SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Hotspur62]

Flippin Heck Tucker!! Just got home from work(rained off) and thought i would go into MOD Thread to browse through latest GFS run.I thought last nights ECM run could not be beaten but this run has trumped that and cold all way though till 8th March with many many snow events possible.So difficult not to get carried away but the "big Kid" in me is really starting to get excited as this has the POTENTIAL to be a one in 20/30 year event for us in the SE!!I just hope the runs keep on showing consistently what they have over last 36hrs by this Thurs/Friday and we could be in business!!The problem with snow is it is a case of almost nowcast but we could't be in a better position for this to come off.Will be interesting to see when Met Office are confident to put out warnings as they are in a lose lose situation in cases like this.

Exciting times,the best since infamous December 2010 for us down in SE Thread!!

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, username home said:

still won’t see snow in Kingston!!!

do you need a kingston streamer for that?

[snowblind]

Just checked the BBC forecast online for London. Got a bit of a shock. Coldest days next week are Monday and Wednesday with maxes of 4 with temps slowly rising there after. Only just down to freezing overnight and dry throughout.

Checked Colchester as well and similar except a couple of degrees colder.

I know these are computer generated but seriously what model are they using??? I thought it was the ECM but it can't  be with that. Or is it us and the models we are looking at that are wrong? According to the bbc there is no beast just a soft fluffy kitten that hasn't even got its teeth yet.

[Britneyfan]

BBC weather apps will never display snow symbols until 1 or 2 days before the event! In fact the snow that Essex got in December didn’t appear on bbc app until the night before! It was showing rain! 

However, bbc weather have tweeted about the cold next week, they said snow in the east as early as Monday! 

[Essex Chelle]

32 minutes ago, Southender said:

Detail hard to pin down yet Chelle. But IF and a big IF everything stays as currently modelled, then most if not all of next week will see temps at or below freezing during the day and with it the chance of snow cropping up from showers/streamers or even frontal. It can all still go very Pete Tong and we need to get to at least Thursday/Friday really before we can be assured the "deep" cold is coming. IF we do, then during the weekend and into early next week we can start looking for the snow.

Ok thanks  this is exciting but so bloody bad timing for me. Traveling canvey/Benfleet to Bognor on 2nd (friday).

Edited February 20, 2018 by Essex Chelle

[steveinsussex]

59 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Every run seems to get better and closer!

This is feeling good!

Not so sure about closerkeeps delaying the deep cold ever so slightly and things are still 7/8 days away

 

lots can still go wrong 

[throwoff]

14 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Just checked the BBC forecast online for London. Got a bit of a shock. Coldest days next week are Monday and Wednesday with maxes of 4 with temps slowly rising there after. Only just down to freezing overnight and dry throughout.

Checked Colchester as well and similar except a couple of degrees colder.

I know these are computer generated but seriously what model are they using??? I thought it was the ECM but it can't  be with that. Or is it us and the models we are looking at that are wrong? According to the bbc there is no beast just a soft fluffy kitten that hasn't even got its teeth yet.

The beeb keep it till late to go for cold, I would expect we start to see a change in next weeks forecast as we move into the end of the week.

[KDME]

Taking into account what the models are saying (quite consistently) so far, who is going to say what we are likely to see snow wise from this cold spell in the SE?

1. 1987 equivalent
2. 2010 equivalent
3. Less than the above - cold but drier i.e. - moderate snow.

There is a lot of ramping and excitement (understandably so), difficult to get a real sober perspective.

Thanks, 

[throwoff]

1 minute ago, Weather_Novice said:

Taking into account what the models are saying (quite consistently) so far, who is going to say what we are likely to see snow wise from this cold spell in the SE?

1. 1987 equivalent
2. 2010 equivalent
3. Less than the above - cold but drier i.e. - moderate snow.

There is a lot of ramping and excitement (understandably so), difficult to get a real sober perspective.

Thanks, 

Honestly, we are closer in the models to 2010 type snow than 1987 as far as I can see. The once in 30 years thing that is being thrown around is a huge call to make this early in proceedings. 

With every model agreeing, the OP runs agreeing and even the METO and others starting to make announcements that something is coming I think we can start to relax in terms of 'will the cold arrive'. That part is looking pretty locked on. The snowfall is always a nowcast in the most part. 

