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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

if  the gfs  is right !!  the fun start on are shores from 168 hr onwards  now

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=2

gfs-2-168.png

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Posted
  • Location: Strood , Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summers & Mild Winters
  • Location: Strood , Kent
8 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

that's the downside of having snow.. having to commute to work:closedeyes:

I can foresee a lot of folks with rear wheel drive getting stranded

Spare a thought for those like myself who drive for a living.  It's not just getting to work , it's then having to go back out in a rear wheel drive van.  

Also i got accepted in the ballot for Ride London 100 for this year so i was hoping to start my training in earnest at the beginning of March.  Might have to be the indoor trainer for a few more weeks.  lol 

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Posted
  • Location: Home = Haywards Heath. Work = Burgess Hill
  • Weather Preferences: snow, storms or both at same time..
  • Location: Home = Haywards Heath. Work = Burgess Hill

I have often wondered what would happen now days, if we had a period of cold like the winter of 63.

Much has changed since then with the way people live their life's, back then most people lived and worked in same area, family close by etc. closer community. now days people often have large distances to travel to work, more chance that families have distance between them, I guess due to the rise of the car over many decades has lead to this.

Then you have the difference in the way houses are built and heated now days, back in 1963 not many houses were fitted with boilers for heating (if any really) heating usually came from fireplaces, coal would be bought in advance of winter so you knew you would have heating.

Hardly any houses built since the 70s and 80s have fire places, with gas fired central heating being the only heat source in many houses. I can imagine a scenario one day where Europe gets a very cold spell that hits the UK, and everyone using more gas and we run out! we used to have massive gas storage tanks dotted about the country with gas reserves that could last a winter, most of them have been got rid of over the last few decades (often for more housing) 

Where I live in southeast has loads of new housing estates going up, or already finished in last few years, they just keep adding them on the already existing services like water and gas, one day all this could cause a problem if we get that crazy cold spell that lasts a couple of weeks or more with ice days and blizzards etc.

In a modern house with just a gas fired boiler and radiators, all it takes for you to lose 100% of your heating is either no gas or no of electric, in a power cut the boiler cant run as it needs electric to run its pump plus its controls and thermostat etc.

Are food networks are also different to 1963, now days most the population is feed via supermarkets, which rely on lorries driving hundreds of miles every day to keep them filled up with food. it doesn't take much snow to stop a lorry getting where it was going.

I feel it is amazing we got away with it for so long, but one day a harsh winter will hit us in the UK and we will really struggle more than we did in the past.

I'm up for it though, bring it on :) But I do have a generator with around 3000 litres of fuel, and i lovely fireplace including one in the bedroom.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
13 minutes ago, LJS22 said:

Spare a thought for those like myself who drive for a living.  It's not just getting to work , it's then having to go back out in a rear wheel drive van.  

Also i got accepted in the ballot for Ride London 100 for this year so i was hoping to start my training in earnest at the beginning of March.  Might have to be the indoor trainer for a few more weeks.  lol 

I didn't know whether to laugh or cry at your post, so I just liked it..

They have Mercedes vans at my work place and they're all rwd :blink2:

I work in distribution myself but I only have to commute to work as I'm the forklift driver that has to unload the lorries and plan the delivery routes.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

This is a 1st, never seen a London mean on the ensembles at D8 as low as -10c, must be as rare as white flies that.:cold:

graphe_ens3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=192&carte=&mode

on here its  192  hr onwards  up,to 384  at the  moment  if some of them come off some parts will get cut off!!

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
2 hours ago, E17boy said:

Good morning all hope you all are are ok ?. Lovely start to the day here in Walthamstow was frosty though. Looks like it's going to be like one of those spring days for now. 

I am excited ? but trying to take things with caution as well hope everything goes to plan next week. 

Anyway my only day off today so will have a chance to enjoy bit of the sun. 

Hope you have a wonderful day all

speaks soon ????

You only get one day off in a week?!.. I have to give you props for that because I think I'd be depressed :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
1 hour ago, The East has Ceased said:

Yikes, what are those purple temperatures? overnight lows or windchills :shok: :cold:

If that forecast was on the money that would be the lowest Temperature, although the feels like is actually warmer.

 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

171E97DA-E5BA-4C46-8EAE-9DF6E5440238.thumb.png.f85699c1e23193a3d79352e27811aba0.png

I am am starting to sit up and take notice of what the models are starting to show now. I have model watching and lurking on here for more than 10 years and I love it, even when it all goes wrong (a bit odd I know). ?There have been some epic climb downs, particularly in the last 5 years or so, by the models there ain’t one of them that is perfect!???

The image above is about as strong a signal for cold as we will ever see for London. Like other members have alluded to this, if modelled correctly, is likely to be longer lasting than the February 2009 event which only had -10 850’s over us for about 24 hours. For me this is was the best snow on the ground event in zone 1 since 1990-1991. 

