Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Christ. Had to actually talk to the missus. Wife: You have been glued to that phone lately, you looking at porn or something? Me: Yes, yes I am... Wife: You dirty b****** what exactly a

Good evening Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently) MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout th

The SE contingent watching the radar about 4pm Sunday

Posted Images

1 minute ago, essexweather said:

Good evening :)

Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently)

MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout the week of a Easterly flow setting in, was a brief wobble over the last couple of days to a more South-Easterly flow but now back to a direct Easterly from around 22nd February (20-30% chance of a day or two earlier)

ECM: Very high probability of much of Europe heading into the freezer next week (90% prob of this) but a couple of shortwaves keep developing from Denmark to Norway next week which either delays the cold further from reaching our shores or in some cases prevents the cold getting further than BeNeLux. Forecaster guideance of 17Z today was 70% chance of the Easterly progressing far enough to affect England. More than a few wobbles this week so there is still no guarantee we will get a bit of the cherry.

The main story from Exeter is, that *if* we do get in on the action next week, this will be a prolonged event lasting well into March with significant impacts on this country.

And just for us regional folk, here are todays 12Z ECM ensembles for Essex (but similar for anywhere in SE/EA to be honest)

-----------

2m temperaure

temperature.png

850 temperature

850t.png

Snow depth (not really worth taking notice of at this stage)

snow.png

-----------

Sunday will be another wobble day with the models but you will likely see cross-model agreement start from late Monday and into Tuesday.

Have a great weekend and fingers crossed for next week. Europe really is on the verge of something very special.

Incredible post, thank you for sharing. Always good to get some "inside info" into what the Met are currently thinking.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, essexweather said:

Good evening :)

Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently)

MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout the week of a Easterly flow setting in, was a brief wobble over the last couple of days to a more South-Easterly flow but now back to a direct Easterly from around 22nd February (20-30% chance of a day or two earlier)

ECM: Very high probability of much of Europe heading into the freezer next week (90% prob of this) but a couple of shortwaves keep developing from Denmark to Norway next week which either delays the cold further from reaching our shores or in some cases prevents the cold getting further than BeNeLux. Forecaster guideance of 17Z today was 70% chance of the Easterly progressing far enough to affect England. More than a few wobbles this week so there is still no guarantee we will get a bit of the cherry.

The main story from Exeter is, that *if* we do get in on the action next week, this will be a prolonged event lasting well into March with significant impacts on this country.

And just for us regional folk, here are todays 12Z ECM ensembles for Essex (but similar for anywhere in SE/EA to be honest)

-----------

2m temperaure

temperature.png

850 temperature

850t.png

Snow depth (not really worth taking notice of at this stage)

snow.png

-----------

Sunday will be another wobble day with the models but you will likely see cross-model agreement start from late Monday and into Tuesday.

Have a great weekend and fingers crossed for next week. Europe really is on the verge of something very special.

nice post - I think those reading the Exeter updates put 2 + 2 together based on the bullishness of the literature on there!

Im in agreement with prolonged cold as long as the high retrogrades far enough west - If it does ( assuming day 6 is the start ) the its a +10 day event...

Based on the 00z IKON & ECM - 80-100 cms of snow in the SE - but would only come in a perfect clean flow with sub -14 air...

Edited by Steve Murr
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, essexweather said:

Good evening :)

Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently)

MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout the week of a Easterly flow setting in, was a brief wobble over the last couple of days to a more South-Easterly flow but now back to a direct Easterly from around 22nd February (20-30% chance of a day or two earlier)

ECM: Very high probability of much of Europe heading into the freezer next week (90% prob of this) but a couple of shortwaves keep developing from Denmark to Norway next week which either delays the cold further from reaching our shores or in some cases prevents the cold getting further than BeNeLux. Forecaster guideance of 17Z today was 70% chance of the Easterly progressing far enough to affect England. More than a few wobbles this week so there is still no guarantee we will get a bit of the cherry.

The main story from Exeter is, that *if* we do get in on the action next week, this will be a prolonged event lasting well into March with significant impacts on this country.

And just for us regional folk, here are todays 12Z ECM ensembles for Essex (but similar for anywhere in SE/EA to be honest)

-----------

2m temperaure

temperature.png

850 temperature

850t.png

Snow depth (not really worth taking notice of at this stage)

snow.png

-----------

Sunday will be another wobble day with the models but you will likely see cross-model agreement start from late Monday and into Tuesday.

Have a great weekend and fingers crossed for next week. Europe really is on the verge of something very special.

Thank you - very good info.

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

nice post - I think those reading the Exeter updates put 2 + 2 together based on the bullishness of the literature on there!

Im in agreement with prolonged cold as long as the high retrogrades far enough west - If it does ( assuming day 6 is the start ) the its a +10 day event...

