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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


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Christ. Had to actually talk to the missus. Wife: You have been glued to that phone lately, you looking at porn or something? Me: Yes, yes I am... Wife: You dirty b****** what exactly a

Good evening Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently) MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout th

The SE contingent watching the radar about 4pm Sunday

Posted Images

4 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon Guys:

So as of 06z today these are the following notables for our region & timelines

90% confidence now

Sat- Winds direct SE flow - dewpoints dropping as the day progresses circa -5c peak temps AM ~4c -afternoon temps pegging back early maybe 2c- maybe the outside chance of a flurry ( low )

Sun through the day- Winds backing more Easterly 

Approximate -10c isotherm times ( ahead of GFS ) 2pm Norfolk / East kent - 6pm London - Midnight to the shires

Spread is about 6 to 12 hours ( mainly slower not faster ) - UKMO raw the fastest with the fastest flow -

Sunday Eve Snow ?

This depends on final allignement & because its still 5 days away its still around     60% confidence 

However late eve - Benchmark maybe 8pm Snow showers will start pecking away at EA & Kent - Allignment at this stage is favoured 60% Thames streamer & Essex / Suffolk + London / shires later - 35% Mid kent streamer 5% East kent only - 

EA also included in slow 

*** Remember for widespread snow Thames flow is the best ***

By Monday the consensus is that there should be a window of 24 -36 hours where we peak on shower activity Spreading across the region

Conservative totals ( you have to put zero just incase ) 0-10cm - Up to 20cm in the peak shower zones.

**REMEMBER THIS IS ONLY DAY 1**

Post this things become more & more interesting - There may be a lull across weds ( with deep frost weds ) however attention turns to activity over Scandi as a wave moves west from Siberia -

The images below show the cold, but more impressive is the cold attached circa -28c ( follow the kink )

81D10A9E-7F0D-4E15-AA72-75A2CBD5D051.thumb.png.c5c5ed840825cc3de2685f6951e191c8.pngA35836E3-4B01-459B-AE60-C38134E9FF6D.thumb.png.ec6e677ccd21289d412621b10727b066.png

This kink & wave has a wide cone of where it could go - ( Think hurricane track & cone ) but at the moment the UK is at the centre point of the track in the mean Ensembles -

GEFS is a bullseye

346ED5C1-F827-4BCA-82DC-F4C4288BE05E.thumb.png.aa22406e0ed77e74c384ac090ba153f2.png

This brings the chance of even more substantial snow & probably the peak of the cold - Thurs 

Estimates -15/16 air ( with an outside chance of -18c )

EBC01F89-754D-4AE4-BCB7-43176656C655.thumb.png.eb31b12b4f85c4f1940547772eec1186.png5D630CAD-19BE-4A8C-87B9-E8641A677E65.thumb.png.83cfd48e811f2ae5cac9074b26e64cf1.png

A real deep snow maker-

If not, still lots of snow around / troughs etc-

This would be my guesses at this stage which to be fair are pretty much just for fun ( all be it with a hint of reality )

London 2-4 inches

West of London 0-6inches depending on shower spread-

Essex / Kent - Suffolk / EA 3-18 Inches - again dependent on flow allignment.

Duration of cold ( starting Sat ) 7-14 days( 

S

 

 

 

Great post as always, thanks Steve. But what about sussex (east sussex in particular just to be IMBY ish! :whistling:) Hope you're enjoying warmer climes....back just in time for the real fun and games to start here!

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Anyone rushing out to buy snow socks and snow shovels amongst other things at this stage are really being a bit premature - there is at this stage no set major snow event for EA or the SE according to the charts, unless I am missing something?

Since Monday the charts have been becoming more and more 'developed' and this in turn has meant that the severe Siberian air that threatened is now being partially blocked by disturbances over Norway/Europe. With every run these disturbances are becoming more distinguished and they threaten to shorten our incoming cold spell to a cold snap - with little snow for us in the SE. 

We need to exercise caution with any excitement guys - it's fun times for sure but don't go telling your neighbour we're all in for a 3ft blizzard. Simply ain't gonna happen with todays charts I'm afraid. 

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9 minutes ago, Bogman said:

 

 

More surprised you've got one...............:cc_confused: :hi:

I am married so I would have one !! I have his balls too :rofl:

joke !! Before I get more sad face emojis lol ! The pic was a laugh ( or meant to be ) not sure they do a boob warmer ! 

Edited by Snowflake Queen
For the moany ppl
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4 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Anyone rushing out to buy snow socks and snow shovels amongst other things at this stage are really being a bit premature - there is at this stage no set major snow event for EA or the SE according to the charts, unless I am missing something?

Since Monday the charts have been becoming more and more 'developed' and this in turn has meant that the severe Siberian air that threatened is now being partially blocked by disturbances over Norway/Europe. With every run these disturbances are becoming more distinguished and they threaten to shorten our incoming cold spell to a cold snap - with little snow for us in the SE. 

We need to exercise caution with any excitement guys - it's fun times for sure but don't go telling your neighbour we're all in for a 3ft blizzard. Simply ain't gonna happen with todays charts I'm afraid. 

Maybe check the met office update first before writing that 

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28 minutes ago, Weather_Novice said:

I have no recollection of the frequently cold and snow of March 2013 ... I have no recollection!  Did we get any snow in Essex?  I remember Dec 2010 and no particularly cold, snowy period since! :nonono:

In NW Essex we certainly did. I can remember two fairly substantial snowfalls, the one that sticks in the mind the most was on a Sunday afternoon where we had somewhere close to 6 inches come down (helps that we had a little bit of elevation)

Yet despite all of the incredible snowfalls of those winters, our absolute largest was actually in Feb '12, where we had somewhere between 9-10 inches of powdery gold.

