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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


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Christ. Had to actually talk to the missus. Wife: You have been glued to that phone lately, you looking at porn or something? Me: Yes, yes I am... Wife: You dirty b****** what exactly a

Good evening Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently) MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout th

The SE contingent watching the radar about 4pm Sunday

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4 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

Well models still looking good, for delivering the "beast", later on Sunday, on into next week.

If those predicted 850s of circa -12c or so, come to fruition, flowing over the southern North Sea/Thames Estuary ( with surface temps, around +7c, and with a favourable, direction of flow, there could well be some beefy, snow showers about. Wouldn't be surprised if there's some "thundersnow", about, for some locations, a la Feb 2009.

Dartford, Feb 2009.

 

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

I’ve seen thundersnow only twice in the UK in my 44 years here, a third time would be amazing. Hopefully, you are correct about those snow showers. An interesting week or two to come.

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Looks like the conditions are going to be right. 

Lets get the game going 

LATE WiNTER FREEZE CHAMPIONSHIP CUP

Starts this Sunday

ATLANTIC WARMERS v EASTERLY UNITED

Game being held after many years at the Southeast Model Output Snowball Ground

kickoff subject to the arrival of Mr Snowflake ❄️ host of the game

We are all ready now so here it goes

ITS COMMING ........ITS COMMING.............SNOWBALL iIS COMMING HOME.........

TIckets available at the Met OFfice booking centre

see you all there ????

❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️

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Cool in Norwich this morning, overcast and damp, no frost, hopefully will clear east during the day and start to cool down. Some interesting day temps coming out on the BBC forecasts this morning with -2 daytime on Monday/Tuesday.

Time to drain down your outside taps and make sure they are covered up!

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16 minutes ago, runboy said:

Cool in Norwich this morning, overcast and damp, no frost, hopefully will clear east during the day and start to cool down. Some interesting day temps coming out on the BBC forecasts this morning with -2 daytime on Monday/Tuesday.

Time to drain down your outside taps and make sure they are covered up!

Thanks for that reminder about the outside tap, that’s something I forgot.  It’s really important.

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12 hours ago, D.V.R said:

lol..Any rwd is bad.. My wife had a Lexus in 2009 and she got stuck on a roundabout:laugh:

I've got a small Mazda which is front wheel drive. Another trick is too deflate your tyres a little in the snow so tyres have a wider grip.

Not according to this and many other articles....

https://www.holtsauto.com/holts/news/7-crazy-winter-driving-myths-busted/

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7 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

Doesn't look as good for us here, delayed till monday evening now and then no longer showing blizzard, just patchy sleet.

What are you talking about,read the met office text forecast for our region !!!

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Honestly can't understand any of the downbeat posts either here or in the MAD thread.

Nothing in the big picture has changed. It will be extremely cold from Monday morning onwards (always been shown like this); we will be under an Easterly flow with beefy showers continuously coming in from the North Sea. These are not and will not be picked up by any models that are accessible to the public, what the precip models are showing are areas of snow associated with troughs that may or may not happen.

Now for the period from Thu/Fri next week, models diverge. However, given the default behaviour in set ups like this it is more than likely that the cold will continue for a while.

And once again - forget any apps or computer generated day-by-day forecasts. Stick to MetO text forecasts.

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Just a quick bit of advice to anyone that pops into the MOD thread and sees people getting in a tiz waz about downgrades. Rule of thumb i've found is to look at their location (not easy to do if viewing on mobile phone, granted, but when on a desktop it's there in plain sight). Reason being, and although some see the overall picture for the whole UK, we all really are only interested in snow for our location and not someone, in our case, who lives in the NW of England or Ireland for example.

Generally with an Easterly incursion, we in the SE are in one of the prime positions and i see no evidence why this shouldn't be the case again this time around. Whether it's a repeat of 1991 remains to be seen but here's hoping. Good luck to all and please, come Monday/Tuesday, look up from your phones, ipads and laptops and take a look out the window - it may just be snowing outside...

...so get out there and go build a snowman!

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2 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

the charts were better yesterday, different this morning

By charts you mean computer generated forecasts I assume? Forget about them....

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The met office have not changed their outlook one bit,the model runs are the same in the RELIABLE timeframe give up ,how can you think they have changed,which forecasts are you look at then.

Edited by SLEETY
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I can’t see location only on  my pad not phone,yes it’s mainly people from NW that keep moaning ,the NW U.K. is the worst place to be for Easterlies ,so why they keep moaning I do not know,they always appear some posters  if there is any sign of a downgrade from the models,as if they hope other places further east will miss out,so pathetic!

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Not allowed to post a chart been told not too, unsure of what model one with different coloured snowflakes has moderate to heavy snow showers midday Monday near estuary mouth. Becoming increasingly unstable. 

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The amount of downbeat posts on here. LOL.

Almost as bad as the negativity surrounding summer storms! 

 

You all must be more positive!

 

Pot kettle black I know 

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Weatheronline update for the week ahead is a blinder. Very cold and increasing chances of more persistent snow, with daytime temperatures around freezing. Lovely jubbly. I’m allowing myself to get moderately excited.

Edited by stainesbloke
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5 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

Morning guys, sorry to interrupt :) I am not quite expert like most of you guys on reading charts. Do we still have a chance for snow in Brighton? Some people are complaining about changing picture ???

Everyone across the South has a chance, we won't know for certain till much nearer the time - we might get an idea 72-48 hours beforehand but a lot of it will be now-casting for Snow.

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