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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

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3 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

As usual a Day10 chart being over analysed and focussed over on the MAD thread. 10 whole days away..... dear god! 

Whilst turning colder back end of next week looks a very good call - until the fantasy blizzard biting cold charts are pumping out at T72 - I’ve had enough practice and seen it all before to raise excitement.

Chart that’s 10 days away = eye candy - nothing more! 

If it’s there this time next Sunday - I will happily quote this post and admit defeat.

but I bet I won’t have to. 

 

Ben, I totally agree with you mate. I've been a member for a few years now and seen many charts like this before and when day 10 comes boom it's then another 10 days. You will always get members who always think their right lol! If Like you this time next week if we will be in a cold plunge I'll put my hand up say I was wrong but I won't need too. These are just fantasty charts that never come off 

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Building blocks are in place long before day 10 on the ECM,it’s a logical evolution if you follow the run from the start.

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What I love about the current charts is it screams Thames Streamer territory.. Very cold uppers, low heights, convection rate should be decent, somewhere could do very, very well in this. 

Assuming the deeper cold reaches us, of course! I start a driving job tomorrow so this is going to be an absolute nightmare for me, but I also kinda don't mind, I want snow.

Frosts last couple of days/through this week will help prep the ground for settling, too!

Edited by Daniel Smith

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Only 5 days out and we have this on our door step. If your hoping for six foot drifts and sub zero temperatures you may always be disappointed. To me, this looks great. 

571C746F-B104-4053-8FCB-4D1B59C64684.png

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18 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

Thanks, TB, that does help, so a shop run Thursday/Friday if this is still showing by Wednesday

I think it will be a lot clearer exactly whats what by Monday/Tuesday. If we do get the really heavy snow it will go mad in here but most of the population will be oblivious until they see it with their own eyes. But it will be too late, the shelves for things like bread and milk will be empty for those that don't react quickly!:closedeyes:

 

My worry is for Steve M, he could be coming back to a country in chaos next Saturday, snow at the Airport, food shortages, roads blocked by heavy snowfall.:unsure2:

Edited by snowray

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9 minutes ago, snowray said:

I think it will be a lot clearer exactly whats what by Monday/Tuesday. If we do get the really heavy snow it will go mad in here but most of the population will be oblivious until they see it with their own eyes. But it will be too late, the shelves for things like bread and milk will be empty for those that don't react quickly!:closedeyes:

Those who want sliced bread can even go earlier and freeze it in clear plastic bags in four slices, it can then be used straight from the freezer for toast also fresh milk freezes well.

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80-100cm of snow in the SE is farcical at best. That's a couple of times a season dump for high ski resorts.

My head says we should expect obligatory downgrades in the days to come and we end up with a chilly, but mainly dry spell with some snow around. I'd be happy with a decent covering that lasts a couple of days would be good. My heart says bring on the 3 feet of lying snow!

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Just now, JennyJane1 said:

Those who want sliced bread can even go earlier and freeze it in clear plastic bags in four slices, it can then be used straight from the freezer for toast also fresh milk freezes well.

Thats exactly what I do with the bread, great idea, I also have milk in the freezer now, just in case. I mean we won't starve but there is nothing worse than arriving at a supermarket or store and they have run out of the staples, I mean empty shelves can create riots. Remember people have traded their Rolex watches for some bead and milk when times are hard like in war time.

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3 minutes ago, C_Scotty said:

80-100cm of snow in the SE is farcical at best. That's a couple of times a season dump for high ski resorts.

My head says we should expect obligatory downgrades in the days to come and we end up with a chilly, but mainly dry spell with some snow around. I'd be happy with a decent covering that lasts a couple of days would be good. My heart says bring on the 3 feet of lying snow!

Where did 80-100 cm of snow come from ? No model I’ve looked at is showing this. 

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2 minutes ago, C_Scotty said:

80-100cm of snow in the SE is farcical at best. That's a couple of times a season dump for high ski resorts.

My head says we should expect obligatory downgrades in the days to come and we end up with a chilly, but mainly dry spell with some snow around. I'd be happy with a decent covering that lasts a couple of days would be good. My heart says bring on the 3 feet of lying snow!

