SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Speedbird]

3 minutes ago, Mal Kapadia said:

All those looking for a Met Office red earning a few days before an event, it's not going to happen. The nature of a red warning coupled with how certain businesses and infrastructure look at them means a red warning will only ever be released when they are absolutely certain that action needs to be taken. This generally means a red warning is only given once an event has started (or at the very most a couple of hours beforehand).

Thanks,

Mal 

sorry, but if that was correct (which it isn't) then what would be the point of issuing a red warning if there wasn't enough time to act upon it.

Red warnings are issued when all elements of doubt about its issuance are removed.

[LightningLover]

Good morning! Radar watching begins later today! Temp. 1.0C, dew point -4.4C

[Mal_UK]

Just now, snowblizzard said:

BBC Weather not really giving any indication or warnings of disruptive snow in SE?

Phil Avery saying today and tomorrow not really a problem but after that bitterly cold with a few wintry showers! 

I'm worried that we might not see much from this stunning set-up?

I personally think that with this setup, almost anywhere in the eastern half of England could see snow from Monday mid afternoon onwards, but in smaller accumulations. Thursday and Friday could be very good for some snow lovers however! Who knows!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

5 minutes ago, Mal Kapadia said:

All those looking for a Met Office red earning a few days before an event, it's not going to happen. The nature of a red warning coupled with how certain businesses and infrastructure look at them means a red warning will only ever be released when they are absolutely certain that action needs to be taken. This generally means a red warning is only given once an event has started (or at the very most a couple of hours beforehand).

Thanks,

Mal 

Very true, red warnings are usually real time sometimes if an event is in its early stages and development can be seen live they will issue one to cover the period of biggest impacts. I've been under one once in relation to a Thames streamer

[NO LONGER POSTING]

2 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

sorry, but if that was correct (which it isn't) then what would be the point of issuing a red warning if there wasn't enough time to act upon it.

Red warnings are issued when all elements of doubt about its issuance are removed.

Because majority of businesses have a notification system in place of weather warnings if it impacts them. 

yellow be aware 

Amber be ready 

Red take action 

[tinybill]

1 minute ago, Mal Kapadia said:

I personally think that with this setup, almost anywhere in the eastern half of England could see snow from Monday mid afternoon onwards, but in smaller accumulations. Thursday and Friday could be very good for some snow lovers however! Who knows!

i dont take much notice of bbc weather now they are so wrong

[bobbydog]

9 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Expecting amber around where high confidence of streamers are.. Thames valley, Wash, etc But also immediate inland areas from coasts 

hmm.. the met office shorter term update isn't as impressive as i had hoped which makes me a little uneasy regarding snow amounts, especially for my location where we really need heavy frontal snow or streamers to get decent amounts. its tempered my excitement a little for the early part of the week but snow is a difficult beast to predict so here's hoping we get last minute upgrades, it can and has happened!

[Mal_UK]

2 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

sorry, but if that was correct (which it isn't) then what would be the point of issuing a red warning if there wasn't enough time to act upon it.

Red warnings are issued when all elements of doubt about its issuance are removed.

Yes, which for snow, is when normally once it is falling. There is no way they will release a red on Wednesday for Friday.

 

Red means take action now. It's amber that means be prepared.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see a red, but it will once they know for sure snow is heavy.

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1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

hmm.. the met office shorter term update isn't as impressive as i had hoped which makes me a little uneasy regarding snow amounts, especially for my location where we really need heavy frontal snow or streamers to get decent amounts. its tempered my excitement a little for the early part of the week but snow is a difficult beast to predict so here's hoping we get last minute upgrades, it can and has happened!

Models are super struggling to pin point anything down at the moment. Also most of the time like thunderstorms we have no idea where they will crop up just a broad area of rough estimate and 80% of the time it doesn't follow what we think

[lewis028]

-10 to -15c uppers look to cross our region between 9pm- midnight tonight, I’d expect to see some showers forming in the North Sea with the instability leading upto then. Radar watch at the ready ?

[runboy]

19 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

I'm 10 miles SW of Norwich - all down to luck and the correct following wind!

