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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


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6 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Hello Chelle and other posters, especially us Essex contingent. Another road that may be a bit of a challenge in southeast Essex is the one that is into Rayleigh past the Railway station towards the town centre. I believe it is Crown Hill if my memory serves me right.

As far as next weekend is concerned as others have stated it is a long way off yet and the models are subject to chop and change in the interim. Being an oldie now I can remember as a youngster listening to the evening weather forecast on the BBC Home Service as it was then called (I guess it would be Radio 4 today) during the big freeze up of 1962/63 and on many occasions the presenter would state a breakdown from the southwest in 2 to 3 days time, but it never happened. the warmer air either rode over the top of the cold air or the area of low pressure was rebuffed by the bloc to the east/northeast.

I remember that winter particularly well as I lived in a council house at the time, in Writtle. it was built just after the end of WW1 (a home fit for heroes) and was being upgraded just as the cold weather set in. The contractor had removed the pebble dash etc for the exterior of the house and one could see daylight through the gaps that were then present. Needless to say it was absolutely freezing even with our coal fires on, with ice to the inside of the windows. Each morning we had to break the ice in order to go to the loo.

Kind Regards

Dave

 

Crown hill is awful road also bread and cheese in Benfleet church hill thundersley surrising how many big hills with main roads there are around here. 

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Just now, Tom Jarvis said:

Steve some minors adjustments on the low this morning hopefully they keep moving it south 

Yes I would take many of the ENS as they slide the low

- bet those t'up north a little worried now...

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Eagerly waiting the met office extended outlook. Normally lunch time. If still forecasts the blizzards and the cold spell to continue then I expect the models to extend the cold on this evenings runs. 

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Worth highlighting the risk on Tues of this system bringing heavy snow to W parts of E Anglia. However a low risk at the moment as it may only affect E Midlands instead.

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Right guys preperations underway here - Sledge waxing / Thermals coming out etc etc !!

I will be on here from 3 ish !

Let the excitement begin... ❄️❄️❄️

looking forward to your valuable input 

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Yh some of the no go zones around this area as follows

Crown Hill and Hambro Hill in Rayleigh. absolute Death Traps

Church Road in Benfleet

The road that drops down from Hadleigh into South Benfleet

Langdon Hills, some of those roads will be a challenge

Add in the A127 & A13 when the BMW, AUDI & Mercedes rear wheel drive hamster wheels start spinning away and sliding across lanes when they are sitting on your bumper flashing you and you have a recipe for fun and games!

Best 3 sledging places

One Tree Hill, they even have floodlights

Weald Park, have it on good authority that the gamekeeper will open the gates if you fancy Midnight Sledging

Southend has some pretty good hills down to the coast as well esp near Leigh On Sea Station

 

Enjoy it!!

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1 minute ago, Essex Chelle said:

Crown hill is awful road also bread and cheese in Benfleet church hill thundersley surrising how many big hills with main roads there are around here. 

it's to keep the unwanted away from Southend and surrounding areas in the winter months . . . .

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Right guys preperations underway here - Sledge waxing / Thermals coming out etc etc !!

I will be on here from 3 ish !

Let the excitement begin... ❄️❄️❄️

Steve I think I speak for the whole of this region when I say, please don't ever move from the South East! Your input is invaluable. 

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26 minutes ago, Essex Chelle said:

We'e got the heights top of my road (used to be the dump lol) I'll wave across to you Leigh and southend peeps. Essex way omg imagine that to try driving up or down ?

I live near the bottom of Vicarage Hill, it’s fun watching people go up, then come back down, as they can’t quite make the golf course. ??

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes I would take many of the ENS as they slide the low

- bet those t'up north a little worried now...

Yes lol but they should really be hopeing it goes south as it then means the cold spell will be lasting a lot longer. Also we haven’t had snow for such a long time and is allot easier for them to get it 

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I've only been looking at GFS ppn charts which show Kent as the bullseye zone but a lot more ropey for us north of the Thames with only the odd weak trough pushing through. Any other hi-res output people have seen which can give a bit more hope to us northerners?

 

Also, I don't understand how the upper flow at times looks very ESE, a lot like 09 in fact yet the streamers are still progged a direct NE.

 

Oh well. All fun and games. Good luck everyone.

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I don't normally ask so before anyone says ofc I know any prediction can't be for certain, but I've seen nothing said regarding Bedfords chances in this set up. Got a very busy week and was wondering If anyone could give me a heads up what possibly my chances are, as all being well after today I might be collecting a cat :) .

Any input would be greatly received .

Many thanks in advance .

 

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9 minutes ago, Mikel Nimbus said:

I've only been looking at GFS ppn charts which show Kent as the bullseye zone but a lot more ropey for us north of the Thames with only the odd weak trough pushing through. Any other hi-res output people have seen which can give a bit more hope to us northerners?

 

Also, I don't understand how the upper flow at times looks very ESE, a lot like 09 in fact yet the streamers are still progged a direct NE.

 

Oh well. All fun and games. Good luck everyone.

Check out this tweet from John Hammond - if anything, suggests north of the Thames may be the place to be on Tuesday. But not to be taken too literally.

https://twitter.com/weathertrending/status/967698634556018694

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 So many recent quotes of the meto further outlook from overnight (which is generally left the same as the noon update) 

give it 45 minutes and you can post the updated thoughts of the pros

the higher the chance of an end of week blizzard, the higher the chance of a breakdown. You can’t really have one without the other. 

I suspect this deeply cold pool headed into the Atlantic will play havoc with the algorithms in the modelling. they could well have this right and I will be quite impressed if they do given the unusual background. 

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Sledge is ready...I.e) located at the end of the garage no-one dares go where all the spiders hang. Dusted off. It’s been so long since I used it, I forgot what colour it even was. 

 

Epsom Downs, I’m ready for you.:yahoo:

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