Based on the 00z IKON & ECM - 80-100 cms of snow in the SE - but would only come in a perfect clean flow with sub -14 air...

That must be as almost much snow as I've seen throughout my entire lifetime! What's the betting on whether it'll verify - 100 nanometres doesn't count...:D

Link to post
Share on other sites

Cloudless skies, no wind and relatively strong sunshine here all day with a max of 10.7c. It felt warm in the sun.

The seafront was packed with folk making the most of it and it felt much more like Spring than Winter.

As much as I like the occasional snowfall to add a bit of variety to the weather, I can't say I'm looking forward to it as we head towards and into March. Winter had it's chance. B)

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Standard of post must have gone up in SE thread...56 members viewing...we were talking about rats 30 mins ago:sorry:...think there was 5 here

5 Rats or posters ?

I’m still busy looking for the beast from the east we had back in 2012. 

Edited by shotski
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, essexweather said:

Good evening :)

Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently)

MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout the week of a Easterly flow setting in, was a brief wobble over the last couple of days to a more South-Easterly flow but now back to a direct Easterly from around 22nd February (20-30% chance of a day or two earlier)

ECM: Very high probability of much of Europe heading into the freezer next week (90% prob of this) but a couple of shortwaves keep developing from Denmark to Norway next week which either delays the cold further from reaching our shores or in some cases prevents the cold getting further than BeNeLux. Forecaster guideance of 17Z today was 70% chance of the Easterly progressing far enough to affect England. More than a few wobbles this week so there is still no guarantee we will get a bit of the cherry.

The main story from Exeter is, that *if* we do get in on the action next week, this will be a prolonged event lasting well into March with significant impacts on this country.

And just for us regional folk, here are todays 12Z ECM ensembles for Essex (but similar for anywhere in SE/EA to be honest)

-----------

2m temperaure

temperature.png

850 temperature

850t.png

Snow depth (not really worth taking notice of at this stage)

snow.png

-----------

Sunday will be another wobble day with the models but you will likely see cross-model agreement start from late Monday and into Tuesday.

Have a great weekend and fingers crossed for next week. Europe really is on the verge of something very special.

Great stuff, thanks. Potential Scandinavian shortwaves always give me the heebies in these set-ups. Classic spoilers. Looks good this time though. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Standard of post must have gone up in SE thread...56 members viewing...we were talking about rats 30 mins ago:sorry:...think there was 5 here

Won't be long before you go to check the lampost, come back and see 5 new pages:rofl:

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That must be as almost much snow as I've seen throughout my entire lifetime! What's the betting on whether it'll verify - 100 nanometres doesn't count...:D

and in the triangle? or like december 2010, everywhere else except here? mind you, i have to travel at the end of feb so if i dont get snowed in before i start out i expect i'll see some snow on my travels.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

and in the triangle? or like december 2010, everywhere else except here? mind you, i have to travel at the end of feb so if i dont get snowed in before i start out i expect i'll see some snow on my travels.

Funny you should mention The Triangle, JJ...I've just been perusing the BBC's wonderful new 14-dayer for Norwich...And not one day will be colder than +5C...?:shok:

Maybe they're getting live updates from the CFS?:D

Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's have a Saturday night sing song.  From Annie, albeit slightly adapted to suit:

"Tomorrow (+9)

Tomorrow (+9)

I love you, tomorrow (+9)

You're always a day (+9) away"

(repeat ad nauseam until late April)

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

It is always these short waves that scupper the easterly as it gets into the reliable time frame  and  Europe end up in the freezer with plenty of snow while the British isles gets the dregs. So to me this will go the same way  met o model good out to 3 days ecm out to 5 days  that’s how the met o rate these two models. 

‘So as ecm is showing short waves between Denmark and Norway this coming week Garden path comes to mind. And another huge let down of something that could have been epic. It seems no matter how much we have in our favour there’s always something to come along and jaffa cakes on our chips. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Call me a jinx but I see a sense of inevitability about it all. D10 mean from ECM support for the beast into Europe !

363AE64B-6D8D-41BB-AC96-101D3408F81B.thumb.gif.e9ab00bbdc5023cfec321e4d1fbf5369.gif

And this was before the 18z. :rofl:

Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Sweetdream said:

It is always these short waves that scupper the easterly as it gets into the reliable time frame  and  Europe end up in the freezer with plenty of snow while the British isles gets the dregs. So to me this will go the same way  met o model good out to 3 days ecm out to 5 days  that’s how the met o rate these two models. 

‘So as ecm is showing short waves between Denmark and Norway this coming week Garden path comes to mind. And another huge let down of something that could have been epic. It seems no matter how much we have in our favour there’s always something to come along and jaffa cakes on our chips. 

Yeah, disappointing tbf. 

E5C1CD97-D88B-4EBF-B7EB-CB78A2ADA7F9.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...