Yes thats an extreme amount of snow that would break records since records began for the SE of England, but there was talk of this yesterday, Steve M posted about it too.:)

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I've never had issues with a whole loaf of frozen bread, slight prize with a knife and a slice comes off easy enough.

My family freeze milk too, even in the summer :cc_confused: I don't like the taste of defrosted milk for some reason?! Does anyone else notice a difference

Funny how an easterly brings on a food discussion lol

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10 minutes ago, C_Scotty said:

80-100cm of snow in the SE is farcical at best. That's a couple of times a season dump for high ski resorts.

My head says we should expect obligatory downgrades in the days to come and we end up with a chilly, but mainly dry spell with some snow around. I'd be happy with a decent covering that lasts a couple of days would be good. My heart says bring on the 3 feet of lying snow!

IF*** The ECM landed as per 00z today -The uniform totals in the SE would easily top 30cm with the jackpot areas well over 50cm- Elevated North downs could take a stab @100cm

But this will only happen in a clean easterly - 

ECM has -17c air over +7c water = 24c thermal gradient & very very low heights

its essentially lake effect snow. It would be a once in a 50 year event

( rem southend had 70cm of snow is 87 )

more realistically though if it doesnt come in clean with the odd blocking shortwave then yes usual low amount will be the order of the day- only the extreme end of the cone of probability is the clean perfect outcome...

Edited by Steve Murr

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1 minute ago, The East has Ceased said:

I've never had issues with a whole loaf of frozen bread, slight prize with a knife and a slice comes off easy enough.

My family freeze milk too, even in the summer :cc_confused: I don't like the taste of defrosted milk for some reason?! Does anyone else notice a difference

Funny how an easterly brings on a food discussion lol

see, i would have to freeze it in fewer slices because i would probably cut myself with the knife, being very clumsy. never noticed that defrosted milk tastes different, i just shake it.other things to stock up on - stock cubes and vegetables and stew meat

toilet rolls and washing up liquid

pet food

tea/coffee/hot chocolate

cans of soup

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2 minutes ago, The East has Ceased said:

I've never had issues with a whole loaf of frozen bread, slight prize with a knife and a slice comes off easy enough.

My family freeze milk too, even in the summer :cc_confused: I don't like the taste of defrosted milk for some reason?! Does anyone else notice a difference

Funny how an easterly brings on a food discussion lol

No I have found frozen milk to be ok, I don't freeze much, just enough to keep me going if I'm not in the mood to go shopping. As far as bread is concerned, I used to chuck so much old bread out because it became stale, but now I buy good quality bread and freeze half straight away, got a slicer here so always make sure you have cut it into slices first. 

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56 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

As usual a Day10 chart being over analysed and focussed over on the MAD thread. 10 whole days away..... dear god! 

Whilst turning colder back end of next week looks a very good call - until the fantasy blizzard biting cold charts are pumping out at T72 - I’ve had enough practice and seen it all before to raise excitement.

Chart that’s 10 days away = eye candy - nothing more! 

If it’s there this time next Sunday - I will happily quote this post and admit defeat.

but I bet I won’t have to. 

 

Just 6-8 days now depending on your choice of poison. :p

I think we will see an event which we haven't seen in a long time at least in terms of how widespread the affected areas will be.

Personally I think the ECM suite looks a decent call woth deeper cold arrive by the end of next weekend. Ice days will be possible (especially if we get a decent amount of snow).

No point guess snow amounts, but enough to be disruptive would be a gopd guess.

Okay 10cm at low levels widely perhaps. Or at least as much as I would feel necessary. Monster totals (1ft+) would be more of an inconvenience than anything else and I think others may jse stronger language. However this time I think we should be at least prepared for a major snow event.

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

IF*** The ECM landed as per 00z today -The uniform totals in the SE would easily top 30cm with the jackpot areas well over 50cm- Elevated North downs could take a stab @100cm

But this will only happen in a clean easterly - 

ECM has -17c air over +7c water = 24c thermal gradient & very very low heights

its essentially lake effect snow. It would be a once in a 50 year event

more realistically though if it doesnt come in clean with the odd blocking shortwave then yes usual low amount will be the order of the day- only the extreme end of the cone of probability is the clean perfect outcome...

There you got, from the horses mouth. No one said it will happen for sure, but there is potential for these amounts.

