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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


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Christ. Had to actually talk to the missus. Wife: You have been glued to that phone lately, you looking at porn or something? Me: Yes, yes I am... Wife: You dirty b****** what exactly a

Good evening Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently) MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout th

The SE contingent watching the radar about 4pm Sunday

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Great runs again this morning absolutely stunning I've told my lot how I'm working things 

Today is 70/30 day 70% that we will see deep cold 30% we won't

Tomorrow it will be 80/20 

Friday 90/10 

The funny thing is, the run up to Sunday bar some warmer temps Saturday is actually pretty cold compared to some weather we have seen this winter a patch of - 8 uppers drifts into the region tonight tomorrow and into Friday so certainly some hard frosts from tonight, I woke up to a light frost this morning! 

Last week I said D day was today and that's spot on, from today we are officially cold.. Albeit not brutal cold that is due Sunday. Just standard winter weather lovely jubbly! 

Also, Arpege brings cold air in Sunday morning and slowly brings in the much colder air over Sunday, expect first snow Sunday afternoon /Evening 

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Damn you RD i was just about to say the same. I will be pleased when this starts as woke up 3.30 went toilet checked the threads everything ok no downgrades only slight up ticks. Back to sleep ahhhh lol

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ECM disappointing this morning if it’s heavy snow and constant snow you want for next week (which most of us do, let’s not pretend)

ECM fantastic for very cold, dry and hard frosts for next week.

 

Edited by Ben Lewis
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I don't get the mod thread lol! The ECM short term up to Monday is stonking again complaining about what it is showing 7 days in advance lol! 

I guess it's the northern lot moaning again 

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Just now, Ben Lewis said:

ECM disappointing this morning if it’s heavy snow and constant snow you want for next week (which most of us do, let’s not prentent)

ECM fantastic for very cold, dry and hard frosts for next week.

 

Only towards the end of the week, the start of the week looks fantastic 

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10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I don't get the mod thread lol! The ECM short term up to Monday is stonking again complaining about what it is showing 7 days in advance lol! 

I guess it's the northern lot moaning again 

They are posting what the run is showing.

Just like posting a snow bomb chart 7 days away. 

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2 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

They are posting what the run is showing.

Just like posting a snow bomb chart 7 days away. 

One run though, will be different again tonight I don't get how these people run day to day lives if they get so emotional over one run  lol! 

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A lovely winter morning here, the cloud that has plagued the area has gone and it’s frosty with clear skies and a light NE’ly wind.

Models continue to churn out very good charts for a cold spell, some great consistency over the last few days with encouraging Met Office updates. Hopefully, this will be a spell to remember with plenty of snow, but cold and sunny would be a good second, imo. A blizzard would, of course, be quite exciting and I’d be a child again lol.

Edited by stainesbloke
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Yes, a good set of models runs. Nowhere near as immense as yesterdays 6z GFS, but still good enough for plenty of snow chances (and not all convective). Some runs are better than others for widespread snow showers (GEM and UKMO), but on Tuesday most develop a small feature traversing south west which delivers a more organise period of snow. One to keep an eye on as we head towards the weekend.   

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Morning all,

Well models still looking good, for delivering the "beast", later on Sunday, on into next week.

If those predicted 850s of circa -12c or so, come to fruition, flowing over the southern North Sea/Thames Estuary ( with surface temps, around +7c, and with a favourable, direction of flow, there could well be some beefy, snow showers about. Wouldn't be surprised if there's some "thundersnow", about, for some locations, a la Feb 2009.

Dartford, Feb 2009.

 

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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41 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

When will the hi-res models start to bring this into view? Tomorrow?

Here's how far out the various High Res models go, so Icon UK just picking up Sunday. All available on Meteociel from the list on the left and the UK flag! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon-eu.php?map=510

Icon 120 hrs
Arpege 114 hrs
NMM 72 hrs
Hirlam 48 hrs
Arome 42 hrs

9 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

I think this is sounding ok

BC8CC975-8093-4D60-96B4-7DE2B38511BD.png

Hi Donna. Yes, this week is getting colder with maybe some flurries by Sunday. But our main interest is next week with the VERY cold air arriving Monday and (hopefully!) some beefy snow showers kicking in later Monday into Tuesday.

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4 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

Well models still looking good, for delivering the "beast", later on Sunday, on into next week.

If those predicted 850s of circa -12c or so, come to fruition, flowing over the southern North Sea/Thames Estuary ( with surface temps, around +7c, and with a favourable, direction of flow, there could well be some beefy, snow showers about. Wouldn't be surprised if there's some "thundersnow", about, for some locations, a la Feb 2009.

Dartford, Feb 2009.

 

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

I’ve seen thundersnow only twice in the UK in my 44 years here, a third time would be amazing. Hopefully, you are correct about those snow showers. An interesting week or two to come.

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Looks like the conditions are going to be right. 

Lets get the game going 

LATE WiNTER FREEZE CHAMPIONSHIP CUP

Starts this Sunday

ATLANTIC WARMERS v EASTERLY UNITED

Game being held after many years at the Southeast Model Output Snowball Ground

kickoff subject to the arrival of Mr Snowflake ❄️ host of the game

We are all ready now so here it goes

ITS COMMING ........ITS COMMING.............SNOWBALL iIS COMMING HOME.........

TIckets available at the Met OFfice booking centre

see you all there ????

❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️

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Cool in Norwich this morning, overcast and damp, no frost, hopefully will clear east during the day and start to cool down. Some interesting day temps coming out on the BBC forecasts this morning with -2 daytime on Monday/Tuesday.

Time to drain down your outside taps and make sure they are covered up!

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16 minutes ago, runboy said:

Cool in Norwich this morning, overcast and damp, no frost, hopefully will clear east during the day and start to cool down. Some interesting day temps coming out on the BBC forecasts this morning with -2 daytime on Monday/Tuesday.

Time to drain down your outside taps and make sure they are covered up!

Thanks for that reminder about the outside tap, that’s something I forgot.  It’s really important.

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