I personally think that we are going to see something decent, perhaps not spectacular but certainly some proper lying snow for the first time in a long while. 

[throwoff]

In addition a friend of mine whose wife works for the 999 call centre round here has told him they have asked any 4x4 drivers who are confident to drive in snow to make themselves known in preparation for next week when they may need them to bring staff in. 

Things like this always make me feel confident in something coming, industry and services don't start activating their contingency plans unless they clearly believe something is in the offing.

[yamkin]

Croydon Borough Council's resources surrounding the gritting of A & B routes including certain pavements has been prepped and are all ready to be deployed.

[Southender]

Yeah that's a tough one. More confident that it will be on the 2010 levels in terms of cold. Snow wise, I will pass on that one, too early to call.

What I will say is IF and a big IF we get -15c uppers on a strong E/ENE then we could get some epic convection going....

[KDME]

10 minutes ago, throwoff said:

In addition a friend of mine whose wife works for the 999 call centre round here has told him they have asked any 4x4 drivers who are confident to drive in snow to make themselves known in preparation for next week when they may need them to bring staff in. 

Things like this always make me feel confident in something coming, industry and services don't start activating their contingency plans unless they clearly believe something is in the offing.

There must be confidence there for the emergency services to prepare their contingency plans.  Many of us are getting very excited with the prospect of some freezing weather.  Must be absolute hell for hospitals, ambulance and Paramedic crews!  Trying to get to someone who is in trouble on snow laden roads. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Weather_Novice

[throwoff]

4 minutes ago, Weather_Novice said:

There must be confidence there for the emergency services to prepare their contingency plans.  

100%. 

It is a very interesting development. I know someone high up in Network Rail as well, just waiting to hear if they have started the activate their contingencies.

[Chris101]

Seen a store bought version of this on a lot of U.S and Canada snow videos, so decided to make my own, think i'm being over optimistic lol

 

[throwoff]

Ok just had confirmation, Network rail are having ongoing contingency planning meetings.

[JennyJane1]

Just spoke to my sister about january 1987, she was in her early teens and recalls being sent to the supermarket which was normally a ten minute walk, halfway up the road she didnt think she would make it because it was so difficult to walk with the snow up to her knees.

[seb]

Wow just wow... Latest MetO update:

UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Feb 2018 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2018:

Sunday will be dry but cold for many, with some sunny spells. Snow showers may develop across eastern and southern areas where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through next week it is likely to become even colder with strong easterly winds, bringing an increasing threat of snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east but also perhaps in parts of the south and southwest. The cold weather will continue through the rest of the period, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Mar 2018 to Wednesday 21 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to remain cold or very cold for many with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the country, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March

Edited February 20, 2018 by seb

[SLEETY]

Bbc online forecast next week biting winds frosts,but DRY

How on earth do they come to that conclusion,bitterly cold uppers crossing the relatively warm North Sea and all next week is going be dry.

Lets review that forecast in a weeks time ,because it’s frankly ridiculous 

I’m going to tweet the forecaster ,Susan Powell how she comes to that conclusion .

i tweeted bbc weather see if they reply

Edited February 20, 2018 by SLEETY

[summerplume18]

I take it Cambridge could do quite well snow wise for next week? If the models stay the same that is 

[essex coast matt]

Heard weatherqrest weather company based in Norwich on BBC Suffolk this morning they was very down beat for next week.saying if there's any heavy showers there be north Norfolk northwards due to longer sea track with east winds

[lottiekent]

2 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

I am just not got internet at the new house yet. Can't join in the fun here.

Oh no! Hope your move went ok and you’re back online fully soon. Literally the worst time to be away!

[PLANET THANET]

bbc one weather just now (susan powell) said next week would be bitterly cold but DRY !!!

edit....just noticed that sleety mentioned susans online forecast , be interesting what her answer will be when she tweets 

Edited February 20, 2018 by PLANET THANET

[warrenb]

Just now, PLANET THANET said:

bbc one weather just now (susan powell) said next week would be bitterly cold but DRY !!!

They always say that. About time they learnt really.

[Bobby93]

BBC lunchtime weather had no mention of snow next week, just bitter and dry. Surely that's just wrong.

Edited February 20, 2018 by Bobby93