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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


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21 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

They're talking about cold weather and the risk of snow, they are not calling feet of snow or widespread blizzards, BBC are talking about the cold weather next week, they're just not going into detail which I think is about right.

They’re saying next week is going to be dry? That’s just not a truthful reflection of NWP. I don't know where they’re getting it from thin air? Even “horror” GFS had something significantly wintry, albeit much shorter than ECM.

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3 minutes ago, shotski said:

its there general 10 day forecast that are out of kilter with met office forecasts. Next Tuesday high of 5 and low of 0, end of next week high of 8 ???? I’m not saying this can’t happen but where are they getting that from ?

I agree, based on current modeling those values seem absurd.. You can only wonder if it’s a human bod overally manually inputting and taking the UK typical weather and fading out to normal values.. who knows! 

But giving credit to BBC (awful new graphics by the way) I think they are projecting this ‘possible’ very very cold event sensibly. 

Many things can still go wrong, we are still 7 days away from a possible deep cold wave - my reckoning is, if these insane charts are continuing come Thursday evening for early next week expect a very different forecast post Thursday morning.

If they are not... then all credit to the BBC and you have to give them the thumbs up for not alerting unnecessary panic. 

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It doesn’t matter if it’s 1cm or even 10 ft of snow/ or absolutely nothing.  The weather will do what it wants .  

‘The only big winners in a cold setup is the energy companies. They rub their hands together but not to keep them warm but in glee of how much profit they are going to rake in ?

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38 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

even on the local southeast weather ,they just said the outlook is settled and drier :cc_confused:

edit...NICK L on the mad thread just posted that there will be severe disruption over large swathes of the country , so where are the meteogroup getting their ideas from.

Depends how you define ‘Outlook’.

Surprised at the beeb given just how many snowflakes work for it! 

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The BBC forecasts tend to be skewed away from the potential extremes both cold and warm. Same happens in the summer during hotter spells as well.

No change from me tonight, the cold is still incoming and it will be more brutal than anything we have seen in a good few years and yes I think we will see decent amounts of snow to boot. It is just a question of how cold and how snowy.

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Just popped to mod thread oh my days one post said that the vortex heading straight for Kent/Sussex, looking at the chart that’s just where it’s heading. Some wonderful runs. 

I have been doing my food shopping online and have ordered some extra soup, bigger milk (don’t drink much) nappies wipes  extra eggs. And a rub of  hot chocolate, thought it might be nice if it does snow to give to the kids after they come in from the cold. It will all be used in reasonable amount of time if it all does go belly up. Also ordered an extra gas bottle. That is one advantage of having gas bottles that if the electric does go out we have a warm house still. I haven’t gone crazy but I’ve made sure that as a family of six we have enough food to get us through a few days of snow if needed. If there is no snow with four children it will all be gobbled up pretty fast anyway. 

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5 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

Just popped to mod thread oh my days one post said that the vortex heading straight for Kent/Sussex, looking at the chart that’s just where it’s heading. Some wonderful runs. 

I have been doing my food shopping online and have ordered some extra soup, bigger milk (don’t drink much) nappies wipes  extra eggs. It will all be used in reasonable amount of time if it all does go belly up. Also ordered an extra gas bottle. That is one advantage of having gas bottles that if the electric does go out we have a warm house still. I haven’t gone crazy but I’ve made sure that as a family of six we have enough food to get us through a few days of snow if needed. If there is no snow with four children it will all be gobbled up pretty fast anyway.

