SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Bugger, mum asked for the forecast for today to stick a whole load of washing out, checked the radar and it looked clearish, forecast showed zero chance of rain all day on nw, went to check the radar again and that hail band looks to have intensified and will clip me here but only just! Sods law better get the stuff back in in a mo, now that she's at work

 

Edited February 15, 2018 by The East has Ceased

[KDME]

15 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Just checking in to see if we are getting closer - Stats below make grim reading

Feb 4th the arrival of the snow was touted on here by Jaffacake to be around the 15th Feb so at Days 10-12

Feb 9th the arrival was pushed forward a bit to Days 7-9

Feb 12th the arrival was pushed back to days 9-11

Feb 14th we athat we have been waiting for this "Easterly"re now looking at days 12-14 again

Lets face it - It is not going to happen 

Hoping we get some dry weather with High Pressure to dry things out and then warm up a bit as we get into the 2nd week of March.

I was thinking that we have been waiting for this fabled easterly since the end of Jan!  You have summed it up perfectly.

Some are really clutching at straws now ... If it does happen, it will be a squib - cold for a few days with the transient rain snow rubbish.  I want warmer weather - these nagging low temps are long in the tooth now.

[kentcloud]

Just walked the dogs along the beach at Greatstone, lovely sunny day, up to 11c and feeling warm especially with the shelter of the dunes. Who knows what it will be like this time next week? If it turns out to be like today I won't be complaining. 

Some strength in the sunshine as well, I'm looking forward to spring now     

[lawrenk]

Well well well... Full all the model inconsistency, the MO update, to my eyes, is a further upgrade on yesterday’s already very good one!

Doesn’t seem to be any doubt in their mind, as they’re now saying it WILL turn much colder at the end of next week with snow mentioned. Not only that, indications it will stay this way in the SE for a while into March so maybe a 2 week proper cold spell!

I don’t know about anyone else but I can’t remember many occasions where the MO have been this bullish this far out? Their super computers must be producing some exciting output. Hopefully we’ll see it soon on our ZX81 Models!

[Southender]

12 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Well well well... Full all the model inconsistency, the MO update, to my eyes, is a further upgrade on yesterday’s already very good one!

Doesn’t seem to be any doubt in their mind, as they’re now saying it WILL turn much colder at the end of next week with snow mentioned. Not only that, indications it will stay this way in the SE for a while into March so maybe a 2 week proper cold spell!

I don’t know about anyone else but I can’t remember many occasions where the MO have been this bullish this far out? Their super computers must be producing some exciting output. Hopefully we’ll see it soon on our ZX81 Models!

Agreed. For those that have not seen the update...

However, it will turn much colder by the end of the week and into the following week, as the wind tends to turn east or southeasterly in direction. Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant snowfalls focused on southern, central or eastern areas. The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time. However, some milder unsettled weather still may occur at times, especially in the west.

UK Outlook for Friday 2 Mar 2018 to Friday 16 Mar 2018:

In first week of March, it is likely to stay cold with widespread overnight frost. There will be a greater chance than usual of easterly winds developing, which would bring very cold weather at times and the potential for some snowfall in eastern and even southern parts. Unusually, it will probably be driest in the northwest.

That is very bullish. May/Might/Could wordings from previous updates replaced with WILL as you say Lawrenk. Let's hope they are right.

Edited February 15, 2018 by Southender

[Lampostwatcher]

6 minutes ago, Southender said:

Agreed. For those that have not seen the update...

However, it will turn much colder by the end of the week and into the following week, as the wind tends to turn east or southeasterly in direction. Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant snowfalls focused on southern, central or eastern areas. The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time. However, some milder unsettled weather still may occur at times, especially in the west.

UK Outlook for Friday 2 Mar 2018 to Friday 16 Mar 2018:

In first week of March, it is likely to stay cold with widespread overnight frost. There will be a greater chance than usual of easterly winds developing, which would bring very cold weather at times and the potential for some snowfall in eastern and even southern parts. Unusually, it will probably be driest in the northwest.

That is very bullish. May/Might/Could wordings from previous updates replaced with WILL as you say Lawrenk. Let's hope they are right.

yes you would only use the word WILL

if you were either very sure of something 

[lawrenk]

13 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

yes you would only use the word WILL

if you were either very sure of something 

I think that’s right.

The MO know that, where cold and snow is concerned, any mention of it is jumped on by the hysterical elements of the media, hence the usual caveats of “may” and “possible” etc.

As you say, we can only assume they are seeing something pretty compelling to be so bold.

On this basis, I fully expect a red warning to appear over my locality during the next 48 hours. 

[Chris101]

I think the CF must be pretty sure hes gonna get one up here on Ecm/Gfs, either that or he's retiring soon and doesn't give two hoots.

[KDME]

We WILL see, that is for sure ...

When was the last SSW induced easterly in the UK?

Edited February 15, 2018 by Weather_Novice

[Allezwasps.]

Not convinced the snow shovels will be required in wokingham this year to be honest.

[JennyJane1]

Its gonna get cold for sure now because my bird decided to hatch a baby yesterday so now there's this tiny scrappy little thing with no feathers and it needs to be kept warm.Anyway, suddenly very dark over this way, although i was out earlier and it didn't feel too cold.Gonna stock up on stew ingrediants at the weekend just in case.Just my luck that when the snow is forecast i shall have to travel and always get stuck at peterborough for an hour and its always freezing.

