SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[leemondo]

10 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Heading out for a walk on the Ashdown Forest later this morning. Should be stunning up there so will try and post some photo’s.

With regards to this week, I’m sure a lot of us will see some snow, though I know from personal experience how frustrating showers can be. Nov 2010 I was 8 miles too far inland and missed a “channel clipper” and then a couple of days later was 5 miles too far south to miss a Kent streamer.

End of the week could go either way but I’m sure some of the best snowfalls on record have come from these set ups. The MO are not making any mention of the dreaded “rain or sleet” at the moment which is encouraging.

The other thing that strikes me with the long term update is that they’re still seeing very cold easterlies beyond next weekend. Am I right in thinking that would suggest the low heading east across Northern France and towards Benelux rather than northwards?

We are going to brave the forest too! Gonna be bloomin cold as it is a tad exposed up there lol 

[shotski]

earth.nullschool.net

sorry can’t post link but have a look at the website above and the wind direction at 10hpa level. The whole of the polar vortex is in full reversal  and this is why I can’t see any return to westerly flows. Low pressure systems are literally being  smashed to pieces in the trop. 

 

Edited February 25, 2018 by shotski

[snowblizzard]

13 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Bbc are really smelling the coffee now, they are suggesting a wind chill factor of -15C!

Yes, but not committing themselves on snow amounts!

[SLEETY]

Anyone in Worthing area looking for sledges Tesco online still have them and you can pick up from Worthing stores or get delivered by Tuesday,don't know about other SE regions .just grabbed a couple,my kid doing back flips on the floor now we got a sledge FINALLY

[danm]

We don’t have to go back long to remember a situation where the models forecast a low moving progressively north and little to no snow forecast for us. December 2017!

The weather forecast the day before had us down for rain in north London, however by the next morning, after some early rain, snow set in and lasted through most of the day giving us about 3 inches. That system continually corrected south over the days leading up to the event, but even the day before, the snow was a little too far north for here, yet we got what we got. 

At the moment, only small adjustments south or east would give us an all snow event. As it stands we are still forecasts a period of heavy snow before the milder air possibly wins out. We have 5/6 days till then, so lots can change. Plus plenty of potential between now and then for heavy snow. 

[snowblizzard]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

06z GFS showing the streamer activity again for Monday:

Not a strong reflection of it, but its there and I think the higher resolution models will increasingly amplify it over the next 24hrs.

Is that 1mm every 3 hours?

[CK1981]

This is encouraging....

http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/europe.php?icao=EGLL

Snow showers beginning at midnight, but this is at Heathrow, so earlier further east.

Edited February 25, 2018 by CK1981

[snowblizzard]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Anyone in Worthing area looking for sledges Tesco online still have them and you can pick up from Worthing stores or get delivered by Tuesday,don't know about other SE regions .just grabbed a couple,my kid doing back flips on the floor now we got a sledge FINALLY

That's put the mockers on it then! 

[snowrye]

Morning all,here we go then,hopefully the start of some beefy snow falls later,I shall be radar watching from 7pm lol

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Is that 1mm every 3 hours?

Yes, would equate to 1cm every 3hrs roughly. However the global models are going to well undershoot because as I've said countless times they can't pick up on shower trains all that well, so the fact it is representing it at all is actually not a bad sign.

[throwoff]

I bought a sled last week ?

[mulzy]

Glorious start to the day here.

2.1C.

[craigore]

Lovely sunny morning.

Dropped to -2c currently 0.0c 

Thats on the coast so would be colder a few miles inland one would imagine

Very dry air here , just walked dog and can feel the moisture sucked form the face & lips..

Due pnts must be very low.

[yamkin]

1 hour ago, fatyido said:

So, the downgrades have started, the charts are being watered down, and people in here will soon become almost suicidal. I look with interest and also humour at the emotional rollercoaster ride that a lot of people go through on here, and particularly the MOD site. As ALWAYS, with model watching, everyone is chasing the next event, and it's always days away. A week ago today we were looking at snow showers by this Friday, that came and went, then it was Sunday afternoon into the evening, not a flake in sight, then talk of very heavy snow showers from Monday getting heavier into Tuesday, hmm, not much evidence of that yet, and certainly not really supported by the BBC, and now we are chasing at Red alerts and blizzards on Friday, then rain on Saturday. Phew.

i am not a mild ramper,, in fact, quite the opposite, I almost pray for snow and I am glued to this site, and I will be addicted to this regional site all week in the hope snow is spreading my way.  My point is, these 'experts' on here that look at colourful chart pictures and can see blizzards, heavy snow, deep cold lasting 2 weeks etc etc, are really wishing these things, because they never materialise. I'm looking forward to seeing some snow this week (hopefully) but I think I'll put the snow plough away for another year. Good luck everyone!

 

[Scandinavian High.]

Hi all I’m in Orpington Kent do you think we will see a  covering  because when I check weather forecasts there not much for South East England and  Wednesday and Thursday looking dry..

[CK1981]

2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Hi all I’m in Orpington Kent do you think we will see a  covering  because when I check weather forecasts there not much for South East England and  Wednesday and Thursday looking dry..

I think you’ll certainly see a fair bit before the wind veers more South Easterly on Wednesday.

Edited February 25, 2018 by CK1981

[danm]

Interesting graphic just posted by John Hammond on Twitter. 

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Hi all I’m in Orpington Kent do you think we will see a  covering  because when I check weather forecasts there not much for South East England and  Wednesday and Thursday looking dry..

Is that the google forecast by any chance?

Unless it’s an actual mini ice age somewhere they tend to go with ‘sunny with a cold breeze - and possibly a shower’

[bluebell]

Made it back in one peice to the Baltic south east. In foolish anticipation i’ve Dug out my mini luge ? ,only had one run out in March 2013 I think! Tom (cat) is ready to have a go! ?

[turkishfella]

hi lovely people, i just woke up and checking the latest models. Last night some people were saying that I am a troll and here to confuse people. I am just an ordinary guy living in Brightion and praying to see some snow since 2013. I am just sharing what the reality is, why is this confusing people???? Shall I just say ohhh yes we are buried in snow and it will last two weeks!!! Anyway here is the answer to my tweet from Aiden McGivern:

 

[Essex Chelle]

Oh it had to be done ? with next day delivery ?

[SnowyNorfolk]

Any idea how Norwich will do? I’m desperate to see some snow! There doesn’t seem to be much consistency with the forecast for Norfolk. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Essex Chelle said:

Oh it had to be done ? with next day delivery ?

Wouldn’t it be ironic if the snow postponed your delivery

[CK1981]

7 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

hi lovely people, i just woke up and checking the latest models. Last night some people were saying that I am a troll and here to confuse people. I am just an ordinary guy living in Brightion and praying to see some snow since 2013. I am just sharing what the reality is, why is this confusing people???? Shall I just say ohhh yes we are buried in snow and it will last two weeks!!! Anyway here is the answer to my tweet from Aiden McGivern:

 

You were making some quite outlandish statements regarding the return to much milder weather and rain next weekend, which made it look like you were trolling. At the end of the day none of us know the precise track of Friday’s low (not even the professionals in Exeter), but from past experience, it should correct south over time putting us all in the game for more prolonged cold.

Edited February 25, 2018 by CK1981

[kold weather]

Just to let you guys know the 06z GFS is marginally better...BUT that marginally better gives a far greater chance at a total snow event for even the south coast!

So UPGRADE onthe 06z...to close to call still!.

Remember south and east = better, west and north = rain.