SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Flaked Queen]

Just now, Mokidugway said:

Anyhoo back to the land  way oop north of blacktop knuckle draggers and mouth breathers 

Trespassing moki !!! Offffff our land 

[Crystal Memories]

2 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Show me a chart as of the latest 12z run that indicates widespread significant snow for all in Southern and Eastern areas? Copy and paste it in your reply and show us all. 

The Met will not change there forecast because of one-run because they are more experienced than that 

 

[Matty88]

1 minute ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Are you on the wind up ? Plz don’t spoil our fun 

Not at all I'm just writing what I have seen as of the latest chart trend for precipitation next week. As you all seem obsessed with the meto saying 'significant snow next week' I'm just wondering if any of you can show us all a precipitation chart trend that indicates a major snow event for us? The answer is there isn't one at this stage. I'm not saying there won't be one - the possibility is there, but we need to exercise caution. There's as much chance for us getting a mostly dry, sunny, cold icy week next week (with the odd sprinkling) as there is a significant snow event. 

[KDME]

1 minute ago, Matty88 said:

Not at all I'm just writing what I have seen as of the latest chart trend for precipitation next week. As you all seem obsessed with the meto saying 'significant snow next week' I'm just wondering if any of you can show us all a precipitation chart trend that indicates a major snow event for us? The answer is there isn't one at this stage. I'm not saying there won't be one - the possibility is there, but we need to exercise caution. There's as much chance for us getting a mostly dry, sunny, cold icy week next week (with the odd sprinkling) as there is a significant snow event. 

Think you have made your point - Matty88 vs UK Met Office
Only time will tell who has the better insight.

[Matty88]

2 minutes ago, Crystal Memories said:

The Met will not change there forecast because of one-run because they are more experienced than that 

 

You will know as well as I do that the meto has made some epic c*** up's over years gone by, please do not religiously believe everything they say. The cold spell starts Sunday/Monday - lets get excited nearer the time should a widespread snow event become imminent... which as of today's indications it isn't. 

[Flaked Queen]

2 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Not at all I'm just writing what I have seen as of the latest chart trend for precipitation next week. As you all seem obsessed with the meto saying 'significant snow next week' I'm just wondering if any of you can show us all a precipitation chart trend that indicates a major snow event for us? The answer is there isn't one at this stage. I'm not saying there won't be one - the possibility is there, but we need to exercise caution. There's as much chance for us getting a mostly dry, sunny, cold icy week next week (with the odd sprinkling) as there is a significant snow event. 

Ok sorry , salt , shovels , snow socks , willy warmers ... all shoved in back of wardrobe now ! Sun cream anyone ? 

Honestly matty the charts have all been great ... a wobble and it’s all off ?? 

[E17boy]

Evening good peeps ?

Hope everyone is ok and well just seen the last few posts and there seems to be some kind of seriousness in the posts. I thought we all in here were gentle kind souls. 

Look the current situation stands like this cold is coming yes we know that but nothing is nailed in terms of snow just yet. We have still got 3 days to get through before we reach Sunday and things could change for the better or worse none of us know that. 

One thing is for sure though is that we are all on this journey together and we all want our final destination. Bothering others or saying bad things is not going to make this train go faster. Let's all relax and keep our fingers crossed I am sure there is someone listening to what our hearts are crying out for  we will get there but patience. We are all in this together lets make the journey fun for all. 

Wishing you all a great evening

regards ????

[throwoff]

I think things are about to get fun.

A couple of weeks back we had a lot of happy members waking up to snow on what was at best a marginal event, now we have something much more exciting to look forward too!

[E17boy]

8 hours ago, E17boy said:

Looks like the conditions are going to be right. 

Lets get the game going 

LATE WiNTER FREEZE CHAMPIONSHIP CUP

Starts this Sunday

ATLANTIC WARMERS v EASTERLY UNITED

Game being held after many years at the Southeast Model Output Snowball Ground

kickoff subject to the arrival of Mr Snowflake ❄️ host of the game

We are all ready now so here it goes

ITS COMMING ........ITS COMMING.............SNOWBALL iIS COMMING HOME.........

TIckets available at the Met OFfice booking centre

see you all there ????

❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️

Just to add on to my post this morning which I forgot this match is subject to change to being moved forward or postponed depending on the right playing conditions .

just to lighten the mood 

[Paul]

Can we keep it friendly please. Fwiw, I think both sets of views are right here. There is no guarantee of snow in a particular location, so anyone thinking there's a 100% chance of getting a dumping has a reasonable chance of being disappointed. There is, however a risk of some decent snow amounts in places - eg most likely through showers (so by their nature will hit somewhere and miss somewhere else). Anyone wanting a chart to 'prove' it will struggle, since you're going to need to wait for the mesoscale hires models to come in to play at around 48 or so hours out for that sort of thing to be resolved. 

