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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: IN THE FOOT HILLS AND DENSELY FORESTED AREAS OF TUNBRIDGE WELLS IN KENT
  • Weather Preferences: I like a bit of weather
  • Location: IN THE FOOT HILLS AND DENSELY FORESTED AREAS OF TUNBRIDGE WELLS IN KENT
    3 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

    Can one register to have those alerts emailed?

    I really don't know but might look into that.  

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    Christ. Had to actually talk to the missus. Wife: You have been glued to that phone lately, you looking at porn or something? Me: Yes, yes I am... Wife: You dirty b****** what exactly a

    Good evening Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently) MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout th

    The SE contingent watching the radar about 4pm Sunday

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    Posted
  • Location: Silver End, Essex
  • Location: Silver End, Essex
    4 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

    We should start a SE lampost app, everyone puts a camera on their lampost, theres money to be made here:yahoo:

    I wouldn’t make any money, they turn ours off at midnight ???

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    2 hours ago, SenlacJack said:

    Not according to this and many other articles....

    https://www.holtsauto.com/holts/news/7-crazy-winter-driving-myths-busted/

    Fair enough..  I've obviously been misguided by my old man because he's the one that advised me to do it:rolleyes:

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    Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
    4 minutes ago, _anita_ said:

    I wouldn’t make any money, they turn ours off at midnight ???

    Its ok, i have a mate in Clacton thats a genius with Wi fi and cameras, he spent about a week tracking and finding the signal that goes to the lampost outside his house, now he can turn it on and off from his pc.

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    1 hour ago, Weather_Novice said:

    :D

    It is not those drivers (like yourself) who are prepared who are the issue, it is the rest who are unprepared that cause the jams and traffic chaos.

    I can honestly say, I have never caused any traffic jams in the snow due to my under deflated tyres:nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    39 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

    Still looking good ! Tomorrow will be the dead cert I think ? When will ppl learn the only way to know if it’s going to snow is the one and only app needed ....LAMP POSTS :rofl:

    Good thing you thought about that.. :laugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    panic in the mod thread about the cold going into france and a greenland high bringing less cold air:cc_confused:

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

    @yamkin you had the Severe Winter Weather - Level 2 alert yet? Looks good :good:

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    Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
    11 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

    @yamkin you had the Severe Winter Weather - Level 2 alert yet? Looks good :good:

    Yes, especially when you read the regional risks:good:

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
    9 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

    @yamkin you had the Severe Winter Weather - Level 2 alert yet? Looks good :good:

    Croydon Borough Council & Croydon's Emergency Services have received updated memo's regarding the severe oncoming beast onslaught. My understanding is that other Borough Councils & Emergency Services have been updated as well. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
    2 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

    Yes, especially when you read the regional risks:good:

    Certainly highlights the snow risks for our area :friends:I expect it will be upgraded to level 3 on Sunday/early next week ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
    32 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    panic in the mod thread about the cold going into france and a greenland high bringing less cold air:cc_confused:

    My update in the MAD thread will hopefully calm them all down :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
    19 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

    @yamkin you had the Severe Winter Weather - Level 2 alert yet? Looks good :good:

    yep

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
    6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Afternoon Guys:

    So as of 06z today these are the following notables for our region & timelines

    90% confidence now

    Sat- Winds direct SE flow - dewpoints dropping as the day progresses circa -5c peak temps AM ~4c -afternoon temps pegging back early maybe 2c- maybe the outside chance of a flurry ( low )

    Sun through the day- Winds backing more Easterly 

    Approximate -10c isotherm times ( ahead of GFS ) 2pm Norfolk / East kent - 6pm London - Midnight to the shires

    Spread is about 6 to 12 hours ( mainly slower not faster ) - UKMO raw the fastest with the fastest flow -

    Sunday Eve Snow ?

    This depends on final allignement & because its still 5 days away its still around     60% confidence 

    However late eve - Benchmark maybe 8pm Snow showers will start pecking away at EA & Kent - Allignment at this stage is favoured 60% Thames streamer & Essex / Suffolk + London / shires later - 35% Mid kent streamer 5% East kent only - 

    EA also included in slow 

    *** Remember for widespread snow Thames flow is the best ***

    By Monday the consensus is that there should be a window of 24 -36 hours where we peak on shower activity Spreading across the region

    Conservative totals ( you have to put zero just incase ) 0-10cm - Up to 20cm in the peak shower zones.

    **REMEMBER THIS IS ONLY DAY 1**

    Post this things become more & more interesting - There may be a lull across weds ( with deep frost weds ) however attention turns to activity over Scandi as a wave moves west from Siberia -

    The images below show the cold, but more impressive is the cold attached circa -28c ( follow the kink )

    81D10A9E-7F0D-4E15-AA72-75A2CBD5D051.thumb.png.c5c5ed840825cc3de2685f6951e191c8.pngA35836E3-4B01-459B-AE60-C38134E9FF6D.thumb.png.ec6e677ccd21289d412621b10727b066.png

    This kink & wave has a wide cone of where it could go - ( Think hurricane track & cone ) but at the moment the UK is at the centre point of the track in the mean Ensembles -

    GEFS is a bullseye

    346ED5C1-F827-4BCA-82DC-F4C4288BE05E.thumb.png.aa22406e0ed77e74c384ac090ba153f2.png

    This brings the chance of even more substantial snow & probably the peak of the cold - Thurs 

    Estimates -15/16 air ( with an outside chance of -18c )

    EBC01F89-754D-4AE4-BCB7-43176656C655.thumb.png.eb31b12b4f85c4f1940547772eec1186.png5D630CAD-19BE-4A8C-87B9-E8641A677E65.thumb.png.83cfd48e811f2ae5cac9074b26e64cf1.png

    A real deep snow maker-

    If not, still lots of snow around / troughs etc-

    This would be my guesses at this stage which to be fair are pretty much just for fun ( all be it with a hint of reality )

    London 2-4 inches

    West of London 0-6 inches depending on shower speead-

    Essex / Kent - Suffolk 3-18 Inches - again dependent on flow allignment.

