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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


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Christ. Had to actually talk to the missus. Wife: You have been glued to that phone lately, you looking at porn or something? Me: Yes, yes I am... Wife: You dirty b****** what exactly a

Good evening Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently) MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout th

The SE contingent watching the radar about 4pm Sunday

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1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

BBC weather have been saying this for a few days now (Tomasz Schafernaker said the same thing yesterday). Is this complete rubbish then? Everyone on here seems to think so. I’m not so sure.

they throw wobblers about it on the MAD thread every now and then

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15 hours ago, Wimbledon88 said:

I recall the feb 2009 snow event wasnt being definitely forecast by the beeb or anyone else till the thurs/friday beforehand. Snow showers were forecast for the following Sunday and Monday,well we all remember what happened,10 inches here!! Worth noting that they were more concerned about an area of snow moving up from france on the monday evening,never actually happened.

I also remember the huge dump of snow in Hampshire/Berks/Surrey in Jan 2010,that only popped up in the forecast about 12 hours beforehand.

Small features can make all the difference in very cold weather. And looking at the  outlook from met office( wouldn't pay much heed to tv anymore) who have been more or less spot on for the last year or more with their outlooks,we are in for some fun and games!

Exactly where,when and how much snow,who knows? Just sit back,relax,and watch it unfold.

 

Didn't think the main event was forecast till it was happening, the forecast snow was in reference to a low the next day, which didn't do much at all.

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17 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

isn't there a different equation to a mm of snow nd rain and not just like above. 6mm equates to 6 cm as it stands if I remember right as its 10 x the size of rain..... being nearly a metre if true lol

I't 1:10 for wet snow and 1:20 for dry so the latter for snow next week due to extremely low dew points. However, Metcheck for some weird reasons thinks it can do the calculation for its users ;-)

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What about South Cambridgeshire and NW parts of Essex in terms of snowfall Steve?

20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No Sussex fine esp E sussex but yes good

ironically sussex does best in a SE flow ..

 

Edited by summerplume18
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4 minutes ago, summerplume18 said:

What about South Cambridgeshire and NW parts of Essex in terms of snowfall Steve?

 

The further west you go- we need to keep the stream lines strong to carry the showers

when we get under 48 the hirlam streamlines is good 

Go to meteociel > Hirlam UK > Rafales 10m

will show the shower trains 

70D1ADEF-8E39-4C89-800A-A9B4034FED5A.thumb.png.6cf02ea4a93a41b57f62ca301764321c.png

@abbie123 - Yes more especially 144-168 if that wave alligns properly !

S

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Becoming more hopeful for significant snow next week here in Haywards Heath, West Sussex - it’s been a frustrating winter but that will all be forgotten if we get a decent fall of snow and a proper easterly is always going to be our best chance here! Looking forward to hearing reports and seeing pictures in the not-too-distant future ?

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Seems like another very good MO update to me today.

Looks like, in this region, very cold weather continuing well beyond the 8th March, making this maybe a 2 week plus spell, with plenty of snow opportunities as well to boot.

Let’s hope we all get in on the act at some point.

 

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27 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I don't think most here will even try if it snows. Getting a lot of it won't snow here, but if it does my road don't get gritted so I'm staying home. Last proper snowfall here was from a channel low in 2013, Dover didn't get much snow in town but was completely cut off from surronding areas due to the hills.

Wish they had common sense here!  seems as it starts to come down heavy And settles they all jump in their cars and race who can be the first to make tracks lol. 

December the 10th we had heavy snow I stood at my window laughing at the young neighbour across the road jumped in his big van and struggled trying to get up the road. He abandoned his van half on the road half on the path and walk back into his house. it amazes me that they never learn. ?

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8 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Are you not on holiday ??? 

yep sunbathing but also not going to miss the build up! 

turned over like a bit of toast as the fronts done now - 

ready to use phone 15-1630

smart sunbathing ;)

Edited by Steve Murr
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13 minutes ago, Sussex Snowman said:

Becoming more hopeful for significant snow next week here in Haywards Heath, West Sussex - it’s been a frustrating winter but that will all be forgotten if we get a decent fall of snow and a proper easterly is always going to be our best chance here! Looking forward to hearing reports and seeing pictures in the not-too-distant future ?

Same here, also in Haywards Heath.

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If I plan a BBQ for early next week its bound to snow.

So y'all invited.......unless it snows......in which case you are not invited...........because there will be no bbq to invite you to.......because of snow...... y'all. 

 

 

It's 6.5 degrees on worthing pier, when the wind is not blowing, feels very spring like! 

Edited by tomp456
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1 hour ago, yamkin said:

Intense SSW is in action & the models have picked this up, hence today's fluctuations. No need to be concerned as the current Beast From The East is still on course.

The graph had to be extended to new parameters to accommodate the intensification of SSW. This intensification is the result of the energy from the recent CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) from the sun. Increased blocking.

Yamkin - CMEs come from sunspots and sunspots are supposed to be bad for HLB :cc_confused:

I forgot to add that the sun is quiet atm.. Where did the CME come from?

Edited by D.V.R
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Accuweather really make me laugh with their seasonal forecasts for Europe - Not even a mention of a very cold start to spring but more an enphasis on wind storms as they call them :rofl:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-europe-spring-forecast-severe-weather-to-target-eastern-and-central-europe-shift-to-drier-warmer-weather-from-uk-to-france-and-spain/70004191

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35 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This is what will happen if the winds slacken off after the snow

friday next week maxima then overnight minima

FC31D513-06CF-45BA-A348-40618F69A75B.thumb.png.21d4ca85e989e50ceaa79dc509524a08.pngD9A8B56D-9DB6-4D05-8E91-870D9AB02295.thumb.png.5f64783361fc5b8d1665b8bdd98f563f.png

That’s exactly what we need daytime, no nasty snow melt at all :) Though probably doesn’t need to be quite that cold at night, don’t think my duvet will be enough!

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37 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

yep sunbathing but also not going to miss the build up! 

turned over like a bit of toast as the fronts done now - 

ready to use phone 15-1630

smart sunbathing ;)

I'm currently sunbathing too, Curacao today as part of our Caribbean cruise. However when i get wi-fi I'm still checking in here and the MOD thread to find out what you guys will be getting and what i'll be missing grrrr. It's like an illness we can't help but check the weather :rofl:

Looking forward to seeing all your snow pics and reports. :cold:

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