For those wanting the meto's word for it, this is from their latest press release:

Quote

There is potential for some disruptive snowfall next week, although the likelihood of heavy snow in any given location is very difficult to gauge; some places could see some significant amounts of snow, while nearby locations may receive very little. At this stage, we consider the region’s most likely to have disruptive snowfall are parts of east and southeast England. Here, disruption to travel is possible for the start of the working week.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/cold-conditions-end-of-february

And for charts, the ensembles give a broad brush kinda guide, in terms of whether there's a chance of precip or not - and as you can see, plenty think there is, but again - detail and specifics are impossible at this point - all they suggest is that the ingredients are more likely than not to be in place for showers:

[Southender]

Jesus H the MAD thread is the worst I have seen it for ages. So many triggered members. Avoid ?

[snowblind]

1 hour ago, Weather_Novice said:

I have no recollection of the frequently cold and snow of March 2013 ... I have no recollection!  Did we get any snow in Essex?  I remember Dec 2010 and no particularly cold, snowy period since! 

It was cold, yes, but not much snow here. 5cms on grass and cars on the 23rd I think, but never settled on pavement or roads and melted as soon as it stopped snowing.

[Flaked Queen]

8 minutes ago, Paul said:

Can we keep it friendly please. Fwiw, I think both sets of views are right here. There is no guarantee of snow in a particular location, so anyone thinking there's a 100% chance of getting a dumping has a reasonable chance of being disappointed. There is, however a risk of some decent snow amounts in places - eg most likely through showers (so by their nature will hit somewhere and miss somewhere else). Anyone wanting a chart to 'prove' it will struggle, since you're going to need to wait for the mesoscale hires models to come in to play at around 48 or so hours out for that sort of thing to be resolved. 

For those wanting the meto's word for it, this is from their latest press release:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/cold-conditions-end-of-february

And for charts, the ensembles give a broad brush kinda guide, in terms of whether there's a chance of precip or not - and as you can see, plenty think there is, but again - detail and specifics are impossible at this point - all they suggest is that the ingredients are more likely than not to be in place for showers:

It is friendly paul we promise  ...most  just having a joke about, keeps everyone on a high even if we hit a low point in the charts  and kicked moki out for trespassing lol 

Edited February 21, 2018 by Snowflake Queen

[Chortle2001]

March 2013 passed me by also in SE Essex. Maybe we missed the good stuff.

[Justin123]

I’m saying it’s again the second SSW is causing the upset… I hope

[snowblind]

10 minutes ago, Southender said:

Jesus H the MAD thread is the worst I have seen it for ages. So many triggered members. Avoid ?

That's the trouble with having so many epic charts over the last few days, but they have been too far away so more chance of them changing. As soon as someone seems something that means it's not so good for them they trash the whole cold spell for everyone and then more people join in and it just mushrooms out of control. Very frustrating and you can't follow what's going on.

There are quite a few members on my ignore list but at the moment I can't add people quick enough!

[Sidsnake]

TBH I've not long come back indoors from watering my sheep and filling all the water troughs.   The temperature has really really dropped.  It is extremely cold already and at this rate I'll be wearing the Ram like a scarf round my neck next week.  Trouble is he weighs an absolute minimum of sixteen stone ??

[fluid dynamic]

Complete and utter snow and cold tourist logging back in, along for the ride again 

 

Felt the easterly start to bite today, noticably chillier to me today

[yamkin]

10 minutes ago, Justin123 said:

I’m saying it’s again the second SSW is causing the upset… I hope

Intense SSW is in action & the models have picked this up, hence today's fluctuations. No need to be concerned as the current Beast From The East is still on course.

The SSW graph had to be extended to new parameters to accommodate the intensification of SSW. This intensification is the result of the energy from the recent CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) from the sun.

[Tom Jarvis]

Lol mod meltdown soon. ecm is even slower but I’m not Worried at the moment. as the models at moving this high too quickly once it’s in position it will be slow moveing not quick 

Edited February 21, 2018 by Tom Jarvis

[Flaked Queen]

https://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/weather/coldest-snap-five-years-way-14320361?ICID=apple_news_trunc

[E17boy]

8 minutes ago, Sidsnake said:

TBH I've not long come back indoors from watering my sheep and filling all the water troughs.   The temperature has really really dropped.  It is extremely cold already and at this rate I'll be wearing the Ram like a scarf round my neck next week.  Trouble is he weighs an absolute minimum of sixteen stone ??

Your right I agree it is much colder today, well it certainly feels like it. I was working in Milton Keynes and when I finished work I certainly felt the chill. On my commute back home now to Euston then Walthamstow 

????

[Wivenswold]

33 minutes ago, Southender said:

Jesus H the MAD thread is the worst I have seen it for ages. So many triggered members. Avoid ?

Ha, sadly I went there before here. Schoolboy error. I've learned more regarding the models in 3-4 posts on this thread than I did wading through the battle over there. Jesus H indeed. 

[lottiekent]

Up to 5.4 here today and mostly sunny. It’s down to 2.9c with a DP of 0c.

Feels a lot cooler...is there somewhere to look up current uppers over us? 

[Paul Sherman]

Has it come into the Day 6-10 yet  

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Fest ECM

And yes 2013 must have passed the Sub Tropical area of SE Essex by as cant remember that spell as well.

Only notables here have been Feb 2005 and Feb 2009 and December 2010 this Century