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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

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34 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

GFS absolutely hammered tonight - I reckon its drunk the bar dry with that run

Not at all so many stonkers in GEFS in fact it’s a little slow in getting cold looking at mean and I thought it was progressive. If GFS is hammered then the whole suite is too. :D 

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1 hour ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Paul what if it isn’t actually drunk and giving us some sober runs!!!!!!!

The 18z is always drunk

Edited by Chris D

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Awesome looking runs for us lot this morning ,the gem would have much of our region buried in snow 

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14 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Awesome looking runs for us lot this morning ,the gem would have much of our region buried in snow 

So would GFS it’s increadible, persistent snowfall starts in our region on Sunday. :yahoo::oops:

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7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

So would GFS it’s increadible, persistent snowfall starts in our region on Sunday. :yahoo::oops:

It would be fantastic- something we'd talk about for years to come - it would go down in snowlore!

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Incredible charts this morning, I don't think I have ever seen such cold charts churned out with consistency like we are seeing. The building blocks for our cold are actually getting going right this minute... 

By Wednesday we begin to drawn in am easterly wind, that is well within the reliable now. Although slack and not very cold we should start to see the odd snow flurry etc in the run up to the weekend. 

By Sunday (some models vary on this bit) very cold air is marching in over us, and this will probably mark the start of the much heavier snow and real cold. 

This bit though is up for debate, if we are still seeing the charts we are seeing now Thursday morning, then we really will be in the money 

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24 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

So would GFS it’s increadible, persistent snowfall starts in our region on Sunday. :yahoo::oops:

yep from about 150 -350 hr just seen the weather on bbc still not going past friday!!

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35 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Awesome looking runs for us lot this morning ,the gem would have much of our region buried in snow 

Indeed, although pure eye candy at the moment.

If the charts still show the same come Thursday/Friday then I shall definitely dust of the sledge. 

As the GEFS show a southward shift sees the core of snowy weather head into France. We don’t want that. 

To add a touch of realism - if anyone needs reminding/shown how we still have plenty of time for this to go belly up. Then breath and say “February 2012” Lol 

Fingers & toes crossed these stunning charts are still there come Friday. Until then... it’s all fun :)

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3 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Indeed, although pure eye candy at the moment.

If the charts still show the same come Thursday/Friday then I shall definitely dust of the sledge. 

As the GEFS show a southward shift sees the core of snowy weather head into France. We don’t want that. 

To add a touch of realism - if anyone needs reminding/shown how we still have plenty of time for this to go belly up. Then breath and say “February 2012” Lol 

Fingers & toes crossed these stunning charts are still there come Friday. Until then... it’s all fun :)

You didn’t check it really did you? Going by CC? :p 

Fab mean for our region, very snowy and notably cold.

B795C19B-75FE-4FA7-A545-84690287258B.thumb.png.f42c49ee73d68356b9ad7ce5cfa8a076.png 

 

Edited by Daniel*

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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You didn’t check it really did you? Going by CC? :p 

Fab mean for our region, very snowy and notably cold.

B795C19B-75FE-4FA7-A545-84690287258B.thumb.png.f42c49ee73d68356b9ad7ce5cfa8a076.png 

 

Lovely chart - 8 days away. 

Well I checked it through CC. It’s irrelevant how I checked it, it shows a push south. 

It’s also good to highlight the possibilities  of how this could go wrong as well as keep posting Narnia charts in fantasy land, to keep the balance. As well as prevent ones sanity from losing it... lol 

 

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Just for fun I just ran the gfs snow risk for the South East and as from next Sunday it shows a week of snow. If that were true the South East will be crippled transport wise which could also mean supplies to shops and supermarkets being compromised. Could this be true?

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Ben i agree witg your caution and realism and i hsve been doing the same believe me and yes its been at fantasy island for what seems like an age. This however has a different feel to it. All the near misses before didnt have an ssw of record breaking preportions. Now i dont kid to know what i am talking about. But the speed and reversal of winds has never been seen before. 

I will hold my breath for one more day but i do believe we are on the cusp of something monumental. 

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ECM delays cold. Cold uppers way out east on this run come Sunday. 

Days 9 onwards will be good no doubt. Surprise surprise....  

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I would agree with you but its not thr form horse on this one the ssw has been interpreted better by exeter. Ukmo has been out on its own for days. 

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I’m doing list of things I need to do before the freeze arrives,all weather related of course :)

Going to wait another 24 hours just in case the ECM is on the correct path,even though it’s been performing rubbish this winter.

Met are still onboard so fingers crossed:)

P.S where  is SM thought he going ballistic with what the models are showing,but he seems to have stopped posting,strange.

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15 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

I’m doing list of things I need to do before the freeze arrives,all weather related of course :)

Going to wait another 24 hours just in case the ECM is on the correct path,even though it’s been performing rubbish this winter.

Met are still onboard so fingers crossed:)

P.S where  is SM thought he going ballistic with what the models are showing,but he seems to have stopped posting,strange.

He’s on a boozy break out of the country.  He still posts on the Mod thread in between rounds. Back on Saturday subject to snow conditions at Gatwick!

mind you, he might be back earlier, he mentioned something about his wallet was getting lighter.

Edited by Sharpedge

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52 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

He’s on a boozy break out of the country.  He still posts on the Mod thread in between rounds. Back on Saturday subject to snow conditions at Gatwick!

mind you, he might be back earlier, he mentioned something about his wallet was getting lighter.

Was last seen checking GFS with the pope:rofl:

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Morning- if you drop into the mod thread..

It doesnt take a genius to work out that the downbeat are from all northern contingents *ecm* - wobble..

However as i have stressed in there 4 some time, in such set up (easterlys) our part of the uk is prone..and benefits  much better than most.

We are well in the game- and others could see see a clearing with a shunt north of heights.

Just to add these are the london latest ens ooz gfs...

And are truly remarkable.....for us.

Cold and potentialy snowy continues to be the theme for our part...... .

MT8_London_ens (6).png

Edited by tight isobar

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9 hours ago, lassie23 said:

how did a seagull make a pigeon:cc_confused:

It didn't Lassie, roflmao, two pigeons made a baby pigeon.You see, when the Daddy pigeon and the Mummy pigeon............:yahoo:

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22 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Morning- if you drop into the mod thread..

It doesnt take a genius to work out that the downbeat are from all northern contingents *ecm* - wobble..

However as i have stressed in there 4 some time, in such set up (easterlys) our part of the uk is prone..and benefits  much better than most.

We are well in the game- and others could see see a clearing with a shunt north of heights.

Just to add these are the london latest ens ooz gfs...

And are truly remarkable.....for us.

Cold and potentialy snowy continues to be the theme for our part...... .

MT8_London_ens (6).png

Glad you posted that tight isobar, it’s getting really tiresome with poster who you assume are knowledgable seem to be trolling.  It’s getting really difficult to decide who is talking straight on the Mod forum.

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@tight isobar that's an interesting point, I'm on a phone and locations don't show on posters.

i know yourself Mr Murr and Dan Smith are from the SE contingent, and of course Mr shortwave Sussex who , as long as snow it to our shores is a true cheerleader.

who else regularly posts in Mod/Mad thread who's from our region?

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1 minute ago, starstream said:

@tight isobar that's an interesting point, I'm on a phone and locations don't show on posters.

i know yourself Mr Murr and Dan Smith are from the SE contingent, and of course Mr shortwave Sussex who , as long as snow it to our shores is a true cheerleader.

who else regularly posts in Mod/Mad thread who's from our region?

Daniel* is a good one, also Mulzy.

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