea of events on Monday next week... patience is key here. I can already see the daily mail articles of '10ft Siberian blizzard to hit London'..... lets not go there!!!!!! 

It really depends on your location and the wind direction. Down here Nov/Dec 2010 delivered close on a foot with an ENE wind (similar in 91 and 87 - more on the downs). You probably need the wind more NE I would imagine.  Right now, it's still too early to say what the exact wind direction will be and who will get the most snow, although we can say places like Kent are obviously favoured since they have more margin for error with the wind direction.

Edited February 22, 2018 by beng

[Meggy]

1 hour ago, moogyboobles said:

 

That he is a weatherman and so is Michael Fish.

That's it now, stuck in my head for the rest of the day.

And so is Wincy Willis! Funny how these tunes go round and round in your head!

[Flaked Queen]

7 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

I'm following the charts and forums with an extremely keen eye and note that the charts (particularly GFS) don't actually indicate any particularly potent snowfalls for our part of the world - right up until a week Saturday, just some light accumulations (2-3cm). 

It seems a lot on this forum and in particularly this thread are thinking the North Sea will provide us with banks of 'lake effect' snow - going against what the charts actually show us. I don't know about anyone else - I wish for this as much as anyone, and I hope the charts are wrong,  but to pin all our hopes on the North Sea to churn out masses of lake effect snow rather than what the charts actually predict would be a bit hopeful to say the least. I'm sure the charts have yet to calculate certain disturbances and instability etc - but we have been here many times before (including 2010/2013) and the North Sea simply hasn't delivered masses of shower activity - there were many disappointed. 

We'll have a much better idea of events on Monday next week... patience is key here. I can already see the daily mail articles of '10ft Siberian blizzard to hit London'..... lets not go there!!!!!! 

Are you going to play nice this time and just agree we are getting a huge dumping of snow ? ( even if we are not ) can we play pretend like the papers and APPS ... all joking aside I think we all need to just go with the flow - 1st cold... tick ... 2nd stand by your lampposts ... tick ....3rd DONT LICK THE LAMPOST WHEN ITS COLD 

[throwoff]

56 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

thank you,   though that was the case,  can you tell me maybe how thay seem to be able to tell some snow will arrive like Thursday?  are their certain models that actually show this ??? whn you look at a model how can you tell the difference between the different precipitations?? sorry for all the questions I'm just trying to learn a little bit.

They can see the general 'gist' of how it is going, the cold will be present which means snow is only a case of moisture coming in.

Now the pattern should mean we see some, that doesn't mean they can tell how much, when or where it will be. 

[Dazaaa07]

this is from my local weather guy ( he is very good ) I am in Peterborough be nice to get a dumping but thinking we might miss out on alot

Continued media comment with regard to an impending cold spell soon to affect the UK. Some very fanciful low temperatures being headlined by the usual suspects and alluding to a lot of snowfall. The facts are that cold air does look likely to advect across the UK from the East over the weekend and into next week. The theme for this forecast area is cold days, with temperatures struggling to peak above 2°C or 3°C through Sunday, and risk of some snow showers affecting the forecast area through Monday and perhaps Tuesday, although at this time no major accumulation is expected on these days. Temperatures potentially on reaching 1°C or 2°C. Overnight temperatures perhaps down to -3°C or -4°C, but these will be dependent on amounts of cloud cover overnight. A signal for some heavier, more widespread sleet/snow into Wednesday, but as this is 6 days away, any attempt at any real detail is absolute folly. So yes a cold spell is very likely, but treat some of the extremes being published in the media with caution.

[onepingonly]

MetO now saying max -1 min -7 up in the downs where I am. Nothing about snow but all to play for.

[Matty88]

4 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Are you going to play nice this time and just agree we are getting a huge dumping of snow ? ( even if we are not ) can we play pretend like the papers and APPS ... all joking aside I think we all need to just go with the flow - 1st cold... tick ... 2nd stand by your lampposts ... tick ....3rd DONT LICK THE LAMPOST WHEN ITS COLD 

I always try to play nice  exciting times. Ahh - memories of looking in the local papers forecast to see a dark cloud and snowflake - then sitting by the window at night watching the lamp post!!! Those were the days. Without any computer or charts of course 

[beng]

1 minute ago, Matty88 said:

I always try to play nice  exciting times. Ahh - memories of looking in the local papers forecast to see a dark cloud and snowflake - then sitting by the window at night watching the lamp post!!! Those were the days. Without any computer or charts of course 

Bring back the magnetic weather charts and snow symbols that used to go over the top of the sunshine ones 

[snow raven]

30 minutes ago, Joanne Swann said:

thank you, its good to be back, ive missed this place 

My maiden name was Swann with 2 'n's at the end - nice to see another Swann on here!

[Flaked Queen]

Just now, Matty88 said:

I always try to play nice  exciting times. Ahh - memories of looking in the local papers forecast to see a dark cloud and snowflake - then sitting by the window at night watching the lamp post!!! Those were the days. Without any computer or charts of course 

Wasn’t as stressful lol ..I’m lucky enough to have a bright lamp post right outside my window so will use that for now casting as that is what it’s going to be 

[Southender]

I really wouldn’t concern yourselves with what apps are showing right now. I mean this update for my area is great. Light snow/showers from Monday almost continuously to Wednesday and temps around zero. Am I getting drawn in by it, hell no. It changes all the time and is very innacurate on the whole, especially in setups like this. Get the cold in, then watch the radar!

[tight isobar]

17 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

I'm following the charts and forums with an extremely keen eye and note that the charts (particularly GFS) don't actually indicate any particularly potent snowfalls for our part of the world - right up until a week Saturday, just some light accumulations (2-3cm). 

It seems a lot on this forum and in particularly this thread are thinking the North Sea will provide us with banks of 'lake effect' snow - going against what the charts actually show us. I don't know about anyone else - I wish for this as much as anyone, and I hope the charts are wrong,  but to pin all our hopes on the North Sea to churn out masses of lake effect snow rather than what the charts actually predict would be a bit hopeful to say the least. I'm sure the charts have yet to calculate certain disturbances and instability etc - but we have been here many times before (including 2010/2013) and the North Sea simply hasn't delivered masses of shower activity - there were many disappointed. 

We'll have a much better idea of events on Monday next week... patience is key here. I can already see the daily mail articles of '10ft Siberian blizzard to hit London'..... lets not go there!!!!!! 

A very bizzare 'outlandish' post @Matty88..

There is nil marginality...and the convective structure is looking prime..

Upper values-and any lake effect precip will be all snow...and likely the powder variety!!

Pin-pointing is reserved for now.

But impactual convection (snow) gaining momentum...and fast!!

[Matty88]

37 minutes ago, Joanne Swann said:

Hi all. not been on here for a while now, nice to see some faces, um new account so got to start from zero posts grr again, looking forward to all of the fun ,roller coaster rides and of course the pub runs lol 

You me both! It's good to be back   I had to start fresh too, so annoying. Couldn't even remember my old username!!!