    Duration of cold ( starting Sat ) 7-14 days( 

    S

     

     

     

    Lovely post Steve. Fingers crossed for Mother Thames to fire up....will be watching here intently as the first port of call on any Thames train....

    Edited by Southender
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    Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow - Frost - A beach in the Med
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL

    Will be doing my snow dance Sunday

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

    here it comes! it's raining.

    Btw is Bedfordshire getting nowt? :rofl:

    Edited by Dami
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    Posted
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
    11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Afternoon Guys:

    So as of 06z today these are the following notables for our region & timelines

    90% confidence now

    Sat- Winds direct SE flow - dewpoints dropping as the day progresses circa -5c peak temps AM ~4c -afternoon temps pegging back early maybe 2c- maybe the outside chance of a flurry ( low )

    Sun through the day- Winds backing more Easterly 

    Approximate -10c isotherm times ( ahead of GFS ) 2pm Norfolk / East kent - 6pm London - Midnight to the shires

    Spread is about 6 to 12 hours ( mainly slower not faster ) - UKMO raw the fastest with the fastest flow -

    Sunday Eve Snow ?

    This depends on final allignement & because its still 5 days away its still around     60% confidence 

    However late eve - Benchmark maybe 8pm Snow showers will start pecking away at EA & Kent - Allignment at this stage is favoured 60% Thames streamer & Essex / Suffolk + London / shires later - 35% Mid kent streamer 5% East kent only - 

    EA also included in slow 

    *** Remember for widespread snow Thames flow is the best ***

    By Monday the consensus is that there should be a window of 24 -36 hours where we peak on shower activity Spreading across the region

    Conservative totals ( you have to put zero just incase ) 0-10cm - Up to 20cm in the peak shower zones.

    **REMEMBER THIS IS ONLY DAY 1**

    Post this things become more & more interesting - There may be a lull across weds ( with deep frost weds ) however attention turns to activity over Scandi as a wave moves west from Siberia -

    The images below show the cold, but more impressive is the cold attached circa -28c ( follow the kink )

    81D10A9E-7F0D-4E15-AA72-75A2CBD5D051.thumb.png.c5c5ed840825cc3de2685f6951e191c8.pngA35836E3-4B01-459B-AE60-C38134E9FF6D.thumb.png.ec6e677ccd21289d412621b10727b066.png

    This kink & wave has a wide cone of where it could go - ( Think hurricane track & cone ) but at the moment the UK is at the centre point of the track in the mean Ensembles -

    GEFS is a bullseye

    346ED5C1-F827-4BCA-82DC-F4C4288BE05E.thumb.png.aa22406e0ed77e74c384ac090ba153f2.png

    This brings the chance of even more substantial snow & probably the peak of the cold - Thurs 

    Estimates -15/16 air ( with an outside chance of -18c )

    EBC01F89-754D-4AE4-BCB7-43176656C655.thumb.png.eb31b12b4f85c4f1940547772eec1186.png5D630CAD-19BE-4A8C-87B9-E8641A677E65.thumb.png.83cfd48e811f2ae5cac9074b26e64cf1.png

    A real deep snow maker-

    If not, still lots of snow around / troughs etc-

    This would be my guesses at this stage which to be fair are pretty much just for fun ( all be it with a hint of reality )

    London 2-4 inches

    West of London 0-6inches depending on shower spread-

    Essex / Kent - Suffolk / EA 3-18 Inches - again dependent on flow allignment.

    Duration of cold ( starting Sat ) 7-14 days( 

    S

     

     

     

    Running a small shop - sounds like I may have some impromptu days off work from this.  It will be the first time in 6 years that I have been in business ... Lets see

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    Posted
  • Location: TW13
  • Weather Preferences: Cold
  • Location: TW13

    Slight change of wording from the met today, looking 'mainly dry' at the beginning of the week. Hopefully they are just playing it safe..... 

    UK Outlook for Monday 26 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2018:

    It will be turning much colder next week. Monday and Tuesday will be mainly dry with sunny spells, but snow showers will develop across some eastern and southern areas, where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through the rest of the week it will remain cold with an increased risk of ice, frost and snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east and across southern England. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
    1 minute ago, Easily sled said:

    Slight change of wording from the met today, looking 'mainly dry' at the beginning of the week. Hopefully they are just playing it safe..... 

     

    The BBC were properly slapped for suggesting this yesterday.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    24 minutes ago, yamkin said:

    My update in the MAD thread will hopefully calm them all down :D

    you got two confused smiley reactions in the MOD thread, why is that, there is another SSW isn't there?

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
    4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    you got two confused smiley reactions in the MOD thread, why is that, there is another SSW isn't there?

    Intense SSW is in action & the models have picked this up, hence today's fluctuations. No need to be concerned as the current Beast From The East is still on course.

    The graph had to be extended to new parameters to accommodate the intensification of SSW. This intensification is the result of the energy from the recent CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) from the sun. Increased blocking.

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