Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

Recommended Posts

58 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

Just thought about all the homeless people we see now in our towns and how they will survive. I remember walking through Chelmsford on a chilly night and they where all so cold and shivering. What will they do?

Emergency shelters will be opened due to the severe threat of the oncoming beast from the east

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

I wonder if it’ll happen this time...

I think if it gets to Thursday and we’re seeing similar (although I’m sure watered down by then) runs then I’ll genuinely start thinking about stocking up a little. 

Being in a village on the Downs you tend to get stuck for a day or two if you get drifting, as happened in 2010!

The best resemblance i can make for the synoptics  in this event is 2010, a nice SSW and the cold was seen well ahead and ran into us nice and smoothly with no watering down, since then yes we have had many awful failures, but none have had what we are seeing once again and this time its an SSW for the history books, will this lead to history making weather for us? I really don't know!!.............Gonna be fun watching though.:cold:

I think sometimes 2010 made newcomers to this funny game we play, think that it was all so easy, when in reality its ruddy hard:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Chris101 said:

The best resemblance i can make for the synoptics  in this event is 2010, a nice SSW and the cold was seen well ahead and ran into us nice and smoothly with no watering down, since then yes we have had many awful failures, but none have had what we are seeing once again and this time its an SSW for the history books, will this lead to history making weather for us? I really don't know!!.............Gonna be fun watching though.:cold:

I think sometimes 2010 made newcomers to this funny game we play, think that it was all so easy, when in reality its ruddy hard:)

It’s a tiring hobby, that’s for sure! 

Going back to the BBC snow watch board days, at least they had a curfew so all us weather nuts couldn’t be up until the small hours like we are now  :lazy:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My Twitter has been crazy lately definitely today or now yesterday a major uptick in interest in this beast from the east probably following beeb being more bullish. Sit back, and watch unfold for once? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

The best resemblance i can make for the synoptics  in this event is 2010, a nice SSW and the cold was seen well ahead and ran into us nice and smoothly with no watering down, since then yes we have had many awful failures, but none have had what we are seeing once again and this time its an SSW for the history books, will this lead to history making weather for us? I really don't know!!.............Gonna be fun watching though.:cold:

I think sometimes 2010 made newcomers to this funny game we play, think that it was all so easy, when in reality its ruddy hard:)

I don't think there was a SSW  prior to the cold outbreak in 2010

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I don't think there was a SSW  prior to the cold outbreak in 2010

Yep I believe so I think there was one though and and it scuppered the cold from extending into January. In the position of where we are now we needed a ‘reset’ to get out the rut of powerful vortex and westerly momentum. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I don't think there was a SSW  prior to the cold outbreak in 2010

https://www.rmets.org/sites/default/files/pdf/presentation/20110205-blackburn.pdf

 

Quote

The winter of 2009-2010 was marked by a significant stratospheric warming event peaking in the end of January 2010. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning All

Off on hols now- will be dropping in though -

As of today 04:30z the best & coldest overnight runs ever modelled since the dawn of the internet with the best highlighted below...

31F0552B-EA20-4D3D-9B36-028655257F20.thumb.png.f56b163b719fc7bb36f5807860cf67e9.png

S

Edited by Steve Murr

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I shuddered just looking at model output this morning, over to ECM think it’s fairly predictable now. 

:cold: 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

Off on hols now- will be dropping in though -

As of today 04:30z the best & coldest overnight runs ever modelled since the dawn of the internet with the best highlighted below...

31F0552B-EA20-4D3D-9B36-028655257F20.thumb.png.f56b163b719fc7bb36f5807860cf67e9.png

S

Enjoy your holiday Steve

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

in deep  shock  bbc  now talking about siberia  winds  with big wind chill and snow and with the gfs going to deep 384 hr!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Speechless. GEM would likely cripple infrastructure and I don’t exaggerate.
As it stands the least-severe result will be temperatures around freezing by day for a few days and some areas getting enough snow to cause disruption to road and rail travel into next week.
The worst-case scenario? Sub-zero maxima with periods of drifting snow and severe frosts. Severe disruption, road travel not possible, power supply issues.
I would be very surprised if advanced warnings were not issued later today or tomorrow morning to start preparing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Tom Jarvis said:

@Steve Murr what are the chances for the south east areas to be placed under an red warning if the current model forecasts come off?

If everything stays the same

Expect the amber warnings up Thurs ish -

Then poss red sat / sun -

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Couldn’t sleep, so had a cup of tea and looked at the models. Just placed grocery order for delivery.... tinned things, candles, bottled water. As soon as my mum is awake I’m going to organise one for her too, she’s almost 70 so I don’t want her worrying about running out of food. 

