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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


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10 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Possible Thames Streamer totals Monday evening > Tuesday

5a92b8b4a2f4a_1DayOutlook.thumb.png.8d01b0a74fc8ae282c834972018029ca.png

I'd extend the yellow section decent further west to the south of the thames, as the wind direction will remain true ENE till about 03z Tuesday, then focus will shift towards your main area you are showing at the moment.

Worth noting this is heavily dependent on the exact track of the shortwave, these is good agreement here butI've seen these features throw surprises at veryshort range before and that would have a direct impact on the wind flow.

Wind will shift back ENE late Tuesday sofocus shifts back westwards somewhat before briefly bending ESE Wednesday afternoon, though instablity will be decreasing by that point.

Edited by kold weather
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Good evening Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently) MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout th

The SE contingent watching the radar about 4pm Sunday

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Another Friday post - soz :oops:I'm probably looking at the wrong one, but the 6-30 day long range text forecast from the MET Office that I can see on their website, doesn't mention milder/less cold air getting into our region at all? (1st - 10th March) just talk of 'heavy' and 'disruptive' snow on Friday, and thereafter 'likely to remain very cold through early March, with further snow showers in the east and southeast' ??

Edited by Ben Blizzard
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The way some are talking, you’d think the snow will simply just end at the edge of the amber zone! It’s a very rough guide and will change. I’m sure most of Essex will get a good dumping.

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It all kicks off in about 6 hours. Countdown time. Tbh, in reality, I think most people will be sick of snow and freezing cold by the end of the week, and welcome some less cold conditions. Apologies to those who are perhaps not in the so called sweet spots

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The Met Office Amber warnings tie in quite well with the greatest accumulations on the 00z EC snowfall accumulations by Weds.

Amber.thumb.JPG.3f50a283f164d7ac7b6d49b8734c10fe.JPGFCDF2AE9-108D-4E8A-857D-ECBCAA37D7D6.png.913df23e4a8903e304031ad948bf3813.thumb.png.0d9bed1c2769da0b213d6b28bb105782.png

SE25 where I live right on the edge of the Amber, so be interesting to see if the streamer of heaviest snow showers moves a little further N, potential the amber maybe expanded nearer the time. Though I will be working at Heathrow in the afternoon and evening - where it will probably be less snowy.

SE Essex, N and W Kent, parts of SE London and down into north E Sussex looking the sweet spots

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1 hour ago, Snowy Bob said:

Morning from the Costa Del Folky.

I jest, but I do wonder whether we're going to be as affected down here in South Kent as some of our northern and western cousins?

Looking at the charts for tonight thru to Wednesday - seems to me that its going to be a bun fight to see any significant accumulations south-east of say Ashford and Canterbury.

Hope you're wrong, but I think you're probably right (shame though)

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I really think those outside the zones not worry, it looks like its bands of showers North to South that sweep across the area into organised lines, obviously they lose some power the further west you go, I still think everyone will do well out of this, then the plus side of the potential blizzard hitting your areas harder than areas further to the east of our area. The weather has an amazing way of balancing things out

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2 hours ago, leemondo said:

I will conider this a massive fail if I can still see the kerbs on Wednesday :)

I will give this a massive fail if I can still see my sheep Wednesday ????

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3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The Met Office Amber warnings tie in quite well with the greatest accumulations on the 00z EC snowfall accumulations by Weds.

Amber.thumb.JPG.3f50a283f164d7ac7b6d49b8734c10fe.JPGFCDF2AE9-108D-4E8A-857D-ECBCAA37D7D6.png.913df23e4a8903e304031ad948bf3813.thumb.png.0d9bed1c2769da0b213d6b28bb105782.png

SE25 where I live right on the edge of the Amber, so be interesting to see if the streamer of heaviest snow showers moves a little further N, potential the amber maybe expanded nearer the time. Though I will be working at Heathrow in the afternoon and evening - where it will probably be less snowy.

SE Essex, N and W Kent, parts of SE London and down into north E Sussex looking the sweet spots

Is the amber warning more for a mid Kent streamer or a Thames streamer set up?  

