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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Earls Colne essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow snow
  • Location: Earls Colne essex

    Live in Earls Colne small village near Colchester, warned a lot of people about this and how serious it could be , all you here Back my weather app doesn’t say that!!!! I travel to Acton London everyday , and I think il be having a couple of snow days this week, can’t wait for the to begin , reckon il work tomoz but tues/weds lookin doubtful , what do people think

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    Christ. Had to actually talk to the missus. Wife: You have been glued to that phone lately, you looking at porn or something? Me: Yes, yes I am... Wife: You dirty b****** what exactly a

    Good evening Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently) MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout th

    The SE contingent watching the radar about 4pm Sunday

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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
    10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Agreed, I suspect the models are badly underestimating any streameron Monday mindyou.

    Here is my gut instinct on any streamer:

    1: Sets up around 6am Mon and steaidly strengthens but CLOSE to the estruary mouth, motion WSW.

    2: Waxes and wanes during Monday, probably won't be ever present, though my guess is within 10-20 miles of the mouth will probably have a fairly constant snow rate.

    3: Tuesday AM (3-6am) shifts the streamer towards N.Kent coasts and out through Brighton roughly. Strong model hints that we see a strengthening helped by the shortwave coming through to our north which klicks some extra instability into the system.

    4: Some point later on Tuesday (roughly afternoon) winds bends back ENE at steering level and probably streamer gets a rough Feb 09 orientration. Probably will peak shower intensity due to cold pool aloft. This remains till Wed morning.

    5: Brief switch to ESE winds late Wednesday. Some uncertainties about this though as there maybe some more stable air starting to come into play from France aheadof the low pressure. Probably decent chance of snow, and probably best shot for those say in NW London.

    6: Things settle down somewhat for Thursday.

    Wondering about the Northeastern extent of the streamer? Some maps have a potential 5-10 cms for eastern parts of Suffolk about 10 miles from the coast. Can remember benefitting from this setup in the past although obviously not to the same level as those down in SE Essex and Sussex/Kent.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    Will be visiting family later today, so hopefully I'll see snow on the ground this time :( Missed out since 2013!

    Clipboard02.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: IN THE FOOT HILLS AND DENSELY FORESTED AREAS OF TUNBRIDGE WELLS IN KENT
  • Weather Preferences: I like a bit of weather
  • Location: IN THE FOOT HILLS AND DENSELY FORESTED AREAS OF TUNBRIDGE WELLS IN KENT
    21 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

    I feel sorry for the poor sheep in the snow.

    To be serious that's why I've moved them close... Stables all open.... Full water troughs, copious hay and nuts and Hovis Finger Rolls for the Ram.  I'm looking forward to the snow JennyJane1 but am extremely concerned about the severity of these temperatures.... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
    4 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

    Stay positive mate, it hasn't even started yet:)

    I’m trying, but it’s not looking great for my area.

    Disturbances in the flow are looking less likely now, so the usual suspects will do well from streamers. Need a cleaner easterly for anything decent here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Well early days, they may expand the amber zone tomorrow or even Tuesday when it looks more apparent where heaviest and frequent snow showers will align.

    I understand why they have updated to amber as the Euro4 shows an uptick of convection for the areas the amber warning covers, plus most other moderls do the same. The thing that needs to be watched is the models are probably underdoing snow potential on Monday. We will see but models haven't done that well with several streamers in the Baltic sea thus far which are in a similar airmass to what we are in. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ipswich
  • Location: Ipswich
    2 minutes ago, Long haul to mild said:

    Wondering about the Northeastern extent of the streamer? Some maps have a potential 5-10 cms for eastern parts of Suffolk about 10 miles from the coast. Can remember benefitting from this setup in the past although obviously not to the same level as those down in SE Essex and Sussex/Kent.

    Same. With the luck we have even an easterly wont give us almost nothing while Norwich gonna get buried as usual.... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    What are the wind speeds likely to be over the next few days?...be nice to see a bit of drifting which is becoming a rarity now days!

    Really breezy yesterday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
    12 minutes ago, Southender said:

    That long range met outlook is unbelievable isn’t it. What a huge change for the worse. Oh well, bring on Mon-Fri. Then perhaps Spring slowly ushering in. If we all get a good dump, then that will make it easier to take. Huge turnaround from Exeter on the extended though ?

    Watch the TV forecasts change also in relation to the weekend. They are ALWAYS 12-24 hours behind with the public TV forecasts. I'm sure the presenters must feel the frustration we feel also at times, especially those that pursue meteorology as a hobby too. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
    4 minutes ago, Sarah Anne said:

    Im in ashford :nonono::nonono:

    Screenshot_20180225-140836.png

     

    4 minutes ago, Sarah Anne said:

    Im in ashford :nonono::nonono:

    Screenshot_20180225-140836.png

    Rather be there than in Hertfordshire :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: snow (but who doesnt like that)
  • Location: Rye East Sussex
    2 hours ago, Mikel Nimbus said:

    I've only been looking at GFS ppn charts which show Kent as the bullseye zone but a lot more ropey for us north of the Thames with only the odd weak trough pushing through. Any other hi-res output people have seen which can give a bit more hope to us northerners?

     

    Also, I don't understand how the upper flow at times looks very ESE, a lot like 09 in fact yet the streamers are still progged a direct NE.

     

    Oh well. All fun and games. Good luck everyone.

    Is this for the week coming or friday

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    For  the week and Friday  very bad

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    1 hour ago, Great Plum said:

    Looks like a streamer...

     

    C07B3111-3008-459C-B292-275553B447D8.png

    I’m just a little to the NW of the amber warning area. Hopefully the heavy showers extend a bit further west!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    That Amber Warning does denote more of a NNE Streamer to me in its allignment, this would favour Medway Towns and Ashford more than the Thames Estuary I would have thought. Time for it too change I guess

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    The really cold uppers haven’t even engaged the warmer North Sea yet. There is the potential for huge convection, yet we all know how bad the models are at picking it up. Those writing off snow chances need to bear this in mind.

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
    25 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

    This is the maximum snow coverage for Brighton according to weather.us, it looks like I will spend all my Thursday evening outside making the most of snow :) before it starts melting on Friday.

     

    Screen Shot 2018-02-25 at 13.54.49.png

    Just watch BBC news 24  weather  through snow God Thomas is doing it and he's talking about a full blown blizzard on friday

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    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester

    My few point has dropped like a stone here in Cobham Surrey currently -8.2c any body else starting to see more dominant continental surface flow yet ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunbury, Near Staines SW London
  • Location: Sunbury, Near Staines SW London

    Remember the warning areas are for guidance only, don’t get hung up about whether you are in or out of the Amber area. Things will undoubtedly change...

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    Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
    29 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Met office extended updates flip and flop like a flag in the wind!

    They haven’t this past month though. At all. Been rock solid. And then, at the crucial time, it’s flipped (and that really is an overnight flip).

    Wonder who’s trashing the GFS now?

    Could re-flip of course. Feels unlikely though given that the increasing westerly influence is easier to forecast. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunbury, Near Staines SW London
  • Location: Sunbury, Near Staines SW London

    I’d also add, there will be bands of snow that will pop up over the next few days, these are impossible to forecast...

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    Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
    49 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

    I feel sorry for the poor sheep in the snow.

    Snow is actually quite beneficial for sheep. Unless they're buried obviously. Mine can come in if they want but being sheep they're always looking for a near death experience....?

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