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1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Maybe check the met office update first before writing that 

And have you checked the latest 12z? Forget what the Meto write - they are basing their information on this mornings charts quite likely. Nothing is set in stone at all and is likely to change with every day until Monday - it may either mean the Meto UPGRADE their 'update' or they could even delete it if everything goes pear shaped. Either way Its way too early to go shouting about significant snow for all and the direction of the charts indicate its still all to play for whether any of us in the SE see significant snow next week. 

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9 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Anyone rushing out to buy snow socks and snow shovels amongst other things at this stage are really being a bit premature - there is at this stage no set major snow event for EA or the SE according to the charts, unless I am missing something?

Since Monday the charts have been becoming more and more 'developed' and this in turn has meant that the severe Siberian air that threatened is now being partially blocked by disturbances over Norway/Europe. With every run these disturbances are becoming more distinguished and they threaten to shorten our incoming cold spell to a cold snap - with little snow for us in the SE. 

We need to exercise caution with any excitement guys - it's fun times for sure but don't go telling your neighbour we're all in for a 3ft blizzard. Simply ain't gonna happen with todays charts I'm afraid. 

Can I ask how you know more than the Met office, considering they have been predicting this for a few weeks now & have not backtracked once? 

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We obviously don't know what we will get by the way of snow. If any.  It is suggested that as it could be very cold  with any snow falling being of the powder variety. Great for skiing poor for snowmen.

If it is powder and there is a wind there is a potential for those living in older tiled houses, that are not felted below the tiles, some snow could be blown into the loft space. Recall it happening in a 1930's semi I lived in.  Ended up with snow drifts in the loft space. If there is powder snow and wind it might be prudent to stick your head in the loft space to check if there is a problem. Better than water dripping into the rooms below when it melts.

Hopefully not a problem but you never know.

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3 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

And have you checked the latest 12z? Forget what the Meto write - they are basing their information on this mornings charts quite likely. Nothing is set in stone at all and is likely to change with every day until Monday - it may either mean the Meto UPGRADE their 'update' or they could even delete it if everything goes pear shaped. Either way Its way too early to go shouting about significant snow for all and the direction of the charts indicate its still all to play for whether any of us in the SE see significant snow next week. 

The Met don't just change there forecast because 1 run lol 

 

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2 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

And have you checked the latest 12z? Forget what the Meto write - they are basing their information on this mornings charts quite likely. Nothing is set in stone at all and is likely to change with every day until Monday - it may either mean the Meto UPGRADE their 'update' or they could even delete it if everything goes pear shaped. Either way Its way too early to go shouting about significant snow for all and the direction of the charts indicate its still all to play for whether any of us in the SE see significant snow next week. 

As the MetOffice get to see a great deal of data which we don't, and as the updated extended went online at 3PM this afternoon, it doesn't seem terribly plausible that they based it on info which was several hours out of date. Tb be frank advising anyone to 'forget what the MetO write' and pay attention instead to the musings of a bunch of amateurs (i.e.. most, though not all, of us on NW) is a tad ridiculous.

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Oh god can feel this starting to become the MAD thread 2 :girl_devil:

we have the set up ... we have the cold coming in ... we have the warm up entertainment ( members ) now we are just waiting for the main event ... if and when we do get some snow to me will be a bonus? And hopefully lots of us posting pics of how deep our snow is ! 

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4 minutes ago, snowking said:

Yet despite all of the incredible snowfalls of those winters, our absolute largest was actually in Feb '12, where we had somewhere between 9-10 inches of powdery gold.

Yes - I remember that too.  Didn't last that long if memory serves me right but a lot did come down.  I have photos of that event on my phone, but nothing from Mar '13.

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5 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

And have you checked the latest 12z? Forget what the Meto write - they are basing their information on this mornings charts quite likely. Nothing is set in stone at all and is likely to change with every day until Monday - it may either mean the Meto UPGRADE their 'update' or they could even delete it if everything goes pear shaped. Either way Its way too early to go shouting about significant snow for all and the direction of the charts indicate its still all to play for whether any of us in the SE see significant snow next week. 

They have access to far more info than just the models we see online,up to you if you choose to ignore what they say.

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21 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Just what you expect of tripe eating cockneys :oops:

just had tripe for dinner:oops: jelly eel ice cream for pudding:oops:all the snow has gone to france:oops: cold spell over:oops: i have care bear pyjamas:oops:at least my bucket is clean now:blink2:

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4 minutes ago, Crystal Memories said:

Can I ask how you know more than the Met office, considering they have been predicting this for a few weeks now & have not backtracked once? 

Show me a chart as of the latest 12z run that indicates widespread significant snow for all in Southern and Eastern areas? Copy and paste it in your reply and show us all. 

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11 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

I am married so I would have one !! I have his balls too :rofl:

joke !! Before I get more sad face emojis lol ! The pic was a laugh ( or meant to be ) not sure they do a boob warmer

Furry bra?

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1 minute ago, Matty88 said:

And have you checked the latest 12z? Forget what the Meto write - they are basing their information on this mornings charts quite likely. Nothing is set in stone at all and is likely to change with every day until Monday - it may either mean the Meto UPGRADE their 'update' or they could even delete it if everything goes pear shaped. Either way Its way too early to go shouting about significant snow for all and the direction of the charts indicate its still all to play for whether any of us in the SE see significant snow next week. 

MetO use their own models the public have no access to and also their human input e.g, Faxes. MetO are updating frequently and sending memo's to their paid customers e.g. Croydon Borough Council. I can ensure you that snow is on the agenda with the possibility of significant snow.

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