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21 minutes ago, Delka said:

freezing rain is rain, but the ground temperature is still freezing so it hits the surface and turns into ice, making everything turn into a giant ice rink. very disruptive and dangerous, they get some almighty ones in America!

Nope. Freezing rain is in fact supercooled rain (i.e. still liquid below zero, not having had time to refreeze into an ice pellet). It turns to ice on hitting anything, whether that surface is below zero or not.

 

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7 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:

Another Friday post - soz :oops:I'm probably looking at the wrong one, but the 6-30 day long range text forecast from the MET Office that I can see on their website, doesn't mention milder/less cold air getting into our region at all? (1st - 10th March) just talk of 'heavy' and 'disruptive' snow on Friday, and thereafter 'likely to remain very cold through early March, with further snow showers in the east and southeast' ??

That was yesterday’s, it has changed today.

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14 minutes ago, Delka said:

not a common event in the UK at all, if you google image search USA ice storms there's some good pictures of the damage it does over there, but when it occurs here it's a much more toned down version to any of those pictures

Can remember it happening once while driving. All the cars had to stop where they were. When I tried to get out of the car, I slipped and had to hold on to it to stop myself falling over! It was like an ice rink; very dangerous.

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7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The Met Office Amber warnings tie in quite well with the greatest accumulations on the 00z EC snowfall accumulations by Weds.

Amber.thumb.JPG.3f50a283f164d7ac7b6d49b8734c10fe.JPGFCDF2AE9-108D-4E8A-857D-ECBCAA37D7D6.png.913df23e4a8903e304031ad948bf3813.thumb.png.0d9bed1c2769da0b213d6b28bb105782.png

SE25 where I live right on the edge of the Amber, so be interesting to see if the streamer of heaviest snow showers moves a little further N, potential the amber maybe expanded nearer the time. Though I will be working at Heathrow in the afternoon and evening - where it will probably be less snowy.

SE Essex, N and W Kent, parts of SE London and down into north E Sussex looking the sweet spots

Loving that ??❄️?

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6 minutes ago, Roy said:

It all kicks off in about 6 hours. Countdown time. Tbh, in reality, I think most people will be sick of snow and freezing cold by the end of the week, and welcome some less cold conditions. Apologies to those who are perhaps not in the so called sweet spots

After I have my bath this evening, it'll be about 8pm, so in about 6 hours time, so i'll grab a hot chocolate and go and lamppost watch till bedtime.Although if it does stat snowing, bedtime will be delayed.

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What ever happens over the next few days, firstly people should keep safe and look in on their elderly neighbours . Also check the anti freeze in your car and check that you have appropriate washer solution or it will just freeze on your windscreen. Anything that drops out the sky from mid Monday until late Friday will be snow. How often have we been able to say that. Local events ie streamers, etc are almost impossible to forecast, so I would just watch the window and radar, have fun if you enjoy snow, turn up the heating if you don't.

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10 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I really think those outside the zones not worry, it looks like its bands of showers North to South that sweep across the area into organised lines, obviously they lose some power the further west you go, I still think everyone will do well out of this, then the plus side of the potential blizzard hitting your areas harder than areas further to the east of our area. The weather has an amazing way of balancing things out

Agreed, I suspect the models are badly underestimating any streameron Monday mindyou.

Here is my gut instinct on any streamer:

1: Sets up around 6am Mon and steaidly strengthens but CLOSE to the estruary mouth, motion WSW.

2: Waxes and wanes during Monday, probably won't be ever present, though my guess is within 10-20 miles of the mouth will probably have a fairly constant snow rate.

3: Tuesday AM (3-6am) shifts the streamer towards N.Kent coasts and out through Brighton roughly. Strong model hints that we see a strengthening helped by the shortwave coming through to our north which klicks some extra instability into the system.

4: Some point later on Tuesday (roughly afternoon) winds bends back ENE at steering level and probably streamer gets a rough Feb 09 orientration. Probably will peak shower intensity due to cold pool aloft. This remains till Wed morning.

5: Brief switch to ESE winds late Wednesday. Some uncertainties about this though as there maybe some more stable air starting to come into play from France aheadof the low pressure. Probably decent chance of snow, and probably best shot for those say in NW London.

6: Things settle down somewhat for Thursday.

Edited by kold weather
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