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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


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2 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Everyone across the South has a chance, we won't know for certain till much nearer the time - we might get an idea 72-48 hours beforehand but a lot of it will be now-casting for Snow.

Hopefully @Uxbridge90 it's been such a long time without snow, we all need some white beauty :)

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Good evening Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently) MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout th

The SE contingent watching the radar about 4pm Sunday

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6 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

Morning guys, sorry to interrupt :) I am not quite expert like most of you guys on reading charts. Do we still have a chance for snow in Brighton? Some people are complaining about changing picture ???

The key to snow is cold, at the risk of stating the obvious.

All of the models show deep cold coming in very early next week and, for example upper temps of -10 over  Brighton. Compare that to -5 being a reasonable indicative threshold for snow amongst other indicators, and you can see the conditions are good.

Next step required is precipitation and with easterlies this isn’t big masses of cloud like you see with storms coming over the Atlantic, but is convective showers where moisture is sucked up by winds passing over the sea and wet ground. This is where the snow is likely to come from and is looking hopeful.

Only when we are 24-48 hours away will anyone have a cogent view on snow forecasting.

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25 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Just a quick bit of advice to anyone that pops into the MOD thread and sees people getting in a tiz waz about downgrades. Rule of thumb i've found is to look at their location (not easy to do if viewing on mobile phone, granted, but when on a desktop it's there in plain sight). Reason being, and although some see the overall picture for the whole UK, we all really are only interested in snow for our location and not someone, in our case, who lives in the NW of England or Ireland for example.

Generally with an Easterly incursion, we in the SE are in one of the prime positions and i see no evidence why this shouldn't be the case again this time around. Whether it's a repeat of 1991 remains to be seen but here's hoping. Good luck to all and please, come Monday/Tuesday, look up from your phones, ipads and laptops and take a look out the window - it may just be snowing outside...

...so get out there and go build a snowman!

On a mobile phone go to the three dots next your address bar and open the menu, scroll down and you'll see "Request Desktop Mode" click that and you'll see locations on the phone - it seems okay to navigate on a touch screen phone this way for me, depends on how technically able you are I suppose. 

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4 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Everyone across the South has a chance, we won't know for certain till much nearer the time - we might get an idea 72-48 hours beforehand but a lot of it will be now-casting for Snow.

The South East will be among hardest hit places I see. For cold and snow.

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Someone’s already said it but I’ll reiterate, the mod thread is National. It’s always skewed by imbyism as opposed to local conditions. The charts for the SE still look amazing, the rest of the country not as good.

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51 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

...so get out there and go build a snowman

Hello Roadrunner.

That may be a bit difficult as the snow might be too powdery, due to the extreme cold.:yahoo:

Kind Regards

Dave

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Not being 'down beat' I'm being practical.  Cloudy here with a breeze and it does feel colder - but anyway still not excited.

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Another dose of SSW is in action & the models have picked this up, hence today's fluctuations. No need to be concerned as the current Beast From The East is still on course.

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42 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Another dose of SSW is in action & the models have picked this up, hence today's fluctuations. No need to be concerned as the current Beast From The East is still on course.

The graph had to be extended to new parameters to accommodate the intensification of SSW. The intensification is the result of the energy from the recent CME. Exciting times ahead!

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Well if I were to take GFS precip forecast literally then I'd be under >1.20m of snow by Thursday evening. This is from Metcheck for Ashford which AFAIK uses GFS raw data.

 

Screenshot 2018-02-21 11.37.38.png

Screenshot 2018-02-21 11.37.30.png

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13 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Still looking good ! Tomorrow will be the dead cert I think ? When will ppl learn the only way to know if it’s going to snow is the one and only app needed ....LAMP POSTS :rofl:

We should start a SE lampost app, everyone puts a camera on their lampost, theres money to be made here:yahoo:

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