Might seem a bit IMBY this post, even though this winter I have seen snow on 10th December in Buckinghamshire when we almost got stranded.

C4E21F17-4B06-4DCB-9BC9-109A8BA047D3.thumb.jpeg.a81676a0241c62fae3835e64aa0c6b93.jpeg

 

And more recently on the 6th of February whilst visiting family in Scotland with snow covering the majestic and beautiful Ochil Hills.

89D35CC0-EB8C-49A4-8807-1FDE3040891C.thumb.jpeg.01727c2eb8beae05e772684246d63408.jpeg

41C8136C-E5DE-428D-829F-FC2915B939D1.thumb.jpeg.cd6a8ff4dfa635e0a1e14e4a4577ee96.jpeg

A8C2C9F1-5946-42FF-A6F6-76C0B5EAE05F.thumb.jpeg.ca3f4b6c80da6bbe623ae39c8cc977a3.jpeg41C8136C-E5DE-428D-829F-FC2915B939D1.thumb.jpeg.cd6a8ff4dfa635e0a1e14e4a4577ee96.jpeg

I really want this to come off for us snow starved Londoners, the children of zone 1 should get to build snowmen too ❄️☃️❄️☃️❄️☃️❄️☃️ Cross everything ??

3D564234-D75F-4D76-82CE-B3DED5F4FAC3.png

9921C02F-EC83-4ECE-AB84-7EE719C37A36.jpeg

Edited by David P
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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk

Is anyone like me and finding it hard to believe that this time next weekend/start of the new week. We could be in the grip of one hell of a freeze.

We've had so many disappointments over the past few years, that you just feel cautious about believing anything you see on the models. Don't get me wrong I want this cold spell as much as anyone as it looks like a proper epic cold spell.

Just after all the disappointments recently I can't get excited. I know this protracted spell is different with the SSW etc, so hopefully we're truly on the cusp of something special this time with no sudden downgrades. 

The Beast From the East has been a long time coming, let's hope this one truly delivers!

Edited by Bobby93
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

i'm going to hold off until thursday before frightening all the relatives with talk of a deep freeze, but i've already started panic buying sardines:oops:

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Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
2 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

 

Still got this week to get through, one where getting to work will be simple. Next week though i am already starting to prepare for that eventuality.

Serious question, I am meant to be going from Great Yarmouth to Norwich then to Doncaster by train on 2nd March and coming back two days later, am I likely to get there in the first place, and if i do, am i likely to get stranded up there?:cold::cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow events / Wind storms
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

i'm going to hold off until thursday before frightening all the relatives with talk of a deep freeze, but i've already started panic buying sardines:oops:

You better hope the easterly comes off then! Otherwise Chloe will go bang lol

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Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
1 hour ago, claret047 said:

 By the time the censors had activated the central heating systems the water in radiators had frozen solid. The result was a lot of burst radiators and pipework. There was several million pounds worth of associated damage ranging from collapsed ceiling, damaged electrics and flooring including laminate gymnasium flooring that started to lift.

An expensive failure with the benefit of hindsight.

Kind Regards

Dave

I shall be sure to have the pipes on low before the freeze in case of problems.

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow events / Wind storms
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
1 minute ago, JennyJane1 said:

Serious question, I am meant to be going from Great Yarmouth to Norwich then to Doncaster by train on 2nd March and coming back two days later, am I likely to get there in the first place, and if i do, am i likely to get stranded up there?:cold::cold:

No way to tell this far out, it's 12 days away, even the captains crystal ball isn't that good! :rofl: It'll likely be cold, nobody knows how cold, but best to view the charts 1 or 2 days before to see any potential snowfall

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Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day

This is cold heaven, x rated charts. See i couldnt keep away. Interesting still modelled for heavy snow 2nd march but the freezer will already be here by now lol. 

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1 hour ago, D.V.R said:

You only get one day off in a week?!.. I have to give you props for that because I think I'd be depressed :good:

? thankyou but it keeps me busy and I have a different Sarurday job so it does change from the office scenery ?.

anyway like a lot of us on here I am so so tence and sitting at the edge of my seat please please if we can just manage to get through the next 4 days without the models reversing I will be so happy. I tell you I haven't been on this forum for long but I can feel the tease of it.

fingers crossed hope it stays as it is except upgrades ?. 

All the best people we are in this together let's hope it ends with joy. 

Kind regards 

????

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
19 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

Serious question, I am meant to be going from Great Yarmouth to Norwich then to Doncaster by train on 2nd March and coming back two days later, am I likely to get there in the first place, and if i do, am i likely to get stranded up there?:cold::cold:

In an ideal world there could be a foot of snow and the trains would run. Unfortunately this is the UK where a couple of leaves lead to train cancellations. 