There, that’s probably jinxed it. 

Although actually despite spending the last ten years desperate for this weather I’m now a bit scared! 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How exciting :) 

It's looks like proper cold is 100% coming next week.

What sort of temperatures are we expecting over night next week in southeast away from London?

This will be a real test for me and my cars, I've converted both my Toyota Hilux and BMW 5 series to run on used cooking oil (cooking oil sets solid around -6c) , I been doing this since 2006 but in 2009-2010 I lived on the coast in Peacehaven East Sussex, so wasn't quite as cold as it could of been. Now I live in Haywards heath which is 15 miles inland and the other side of the south downs, so I expect this next week will be the coldest I've ever had to deal with since running on used cooking oil.

My Hilux has some new aggressive Mud/Snow tyres fitted, so it's ready for this :) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No apologies for posting a 10 day chart, I’m just trying to illustrate how long lasting the cold could be. 

Could be a memorable few weeks. 

387AF231-6808-4258-8308-1EAFEA794885.png

17D88C93-699F-4661-88FB-EEE5A2AFDFAA.png

8B1E03C3-AAC5-4603-8611-6626C74E8630.png

Edited by shotski

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Omg i cant seruously believe what i am seeing its just utter weather porn. This will or at least will make the cabinet and cobra meet. I have been weather watching in earnest for 15 years on here since 2009. Addicted is another word for it. Start warning your elderly loved ones please my mum is 80 amd lives in a flat on top of sanderstead hill. I am going to advise her to fill up her freezer now. You may call it sensationalistic but this will last longer than 1991.

Yes this is a total ramp but i can see no back down on the models for the last 6 days 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

Omg i cant seruously believe what i am seeing its just utter weather porn. This will or at least will make the cabinet and cobra meet. I have been weather watching in earnest for 15 years on here since 2009. Addicted is another word for it. Start warning your elderly loved ones please my mum is 80 amd lives in a flat on top of sanderstead hill. I am going to advise her to fill up her freezer now. You may call it sensationalistic but this will last longer than 1991.

Yes this is a total ramp but i can see no back down on the models for the last 6 days 

Calm down lol, it’s going to get cold, possibly very cold but snow amounts (if any) are far from clear. Some extra essential supplies are a sensible precaution but no need to panic and start filling up freezers, phoning Theresa May, etc. I guess we won’t need our freezers if the charts verify as shown, could just leave everything in the garden!

Edited by stainesbloke

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, smarklew said:

Couldn’t sleep, so had a cup of tea and looked at the models. Just placed grocery order for delivery.... tinned things, candles, bottled water. As soon as my mum is awake I’m going to organise one for her too, she’s almost 70 so I don’t want her worrying about running out of food. 

There, that’s probably jinxed it. 

Although actually despite spending the last ten years desperate for this weather I’m now a bit scared! 

 

Yes, I think you are wise ordering for your Mother.  My husband is a lot older than me... He is seventy as well.  He is poo pooing the thought of any snow and cold and doesn't really follow any weather online.  However I do.  The great thing about Netweather is that it is very informative and in the case of the very severe weather that is possibly coming up enables us to make plans.  I have already made an order for online groceries that is coming Saturday and am planning regarding my sheep and will be putting things in place this week so we are ready for severe weather.  I think Netweather is a great and friendly site.  Best wishes to all its members x

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

Calm down lol, it’s going to get cold, snow amounts (if any) are far from clear. Some extra essential supplies are a sensible precaution but no need to panic and start filling up freezers, etc.

Ok as i said at the end of my post ramp.... but i aint going to tell my 80 yeat oold mum to go shopping in -10 ok decided to water down figure... air over us as mr murr has aluded to there will be ice days. Lets look at the rsmifications of what you just said for an older generation. It will last longer than 1991 and be almost as severe. There is a possible channel low showing along odles of charts showing snow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Preparation depends on where  you live and age.

my Dad whose 83, and remembers both biggies '47 and 63 has been dismissive of the cold, but he's forgetting he couldn't now dig his car out of snow, or walk safely to shops.Statisically if an elderly person takes a bad fall and injures themselves , they will never recover to the level of mobility they were before.

so if you have an elderly relative or neighbor, please ask if they need anything, offer to pick up shopping or better yet, invite them in for a warm dinner and less worry about keeping there own home warm for a bit.

Roll on the  cold!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As long as it's all out of the way before I start lambing around 12th March I'll be happy!  However I will be making provision for water storage as a minimum. Even feeding double amounts of hay I have enough for 30 days from the beginning of next week...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...