Indeed, just feels like 2010 again with a lot of the country under snow and us with a snowflake. That's mother nature and can't be challenged so fingers crossed.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It’s gonna be an interesting country file forecast later!

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Models are super struggling to pin point anything down at the moment. Also most of the time like thunderstorms we have no idea where they will crop up just a broad area of rough estimate and 80% of the time it doesn't follow what we think

whilst thats true, the met office will also be using real-time observation data. the models will always be several hours behind at least. as always, actual snowfall locations and amounts will be predicted by radars and lamp-posts!

[Nick F]

EC snowfall accumulation up to Weds consistently going for highest accums towards coasts of Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, N and W Kent, SE London and SW into E Sussex to W Sussex border

Turning drier for Home Counties on Wednesday and Thursday, as winds beer more ESE giving short sea track and much  less fetch for showers to develop.

those worried about Friday, GFS indicating that it’s not really until the evening, after a day of snow, it turns to rain, with good reason to think the low and frontal boundary separating cold from less cold air will be corrected south over coming runs

So that pretty much a full week of cold and snow, Met Office 6 day forecast concurs that it doesn’t get ‘milder’ until Saturday

 

Edited February 25, 2018 by Nick F

[Lauren]

We can but wait. We know we've had perfect setups that have failed to show and we've had fantastic events from not much hope. Ultimately we won't know for sure until it's happening. Try not to be too invested and just let it roll.

[Met4Cast]

18 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

sorry, but if that was correct (which it isn't) then what would be the point of issuing a red warning if there wasn't enough time to act upon it.

Red warnings are issued when all elements of doubt about its issuance are removed.

Which tends to be only after the snow is already having an impact. I've known the Met Office to issue Red Warnings at 11pm at night, pointless for letting people know but it's something they take extremely seriously. 

[Speedbird]

4 minutes ago, lewis028 said:

-10 to -15c uppers look to cross our region between 9pm- midnight tonight, I’d expect to see some showers forming in the North Sea with the instability leading upto then. Radar watch at the ready ?

indeed, that's quite some gradient dropping from -5 at 15z to -10 at 21z

[Jayces]

15 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

sorry, but if that was correct (which it isn't) then what would be the point of issuing a red warning if there wasn't enough time to act upon it.

Red warnings are issued when all elements of doubt about its issuance are removed.

Just to back up what @Surrey said, red warnings (take action) are only given just before or during the event the yellow and amber are there much earlier for people to be aware and be prepared as the descriptions suggest and given out much earlier. I expect amber warnings today or tomorrow at the latest if of course the met think it's warranted.

[Lowestoft Weather]

The infrared and Visible Satellite is picking up a big dollop of cloud moving quickly SW towards Norfolk and Suffolk coastline. I wonder if this has any precipitation on it. If you check the radar loop you will see how quickly its moving and growing in size.

LW

Edited February 25, 2018 by Lowestoft Weather

[snowblind]

Temp -2 Dew point -4. No frost.  I Love dry air!

[kentcloud]

Very best of luck with the scan @TomSE12.

Ridiculously cold on the beach at Greatstone at sunrise this morning, wind chill factor was off the scale.

[Speedbird]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Which tends to be only after the snow is already having an impact. I've known the Met Office to issue Red Warnings at 11pm at night, pointless for letting people know but it's something they take extremely seriously. 

i'm not disputing the point, however many organisations (my own included) work to a disaster recovery level which plays to the worst case scenario, which will 'stand down' if elements of doubt are substantiated and any threat level removed . . . a kind of planning for the worst yet hoping for the best

[NO LONGER POSTING]

In house net weather model its entertaining...

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/netwx-sr

 

Trying to hunt around for useful links 

Radar 

https://en.sat24.com/en/eu/snow

SAT

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/visual

 

 

 

[Mal_UK]

1 minute ago, Speedbird said:

i'm not disputing the point, however many organisations (my own included) work to a disaster recovery level which plays to the worst case scenario, which will 'stand down' if elements of doubt are substantiated and any threat level removed . . . a kind of planning for the worst yet hoping for the best

Yes, exactly, being prepared/making plans (amber).

[Mal_UK]

What are your guys views on what actual temperatures we will see over the coming days?