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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL

    A high of 1.8c and now dropping - currently 1.4c with a DP of -5c.

    Some photos from a very chilly walk up behind the village earlier..

    07867C68-74C9-442F-8A75-185701E3736F.jpeg

    BDF02962-07A2-40A6-B79C-B78D6E5FF19D.jpeg

    71CCD98C-B6F9-4E6C-B5DF-816DBC390338.jpeg

    B9B62539-92A6-4F7D-8FF7-D14E1EA340DE.jpeg

    BE4E3353-9C58-4CAD-8DC7-B8A35C96388C.jpeg

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    Christ. Had to actually talk to the missus. Wife: You have been glued to that phone lately, you looking at porn or something? Me: Yes, yes I am... Wife: You dirty b****** what exactly a

    Good evening Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently) MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout th

    The SE contingent watching the radar about 4pm Sunday

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    6 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

    We will be very lucky to see more than a dusting all week anyway in our location, it'll be North, South and West of us, always the same, and already showing this on the more hi res charts. Make the most of tonight/tomorrow morning, cos that will be our lot. Yawn.

    Your user name is apt. :closedeyes:

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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

    Nice to see Amber finally for Medway. I’m still convinced we will see convection tonight and falling snow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

    I believe that showers don't actually follow the flow of the wind, they are off line of the flow,so even though the wind is an ENE, showers will move on a NE line.

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    6 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    I am amazed at that statement

    1987 - 4 Day event

    1991 - 3 Day event (With 14 day build up)

    2010 - 3 Day Event

    Add into that a Possible Blizzard at the end of the 4 days.

    Amazed to be honest we live in the Uk in a Temperate Climate not in Canada in a Continental Climate

    Agree with your post Paul apart from 2010 being a 3 day event. The cold was here for much longer than that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    A bit of background to the warnings currently in place .

    https://mobile.twitter.com/metoffice/status/967752686853677058/video/1

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

    Not sure where you're from where 2010 was a 3 day event. It was 10 days in late November/early December followed by 10 days in mid/late December.

    SE Essex obviously as it says in my Profile

    I am talking about actual Snow Events not the Build Up, It was cold and Frosty with Freezing Fog from the 23rd-29th November but the snow started late evening on the 30th and stopped on the 2nd December. There was no more snow until the 17th December but there was so much it was on the ground still when the 17th started again

    Hope this helps, I am a bit of a Statto with Storms and Events

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    Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
    1 hour ago, Southender said:

    That long range met outlook is unbelievable isn’t it. What a huge change for the worse. Oh well, bring on Mon-Fri. Then perhaps Spring slowly ushering in. If we all get a good dump, then that will make it easier to take. Huge turnaround from Exeter on the extended though ?

    Probably dodgy weekend models again. Probably change again tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    Pretty sure ALL of us will see snow laying this week at least for a few days. Some more than others of course. But at this stage of winter we will just have to take what is given. Yes its looking like more of a 4-5 day wintry spell at the moment, but jesus compared to the last 4-5 years that is fantastic and what a spell this could be. Showers most of the week, then out with a bang on Fri before a slow thaw sets in. Take that with bells on. Enjoy it as quite possibly our last proper shot this season unless the lows track a bit further south later this week. PS; They aren’t even close to being nailed yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
    3 minutes ago, danm said:

    In terms of snow potential across our region it really depends if all we see are streamers setting up which usually tend to favour certain areas depending on the wind flow:

    NE wind = SE Essex, NW Kent, SE London, parts of E Sussex.

    E/ENE wind = all of Greater London, S Essex, N Kent, possibly Berkshire and Surrey. 

    ESE wind = Essex, N London, Herts. Although shorter sea fetch so possibly not as much convection. 

     

    The bigger question is will will we just see a streamer set up or will we see snow showers spread in more widely due to the increasing instability over the next couple of days? I think this is a distinct possibility which would more of us.

    We had around 10" here in Hawkinge (far SE Kent) off of a NE'ly streamer that swung a little ENE in February 2010. It snowed for almost 24 hours and proves that, while the rules above are generally correct with regard to steamer activity, not always to be taken as gospel.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    2 minutes ago, shotski said:

    Agree with your post Paul apart from 2010 being a 3 day event. The cold was here for much longer than that. 