Problem is will the delivery driver be able to get to you in the “snow “ my hubby drives for a “posh” firm and the drivers have all been told that many roads ( small lanes ) will not be accessible... so customers won’t get thier shopping 

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27 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Take that forecast with a pinch of salt regarding no snow being shown

Bit of a Funky forecast that. She said that temps would struggle to get to 4 degrees in places Thursday and then goes on to put a temp of 6 on the outlook. This is really starting to remind me of 1991 but with a tad colder uppers. I remember driving to work when it began. There were snow grains wisping along the Road  in the increasing wind. It kicked off the next Day as the colder temps moved in. Constant Snow for 2 Days. Not always heavy but it all added up to over a foot. Drifting was the main problem due to the Powdery nature of the Snow. It was mostly over by the Weekend but stayed cold for a good few days after. What is being forecast looks like an extra couple of days on top of that and very possibly more. If you like mild Weather I think you may be a tad depressed by the end of the Month.

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1 minute ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Problem is will the delivery drive be able to get to you in the “snow “ my hubby drives for a “posh” firm and the drivers have all been told that many roads ( small lanes ) will not be accessible... so customers won’t get thier shopping 

Mine is a tcso he has to drive up to kings lynn onto to Great Yarmouth checking on all traffic management making sure diversions and sign are correct..  more is involved but would take an age to write lol.  Problem is if it snows all works will be called off. 

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6 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Problem is will the delivery driver be able to get to you in the “snow “ my hubby drives for a “posh” firm and the drivers have all been told that many roads ( small lanes ) will not be accessible... so customers won’t get thier shopping 

I’m getting it sent at the weekend. So hopefully won’t be to bad by that point.

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1 minute ago, Sweetdream said:

Mine is a tcso he has to drive up to kings lynn onto to Great Yarmouth checking on all traffic management making sure diversions and sign are correct..  more is involved but would take an age to write lol.  Problem is if it snows all works will be called off. 

That’s the thing it can disrupt so many ppl ... don’t get me wrong would love to see a memorable event happen but ..

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1 minute ago, Snowflake Queen said:

That’s the thing it can disrupt so many ppl ... don’t get me wrong would love to see a memorable event happen but ..

I don’t mind when it sticks around for a couple of days but when it lasts and the cold hangs around longer, I get fed up with it.  It’s horrible when it goes all slushy and everything is water logged. 

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54 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Re: BBC/Met Office Forecasts.

60 million people in the UK rely on them. Business rely on them for normal running etc.. they absolutely cannot start talking about feet of snow this far out for a couple of reasons.

1. It'll cause unnecessary panic to the elderly

2. If it doesn't happen, it ruins their reputation and are less likely to be believed. 

This is shaping up to what could be quite a serious weather event, the BBC and Met Office are not just going to willy nilly ramp it up when the snow lets face it is still almost a week away. Whilst it'd be nice for us weather folk for BBC forecasts to show raging blizzards and feet of snow, that's just not the reality and they have to be sensible about it.

Come Thursday, I suspect they'll be talking about it more seriously, at the moment it's just too early.

The point is that the forecast TV presenters are saying Dry next week. They should be saying Possibility Of Snow........Matt at BBC Weather has updated his video saying the Possibility Of Snow next week.

MetO have been mentioning the possibility of snow next week.

Edited by yamkin
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3 minutes ago, Sweetdream said:

I don’t mind when it sticks around for a couple of days but when it lasts and the cold hangs around longer, I get fed up with it.  It’s horrible when it goes all slushy and everything is water logged. 

I hate slush turning back to solid ice, the roads and pavement become a nightmare.

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Just now, D.V.R said:

I hate slush turning back to solid ice, the roads and pavement become a nightmare.

My close goes down hill and then bends round, every time it snows and gets icy I watch the drivers sliding all over the place.  I even end up laughing when they try to get up the road and their cars are sitting there spinning or sliding backwards.  

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1 minute ago, Sweetdream said:

My close goes down hill and then bends round, every time it snows and gets icy I watch the drivers sliding all over the place.  I even end up laughing when they try to get up the road and their cars are sitting there spinning or sliding backwards.  

 you're wicked lol.. 

my car park is on an incline so I make sure my car's parked at the top when it snows..