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Posted
  • Location: essex/suffolk/cambs border
  • Location: essex/suffolk/cambs border
56 minutes ago, David P said:

171E97DA-E5BA-4C46-8EAE-9DF6E5440238.thumb.png.f85699c1e23193a3d79352e27811aba0.png

I am am starting to sit up and take notice of what the models are starting to show now. I have model watching and lurking on here for more than 10 years and I love it, even when it all goes wrong (a bit odd I know). ?There have been some epic climb downs, particularly in the last 5 years or so, by the models there ain’t one of them that is perfect!???

The image above is about as strong a signal for cold as we will ever see for London. Like other members have alluded to this, if modelled correctly, is likely to be longer lasting than the February 2009 event which only had -10 850’s over us for about 24 hours. For me this is was the best snow on the ground event in zone 1 since 1990-1991. 

Might seem a bit IMBY this post, even though this winter I have seen snow on 10th December in Buckinghamshire when we almost got stranded.

C4E21F17-4B06-4DCB-9BC9-109A8BA047D3.thumb.jpeg.a81676a0241c62fae3835e64aa0c6b93.jpeg

 

And more recently on the 6th of February whilst visiting family in Scotland with snow covering the majestic and beautiful Ochil Hills.

89D35CC0-EB8C-49A4-8807-1FDE3040891C.thumb.jpeg.01727c2eb8beae05e772684246d63408.jpeg

41C8136C-E5DE-428D-829F-FC2915B939D1.thumb.jpeg.cd6a8ff4dfa635e0a1e14e4a4577ee96.jpeg

A8C2C9F1-5946-42FF-A6F6-76C0B5EAE05F.thumb.jpeg.ca3f4b6c80da6bbe623ae39c8cc977a3.jpeg41C8136C-E5DE-428D-829F-FC2915B939D1.thumb.jpeg.cd6a8ff4dfa635e0a1e14e4a4577ee96.jpeg

I really want this to come off for us snow starved Londoners, the children of zone 1 should get to build snowmen too ❄️☃️❄️☃️❄️☃️❄️☃️ Cross everything ??

3D564234-D75F-4D76-82CE-B3DED5F4FAC3.png

9921C02F-EC83-4ECE-AB84-7EE719C37A36.jpeg

Unfortunately with the forecast Temps and continental dry air, Snowman building will be difficult. Dry, Powder Snow. Kills off Trains pretty fast if I remember correctly. The wrong kind of Snow :)

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

In an ideal world there could be a foot of snow and the trains would run. Unfortunately this is the UK where a couple of leaves lead to train cancellations. 

Surely all they need to do is fit some ploughs to the front of the trains and drive them along the track early in the morning, how hard is it?

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

I didn’t want to come home stopped at Ashford at designer outlet got some good bits, weather is pants today but was lovely Friday & Saturday really nice went on for a scenic walk in Hastings County Park yesterday barely a bit of wind although it was chilly... looks great from up there as always, annoyingly no pics, if you can’t have snow I’ll have that.

AB532667-5625-41B8-8B91-66935B43093B.thumb.jpeg.533cc5a7a9c9302b4edeef6b2af699e0.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
2 hours ago, DonnaThw said:

Well my husband is trying t break his record for the earliest bbq of the year. We will see how that goes. It is a beautiful day though.

im trying very hard to keep calm about the next few weeks. We were in the same position a few weeks ago and nothing came of that. I even got my extra gas bottle:rofl: 

if this easterly does decide to play ball  how bad could this get (really) sensible answers only please.:D just posted about the meto forecast this is netweather future forecastF82E989E-8A51-470D-97E7-856635487EC9.thumb.png.b9fc8371c32d3aafc154b3187e474259.png

To far away yet,I still remember the failed easterly from a few years back,even at t48 it was nailed,only to disappear quicker than my brother when it was his round,a long way to go in weather terms,and after so many walks up the garden path,I refuse to allow myself to get to excited just yet,but secretly I would love it if it came off,long overdue

Edited by snowrye
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4 minutes ago, snowrye said:

To far away yet,I still remember the failed easterly from a few years back,even at t48 it was nailed,only to disappear quicker than my brother when it was his round,a long way to go in weather terms,and after so many walks up the garden path,I refuse to allow myself to get to excited just yet,but secretly I would love it if it came off,long overdue

Well said I know it's hard to control the excitement and one part of us tends to think if this is about to verify it will be the best ever. Then another part says what if there is a sudden flip all this could be washed away and we would be left thinking only if   

Thats why on my post above I said caution is still needed if we get past the next 4 days without a flip then yeh we are nearly there. It's so tense at the moment and the worst we want to hear from anyone is the word downgrade. 

Having said that things as they stand are looking great for us. 

Keep  up the spirits guys we will get there. 

????

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow events / Wind storms
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
11 minutes ago, Bazray said:

What time are the next charts out please? Is it 3, 6 and 10?

thanks

Next chart will be the GFS 12z which starts rolling at 3:30pm 

00z 3:30am
06z 9:30am
12z 3:30pm
18z 9:30pm

They take about an hour and a half to complete the runs

 

Edited by The East has Ceased
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