Hope you had a good night Steve and your not too hung over.:D

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7 minutes ago, snowray said:

There you got, from the horses mouth. No one said it will happen for sure, but there is potential for these amounts.

Hope you had a good night Steve and your not too hung over.:D

A bit messy- happy hour on pitchers of cocktails is never going to end well, my wallet started of ok - now if I threw it out of the window it would float down...

Anyway...

Official depths was west malling 52cm however thats to far away into main kent - High up & further east was more

2CD6C6C4-7198-4C37-9D5B-427ECF4D7D4D.thumb.png.33a56a0819f65ffb492da622d079f455.png

Anyway - lets actually get the cold here first & worry about probability of snow & depths afted- Thats all dreamland stuff !!

Most would be glad of a dusting but seeing as the SSW is record breaking then lets utilise it as best as possible...

** Also just to add 1991 in lowly Eltham we had just over 30cm of snow - so places like bluebell hill would have easily been double that..

Edited by Steve Murr

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87 gave 2 ft of level snow at heybridge Essex , and the sea froze.

Schools shut for a week, I always remember the BBC had a mini series called "Anzacs "on telly box , shown in the afternoons. 

Dad was off work ( teacher) so we all watched it as there was nothing else to do.

surprisingly, I don't remember the power going off, but that would be my only concern if we got a significant Cold event now, severely autistic son would struggle without the computer .

 

 

 

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I had just started work in 1987 at the Kennel Club in Mayfair and my boss was from near Maidstone, West Malling rings a bell, he never came to work for a few days was completely snowed in. When he came back to work he said that he could not see over the snow at the back of his house where I presume it had drifted. I remember that he was a rather short man though.

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2 minutes ago, starstream said:

87 gave 2 ft of level snow at heybridge Essex , and the sea froze.

Schools shut for a week, I always remember the BBC had a mini series called "Anzacs "on telly box , shown in the afternoons. 

Dad was off work ( teacher) so we all watched it as there was nothing else to do.

surprisingly, I don't remember the power going off, but that would be my only concern if we got a significant Cold event now, severely autistic son would struggle without the computer .

 

 

 

dont know if you could get a small tablet and then there are chargers which run on batteries, i have one, dont know how practical it would be for a week, but its something.

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22 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Just 6-8 days now depending on your choice of poison. :p

I think we will see an event which we haven't seen in a long time at least in terms of how widespread the affected areas will be.

Personally I think the ECM suite looks a decent call woth deeper cold arrive by the end of next weekend. Ice days will be possible (especially if we get a decent amount of snow).

No point guess snow amounts, but enough to be disruptive would be a gopd guess.

Okay 10cm at low levels widely perhaps. Or at least as much as I would feel necessary. Monster totals (1ft+) would be more of an inconvenience than anything else and I think others may jse stronger language. However this time I think we should be at least prepared for a major snow event.

I’m talking at that ECM chart that’s 10 days away dated Wednesday 28th February - I agree it looks to turn colder by day 5/6 with (hopefully) easterly winds setting in. 

Until any major snow event is modelled within T48 then I just can’t get excited CS.

I really hope your right and we do get a major event, I’m just keeping my feet firmly on ground that’s all. 

Today is 18th February- which means a life time between now and these fantasy charts to go belly up with shortwaves and not mention the HP block being modelled to far north to allow the Atlantic in. 

It can all go right of course, but boy... can it still all go wrong.

*lets get the cold in first before worrying if we need to freeze bread. LOL 

 

Edited by Ben Lewis

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4 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

dont know if you could get a small tablet and then there are chargers which run on batteries, i have one, dont know how practical it would be for a week, but its something.

Unfortunately not, he's 22 and very LD as well, he doesn't understand why it wouldn't work.

tablets get thrown ,RIP many an iPad!

usually with power outages we go for a drive to get away till it comes back on . But we shall manage .

 

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So the starting pistol fires Weds (t78) as the -6c line hits the SE -

4D502299-B8DF-4505-9622-CCEE9F3CC302.thumb.png.2ec97f9e76cff1194efc211ad2e328be.png

Give it a day to mix through the layers & maxes thurs we be down to about 3-4c then Friday be another degree off that...

Edited by Steve Murr

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