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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


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9 minutes ago, TyphoonNow said:

i hope you lot have been stocking up on tinned and dried food! ? 

Now confused, have seen some charts where there is very little snow and others where it comes out quite deep here, but obviously taking notice of what Steve Murr says, still going to supermarket on friday, and those of you following baby's progress, he is currently all toasty under his daddy with a full crop of milk.

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Christ. Had to actually talk to the missus. Wife: You have been glued to that phone lately, you looking at porn or something? Me: Yes, yes I am... Wife: You dirty b****** what exactly a

Good evening Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently) MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout th

The SE contingent watching the radar about 4pm Sunday

Posted Images

13 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

Now confused, have seen some charts where there is very little snow and others where it comes out quite deep here, but obviously taking notice of what Steve Murr says, still going to supermarket on friday, and those of you following baby's progress, he is currently all toasty under his daddy with a full crop of milk.

Please, please ignore snow charts. The ones that are available to the public are rubbish and can't capture convective precipitation. What they are showing currently are several options of snow caused by troughs moving through but those are almost as difficult to capture on models as convective stuff. The models know they will move through but have no idea where.

There is one scenario which has been picked up by the GFS and that's a low very close to the UK - hence the insane snowfall totals as I posted from Metcheck earlier. But even that is, in the current setup, very unreliable and could disappear as quickly as it showed up this morning.

Steve's post and MetO extended text forecast as the best to give you an idea what to expect.

Edited by seb
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1 hour ago, seb said:

Well if I were to take GFS precip forecast literally then I'd be under >1.20m of snow by Thursday evening. This is from Metcheck for Ashford which AFAIK uses GFS raw data.

 

Screenshot 2018-02-21 11.37.38.png

Screenshot 2018-02-21 11.37.30.png

Sorry to disappoint but it shows about 102mm of snow in total...about 10cm.

The metcheck site shows snow accumulations in pink, and rain in blue.

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3 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Susan Powell just now on lunchtime news;

A lot of uncertainty for next week on the orientation of HP, will the deepest cold go into France or over the UK”

 

i vote it heads to the uk, the french hate cold weather:closedeyes:

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37 minutes ago, Weather_Novice said:

The BBC were properly slapped for suggesting this yesterday.

They have just mentioned possible snow for some areas in their 1.30 forecast - they seem to be playing catch-up with the MetO at present. The Met Office extended forecast has been pretty consistent for days now.

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The model thread has been absolute carnage today lol.

I'd post in there, but I'm a total novice.....but that doesn't appear to stop others :D:sorry:

I'm very confident of seeing some of the white stuff next week though...perhaps maybe a fair bit of it! :cold:

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Bbc don’t even use met office anymore for their forecasts,might explain the differences between the two now,what a time to lose the met office as their forecast provider,frequent snow showers become more likely from Sunday is the met forecast for SE 

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23 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Susan Powell just now on lunchtime news;

A lot of uncertainty for next week on the orientation of HP, will the deepest cold go into France or over the UK”

 

Yesterday she said whole of U.K. dry next week,so I’m not taking much notice of anything she is saying at the moment

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22 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:

Sorry to disappoint but it shows about 102mm of snow in total...about 10cm.

The metcheck site shows snow accumulations in pink, and rain in blue.

You are indeed correct. Don't use Metcheck normally so not aware of this. Saying that - There are a lot of GFS precip charts for Wed/Thu that show totals close to 15 inches. Not that it matters - we know that apps and publicly available precip charts are useless.

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isn't there a different equation to a mm of snow nd rain and not just like above. 6mm equates to 6 cm as it stands if I remember right as its 10 x the size of rain..... being nearly a metre if true lol

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon Guys:

So as of 06z today these are the following notables for our region & timelines

90% confidence now

Sat- Winds direct SE flow - dewpoints dropping as the day progresses circa -5c peak temps AM ~4c -afternoon temps pegging back early maybe 2c- maybe the outside chance of a flurry ( low )

Sun through the day- Winds backing more Easterly 

Approximate -10c isotherm times ( ahead of GFS ) 2pm Norfolk / East kent - 6pm London - Midnight to the shires

Spread is about 6 to 12 hours ( mainly slower not faster ) - UKMO raw the fastest with the fastest flow -

Sunday Eve Snow ?