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1 hour ago, PLANET THANET said:

even on the local southeast weather ,they just said the outlook is settled and drier :cc_confused:

edit...NICK L on the mad thread just posted that there will be severe disruption over large swathes of the country , so where are the meteogroup getting their ideas from.

Maybe the Meteogroup ideas surrounds a lucky dip game :rofl:

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5 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

 you're wicked lol.. 

my car park is on an incline so I make sure my car's parked at the top when it snows..

Just make sure you don’t have a Mercedes, even on a straight road they spin and slide. I know that first hand as it did it to me. Probably the worst car we had had in winter conditions. Lol 

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The beeb and METO are about the most used (both in terms of read by individuals and contracted to supply weather) of any of he organisations in the U.K. they are not going to call it till it’s firy nailed on.

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Evening all,

Well steady as she goes. The last few days model runs, have produced some of the most wintry looking synoptics, I've witnessed, since I started viewing model runs, on the internet, in 2003/04 and then became a member of this forum, in Jan. 2005!!

Just want to post up a few links. First one explaining the dynamics of "Lake effect snow", or in our case, "North Sea/Thames Estuary effect snow ".

In the United Kingdom, easterly winds bringing cold continental air across the North Sea can lead to a similar phenomenon. Locally it is also known as "lake-effect snow" despite the snow coming in from the sea rather than a lake.[31] Similarly during a north-westerly wind, snow showers can form coming in from the Liverpool Bay, coming down the Cheshire gap, causing snowfall in the West Midlands—this formation resulted in the white Christmas of 2004 in the area, and most recently the heavy snowfall of 8 December 2017.[32] A similar phenomenon can affect the city of Inverness in the Scottish Highlands, where cold north east winds cause heavy snow to form in the Moray Firth; this was the case with the White Hogmanay of 2009, which caused the street party to be canceled. Northerly and north-westerly winds can cause the effect to occur over the Irish Sea and Bristol Channel feeding snow into south-west England and Eastern Ireland. Western Scotland and the north of Ireland can also see snow showers from a north or north-westerly wind over the Atlantic.

263px-Caspiansatelliteimage.jpg
 
Lake effect clouds over Caspian Sea on Jan 07 2008

Since the North Sea is relatively warm (around 13 °C or 55.4 °F at the beginning of winter, typically 10 to 6 °C or 50 to 43 °F by the end), sufficiently cold air aloft can create significant snowfalls in a relatively short period of time. The best-known example occurred in January 1987, when record-breaking cold air (associated with an upper low) moved across the North Sea towards the UK. The end result was over a foot of snow for coastal areas, leading to communities being cut off for over a week. In recent years, lake-effect snow has been much lighter and less frequent. The most recent lake-effect snowfall event along the east coast of England was on 30 November 2017, coming four years after the previous event.[33]

Hopefully, we will develop a favourable alignment, to the flow and we can sit back and watch those bitterly cold 850 temps flowing over  the relatively mild temps, of the Southern N.Sea/Thames Estuary, do their worst.

Now a link to current sea temps, around, our coastal waters.

https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/united-kingdom/southend-on-sea.htm

Finally, a link to the Dutch radar site, to view, what's hopefully coming at us, everything crossed, during this spell.

https://www.buienradar.nl/

Really hope, I havn't jinxed this now.

Regards,

Tom.:hi:

 

 

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955  bbc  news 24 that the best one miles better then country file as for the bbc  i just dont were they geting   it from if you go by gfs ,and others  if they come uk will come to a halt!!

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6 minutes ago, Sweetdream said:

Just make sure you don’t have a Mercedes, even on a straight road they spin and slide. I know that first hand as it did it to me. Probably the worst car we had had in winter conditions. Lol 

lol..Any rwd is bad.. My wife had a Lexus in 2009 and she got stuck on a roundabout:laugh:

I've got a small Mazda which is front wheel drive. Another trick is too deflate your tyres a little in the snow so tyres have a wider grip.

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