[Wimbledon88]

3 hours ago, lawrenk said:

Well well well... Full all the model inconsistency, the MO update, to my eyes, is a further upgrade on yesterday’s already very good one!

Doesn’t seem to be any doubt in their mind, as they’re now saying it WILL turn much colder at the end of next week with snow mentioned. Not only that, indications it will stay this way in the SE for a while into March so maybe a 2 week proper cold spell!

I don’t know about anyone else but I can’t remember many occasions where the MO have been this bullish this far out? Their super computers must be producing some exciting output. Hopefully we’ll see it soon on our ZX81 Models!

Yes,i agree.very rarely seen a forecast like that. 

Probably won't satisfy the so called experts on the MAD thread who ate probably trawling through every run to pick out a downgrade.

I definitely think we are going to see some severe winter weather in next 10 days.

[Paul Sherman]

Are the Met Office updates not playing catch up ? I really cannot see where the Chief Forecaster has got that update from when there own model this evening is pretty shocking, Ecm says No, Gfs says no.

We shall see if the CF has a crystal ball in the next 7 days I suppose.

But if you were going off latest model data it would be the following

Easterly showing on 2 Perbs out of the suite at..........yep you guessed it Days 10-12 

[lawrenk]

1 minute ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Yes,i agree.very rarely seen a forecast like that. 

Probably won't satisfy the so called experts on the MAD thread who ate probably trawling through every run to pick out a downgrade.

I definitely think we are going to see some severe winter weather in next 10 days.

I was just going to post a similar thing!

Keep banging on about it but the MO have firmed up on this Easterly today not backed off.

Maybe if we are looking at week beg 26th it’s still out of reach of the models we see?

[shotski]

On 13/02/2018 at 21:22, shotski said:

Not bad views today if I do say so. Only -9 so a bit warmer than yesterday.

As if being punished by the weather gods it’s been heavy rain all day here on our last day and the snow in the village is slowly being eroded away ? 

 

rain even at 2000 mtrs, so it’s not just the UK. 

[Darkcloud]

12 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Are the Met Office updates not playing catch up ? I really cannot see where the Chief Forecaster has got that update from when there own model this evening is pretty shocking, Ecm says No, Gfs says no.

We shall see if the CF has a crystal ball in the next 7 days I suppose.

But if you were going off latest model data it would be the following

Easterly showing on 2 Perbs out of the suite at..........yep you guessed it Days 10-12 

I don't understand! What are they seeing that we're not?? Glosea/mogreps must be far superior that they can disregard what the other models are showing. Can only think that they are playing catch up as you said and will downgrade massively in the next day or two

[lawrenk]

50 minutes ago, Darkcloud said:

I don't understand! What are they seeing that we're not?? Glosea/mogreps must be far superior that they can disregard what the other models are showing. Can only think that they are playing catch up as you said and will downgrade massively in the next day or two

If that is the case that makes a mockery of them as an organisation, as it’s effectively saying the public, through the free for everyone Models, have access to more up to date information than they do.

If that’s true, what are they there for?

Edited February 15, 2018 by lawrenk

[Laurence Hill]

Well, it sounds like the ECM has had second thoughts and the cold spell is back on again.

If it does come to fruition, hats off to the Meto.

[SMU]

EXM 216 continues with the Easterly as the cold & height profiles build to the east-

Interestingly its a chart that shows very low heights but with sufficient blocking its got no where to go-

[shotski]

32 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

If that is the case that makes a mockery of them as an organisation, as it’s effectively saying the public, through the free for everyone Models, have access to more up to date information than they do.

If that’s true, what are they there for?

Time will tell but I expect they have this one in the bag. I’d imagine the raw data we have access to is far inferior to what the MO have at their disposal. 

[Lampostwatcher]

chances have increased imo 

ecm is fantastic 

met office telling us it WILL get colder and not MAYBE 

fingers crossed 

we deserve this  no more looking at a few sleety flakes in the wind 

and 3 hours per shower lol

Edited February 15, 2018 by Lampostwatcher

[Emz by the Thames]

You put your easterly in, your easterly out, in, out in out, the models shake it all about.....

It's nerve-wracking being a MOD thread lurker, I think I'll take a few days off!!

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Are the Met Office updates not playing catch up ? I really cannot see where the Chief Forecaster has got that update from when there own model this evening is pretty shocking, Ecm says No, Gfs says no.

We shall see if the CF has a crystal ball in the next 7 days I suppose.

But if you were going off latest model data it would be the following

Easterly showing on 2 Perbs out of the suite at..........yep you guessed it Days 10-12 

They have their in house model MOGREPS it’s the main thing they go by. Exeter are confident therefore you should take note of this! I haven’t seen anything as bullish as their written outlooks in many years,

Edited February 15, 2018 by Daniel*

[Rob Deacon]

What the hell is going on lol?

I went in the MOD/MAD thread, first few pages were horrible feeling like winter was really over, then all of a sudden it's THE BEAST FROM THE EAST coming!!

Then I read the Met office long range, my interest has perked right up!

why do i do this? going to be a right come down when its 2c and raining lol 

[lawrenk]

Latest ECM to my untrained eye looks pretty much like the MO update. Cold Easterly established at day 10 with even colder air waiting in the wings...

Could all change again by next runs though!!