This depends on final allignement & because its still 5 days away its still around     60% confidence 

However late eve - Benchmark maybe 8pm Snow showers will start pecking away at EA & Kent - Allignment at this stage is favoured 60% Thames streamer & Essex / Suffolk + London / shires later - 35% Mid kent streamer 5% East kent only - 

EA also included in slow 

*** Remember for widespread snow Thames flow is the best ***

By Monday the consensus is that there should be a window of 24 -36 hours where we peak on shower activity Spreading across the region

Conservative totals ( you have to put zero just incase ) 0-10cm - Up to 20cm in the peak shower zones.

**REMEMBER THIS IS ONLY DAY 1**

Post this things become more & more interesting - There may be a lull across weds ( with deep frost weds ) however attention turns to activity over Scandi as a wave moves west from Siberia -

The images below show the cold, but more impressive is the cold attached circa -28c ( follow the kink )

81D10A9E-7F0D-4E15-AA72-75A2CBD5D051.thumb.png.c5c5ed840825cc3de2685f6951e191c8.pngA35836E3-4B01-459B-AE60-C38134E9FF6D.thumb.png.ec6e677ccd21289d412621b10727b066.png

This kink & wave has a wide cone of where it could go - ( Think hurricane track & cone ) but at the moment the UK is at the centre point of the track in the mean Ensembles -

GEFS is a bullseye

346ED5C1-F827-4BCA-82DC-F4C4288BE05E.thumb.png.aa22406e0ed77e74c384ac090ba153f2.png

This brings the chance of even more substantial snow & probably the peak of the cold - Thurs 

Estimates -15/16 air ( with an outside chance of -18c )

EBC01F89-754D-4AE4-BCB7-43176656C655.thumb.png.eb31b12b4f85c4f1940547772eec1186.png5D630CAD-19BE-4A8C-87B9-E8641A677E65.thumb.png.83cfd48e811f2ae5cac9074b26e64cf1.png

A real deep snow maker-

If not, still lots of snow around / troughs etc-

This would be my guesses at this stage which to be fair are pretty much just for fun ( all be it with a hint of reality )

London 2-4 inches

West of London 0-6inches depending on shower spread-

Essex / Kent - Suffolk / EA 3-18 Inches - again dependent on flow allignment.

Duration of cold ( starting Sat ) 7-14 days( 

S

 

 

 

Steve what about Sussex would we be to far inland for anything? 

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1 minute ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Steve what about Sussex would we be to far inland for anything? 

No Sussex fine esp E sussex but yes good

ironically sussex does best in a SE flow ..

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No Sussex fine esp E sussex but yes good

ironically sussex does best in a SE flow ..

Good to know looks like there will be some fun winter walks on the Ashdown forest then. 

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18 hours ago, Sweetdream said:

My close goes down hill and then bends round, every time it snows and gets icy I watch the drivers sliding all over the place.  I even end up laughing when they try to get up the road and their cars are sitting there spinning or sliding backwards.  

I don't think most here will even try if it snows. Getting a lot of it won't snow here, but if it does my road don't get gritted so I'm staying home. Last proper snowfall here was from a channel low in 2013, Dover didn't get much snow in town but was completely cut off from surronding areas due to the hills.

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37 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Susan Powell just now on lunchtime news;

A lot of uncertainty for next week on the orientation of HP, will the deepest cold go into France or over the UK”

 

BBC weather have been saying this for a few days now (Tomasz Schafernaker said the same thing yesterday). Is this complete rubbish then? Everyone on here seems to think so. I’m not so sure.

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