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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
    12 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    They are a joke,last night said disruptive snow showers now wintry shower Showers?

    wtf they smoking this metogroup,Avery must be tearing his hair out.

    Hope not. If he forgets his bobble hat, he'll have nothing to keep his hea warm and dry with

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    Christ. Had to actually talk to the missus. Wife: You have been glued to that phone lately, you looking at porn or something? Me: Yes, yes I am... Wife: You dirty b****** what exactly a

    Good evening Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently) MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout th

    The SE contingent watching the radar about 4pm Sunday

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    How I find this cam can’t click the link :-(

    cut and paste it into a new browser

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    Posted
  • Location: Canvey Island
  • Weather Preferences: Deep untouched powdery snow and red hot beaches sipping cocktails
  • Location: Canvey Island
    2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    How I find this cam can’t click the link :-(

    Yeah some reason it didn't open up the link. So just select and paste it into your browser 

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    Posted
  • Location: Canvey Island
  • Weather Preferences: Deep untouched powdery snow and red hot beaches sipping cocktails
  • Location: Canvey Island

    Hamburg right now

    Screenshot_20180225-091611.png

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    like me mines 15 wind chill  on the cards I work out  side with   the forcast I might just book   Friday off and stay at home it's looking horrible with heavy snow and bizzards  for Fri and Sat and being cut off 8 miles  from home won't  be fun

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea

    Looking east from my house, the clouds building over the southern north sea/Thames estuary - nothing too get excited about just yet, but a good sign of early instability ;-)

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    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

    Let's hope just for once we are in luck. I think even the low will deliver ice rink is a word that comes to mind 

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    Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
    1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

    Goes along with the thought of many people buried in snow :yahoo:

    DDA9C537-5E7B-43FD-AF40-B15E71655B3A.png

    Ties in nicely with my thoughts last night, with the low passing south of the Channel Islands and then ENE through the Cherbourg Peninsular.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

    Heading out for a walk on the Ashdown Forest later this morning. Should be stunning up there so will try and post some photo’s.

    With regards to this week, I’m sure a lot of us will see some snow, though I know from personal experience how frustrating showers can be. Nov 2010 I was 8 miles too far inland and missed a “channel clipper” and then a couple of days later was 5 miles too far south to miss a Kent streamer.

    End of the week could go either way but I’m sure some of the best snowfalls on record have come from these set ups. The MO are not making any mention of the dreaded “rain or sleet” at the moment which is encouraging.

    The other thing that strikes me with the long term update is that they’re still seeing very cold easterlies beyond next weekend. Am I right in thinking that would suggest the low heading east across Northern France and towards Benelux rather than northwards?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

    Bbc are really smelling the coffee now, they are suggesting a wind chill factor of -15C!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    1 minute ago, CK1981 said:

    Ties in nicely with my thoughts last night, with the low passing south of the Channel Islands and then ENE through the Cherbourg Peninsular.

    yep, was a great should . . . kudos

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    have a look at the satellite images-

    https://en.sat24.com/en/gb

    you can see light cloud forming in the thames estuary and also a little 'stream' of cloud moving into london. the cloud currently in the channel is due to the even higher SST's there-

    sstuk.thumb.gif.9cf4af3ecdc1a73a58d9321e7027507d.gif

    once the colder air moves in, we should see even more cloud forming. this is what will cause the convection and (hopefully) streamers in the coming hours and days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lowestoft Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Lowestoft Suffolk UK

    Those members getting anxious about the end of next weeks possible snow event should relax. Not only are recent GFS/ECM outputs likely to change being so far out (T+120) but by then the UK will be entrenched in bitterly cold surface temperature's which are notoriously difficult to budge once established. Look at it this way. We will be starting with maximum surface temperature's (end of next week) at or below freezing. Every km ^ the temperature drops by 6.5C. 850hpa is 1.5km ^, so the temperature will be 10C less than the surface, so roughly -10C. Then add in this morning's less cold 850hpa temperatures for next Friday (+8C). It will still mean what falls from the sky will be snow........ALL the way up. NO rain. To add thickness levels will be perfect for some really heavy snowfalls.

    Anyway, we have lots of snowfall to nowcast before then...... pointless looking at the snow forecast charts from now on. Better off watching the radar and satellite for real developments or looking at the latest FAX outputs.

    Lowestoft Weather

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    Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
    3 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

    yep, was a great should . . . kudos

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see it correct south further though. The ICON is a higher res model, so it ‘should’ be more accurate at that range.

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    2 minutes ago, lovesnow said:

    looks like a small snow shower tracking towards uk 

    http://meteoradar.co.uk/realtime-snowfall#

    I'd be surprised if he made it to the uk .. the poor little thing is really flagging lol

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

    have a look at the satellite images-

    https://en.sat24.com/en/gb

    you can see light cloud forming in the thames estuary and also a little 'stream' of cloud moving into london. the cloud currently in the channel is due to the even higher SST's there-

    sstuk.thumb.gif.9cf4af3ecdc1a73a58d9321e7027507d.gif

    once the colder air moves in, we should see even more cloud forming. this is what will cause the convection and (hopefully) streamers in the coming hours and days.

    Great spot, I am able to see what look like a line of higher cloud in the distance, makes sense it would be along the Thames where the higher temperature differential would be.

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    Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL

    Morning

    Low overnight -1.4c, now -0.4c with a dew point of -4c. Still quite windy so our walk shortly will be a cold one!

    Really hoping to see enough snow to have at least one snow day this week (although I’ve a feeling work expect me to walk in from the hills to work over 3 miles each way - downhill there and uphill back!) and wait for everyone’s updates throughout the day!

    Good luck today @TomSE12

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    6 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

    have a look at the satellite images-

    https://en.sat24.com/en/gb

    you can see light cloud forming in the thames estuary and also a little 'stream' of cloud moving into london. the cloud currently in the channel is due to the even higher SST's there-

    sstuk.thumb.gif.9cf4af3ecdc1a73a58d9321e7027507d.gif

    once the colder air moves in, we should see even more cloud forming. this is what will cause the convection and (hopefully) streamers in the coming hours and days.

    this is a quick photo looking south east and shows the clouds overhead the Thames estuary

    20180225_093053.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    06z GFS showing the streamer activity again for Monday:

    Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

    Not a strong reflection of it, but its there and I think the higher resolution models will increasingly amplify it over the next 24hrs.

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