    Yh think cross wires - was talking about the actual snow events

    1991 was like pulling teeth, 20th January until the 6th Feb until the snow arrived, this forum would have melted down - Pmsl

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    February 1991 - 8 days (from first snow grains to the end when slight thaw)

    January 1987 -  10 days (from first snow grains to slight thaw)

    December 2010 - went on for many days with slight less cold days followed by colder snowy days.

    I have logged winter weather back to 1983 which backs this up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cricklewood, north London
  • Location: Cricklewood, north London
    8 minutes ago, danm said:

    In terms of snow potential across our region it really depends if all we see are streamers setting up which usually tend to favour certain areas depending on the wind flow:

    NE wind = SE Essex, NW Kent, SE London, parts of E Sussex.

    E/ENE wind = all of Greater London, S Essex, N Kent, possibly Berkshire and Surrey. 

    ESE wind = Essex, N London, Herts. Although shorter sea fetch so possibly not as much convection. 

     

    The bigger question is will will we just see a streamer set up or will we see snow showers spread in more widely due to the increasing instability over the next couple of days? I think this is a distinct possibility which would affect more of us.

    I think that last point is pertinent. People are getting hung up on streamers, but instability is such that showers should be fairly widespread across the region. I'd wager most people will see falling snow, but always smaller depths the further west and north you go.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunbury, Near Staines SW London
  • Location: Sunbury, Near Staines SW London
    1 minute ago, Big Snow said:

    I think that last point is pertinent. People are getting hung up on streamers, but instability is such that showers should be fairly widespread across the region. I'd wager most people will see falling snow, but always smaller depths the further west and north you go.

    Yes I totally agree, I don’t think people in the West will be disappointed thiugh

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    4 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Great post, you can clearly see why they have put the warnings where they have for tomorrow. With that being said, I still strongly suspect a thames streamer will set-up tomorrow morning. I maybe wrong of course, but the flow looks right and the cold air is aloft. Slight hinderence is the higher pressure then I'd like BUT north Germany has done fine with higher.

    ps, yes there will be showers coming in as well for others, but amounts may not be enough to justify any type of warning. Still I'd suspect most will have a shot at atleast dusting, and some will clearly get WAY in excess of that.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent - 61m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent - 61m ASL
    1 hour ago, lottiekent said:

    I've decided I'm in the amber warning zone. Positive thinking works on the weather right? :rofl:

    IMG_0936.PNG

    Considering your height - I'd say that may assist you!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk

    I think we're placing too much emphasis on streamers over the next few days. We haven't experienced such cold uppers in a fair few years, especially across a not overly cold north sea. 

    I think we'll see showers forming more widely than people are thinking, you only have to look at Germany and the showers that have been pushing in off of a much colder Baltic than north sea. 

    Streamers may well bring the best chance for deeper snow cover, but I feel pretty confident most areas of EA and the SE will at least see a covering of snow over the next few days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Lets have a check in around the region

    Temp : 2.6c

    Dewp : Minus 7.6C

    Wind : Easterly

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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
    3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Great post, you can clearly see why they have put the warnings where they have for tomorrow. With that being said, I still strongly suspect a thames streamer will set-up tomorrow morning. I maybe wrong of course, but the flow looks right and the cold air is aloft. Slight hinderence is the higher pressure then I'd like BUT north Germany has done fine with higher.

    ps, yes there will be showers coming in as well for others, but amounts may not be enough to justify any type of warning. Still I'd suspect most will have a shot at atleast dusting, and some will clearly get WAY in excess of that.

    I agree, I think the early hours could hit Medway big time

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    Posted
  • Location: Cricklewood, north London
  • Location: Cricklewood, north London
    1 minute ago, Craig Smith said:

    Yes I totally agree, I don’t think people in the West will be disappointed thiugh

    Well, I'm not sure. Considering the synoptics I think it'll be underwhelming for some. If the wind was a little more to the east, showers would have funneled through the estuary, across London and well to the west...similar to Feb 2 2009. Of course, then people in Kent would have missed out a little. It's swings and roundabouts. Personally, where I am in north-west London I'm expecting a dusting by end of Wednesday, maybe a couple of cms.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
    28 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

    Anyone know how to use the ignore function?

    Click on the line icon top right of page. Select account then ignored users and add anyone you like. I've found it a very useful function but my list gets longer every day

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    Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire

    I’ve given myself a slap around the face after being too pessimistic earlier.

    With such a fluid situation, we may all see something decent, but clearly Kent is the sweet spot.

    To be honest, a slight covering will beat anything I’ve seen here over the past few years!

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