SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[TSNWK]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

radar shows a clump of snow !

Morning Steve, welcome back! Just in time for the fun... this clump, are you suggesting we might receive a early treat today?

 

ps I’m a a couple of hundred feet up in orpington NW Kent. windward side of the north downs.. I’m feeling quietly confident....

Edited February 25, 2018 by TSNWK
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[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

Good morning snow hunters, 

Today marks second D day. 

Wednesday was the first one this week and now today we enter the point of no return. I'm going  to do a longer look at snow chances later today and will post  up around 4PM

I urge anyone with travel plans over the next week to make sure they check we'll in advance but some will get caught out. 

Good luck, and may the snow forever fall in your garden. 

[Coopsy]

I like this radar....gives a great view in this set up of what’s coming 

https://www.buienradar.nl/

 

[Speedbird]

3 minutes ago, c00ps said:

I like this radar....gives a great view in this set up of what’s coming 

https://www.buienradar.nl/

 

the first batch is heading to northern France . . . our interest is only likely to start from 6pm onwards ;-)

[Coopsy]

Just now, Speedbird said:

the first batch is heading to northern France . . . our interest is only likely to start from 6pm onwards ;-)

I know what I’ll be doing tonight ?

[Radiating Dendrite]

@Steve Murr where did you go for your bit of sun? Looked lovely in the pic you posted.

[leemondo]

Great to see peeps positive this morning in here, can't wait for this to get going! At last my little 5 year old boy will almost certainly see proper snow for the 1st time, he may be slightly more excited than me!! 

[TJP85]

Dreamt last night that all the snow this week was off - may have spent too much time in the model thread reading about potential breakdown. Relieved to wake up from the nightmare! So looking forward to a week of radar and lamppost watching and then getting out and about in it - hoping all our snow itches have been scratched by the time we get to the end of Tuesday, then anything else is a bonus! ?

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Morning Steve, welcome back! Just in time for the fun... this clump, are you suggesting we might receive a early treat today?

 

ps I’m a a couple of hundred feet up in orpington NW Kent. windward side of the north downs.. I’m feeling quietly confident....

not yet - a bit early but things set well for later

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

@Steve Murr where did you go for your bit of sun? Looked lovely in the pic you posted.

marrakech morocco - ?

[Coopsy]

It feels like the run up to christmas when you were a kid....it’s taking so long to get here. I kept waking up last night excited ha ha 

Edited February 25, 2018 by c00ps

[Tom Quintavalle]

10 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Morning Steve, welcome back! Just in time for the fun... this clump, are you suggesting we might receive a early treat today?

 

ps I’m a a couple of hundred feet up in orpington NW Kent. windward side of the north downs.. I’m feeling quietly confident....

Hi TSNWK,

My sister, lives in Tubbenden Lane South, just around the corner from , Farnborough Village, just over 300 feet up and they always do well, from Thames Streamer events. Here's hoping.

Regards,

Tom.

[snowblind]

Seems to be an extra warning for snow on Wednesday, not sure when that was added. Now under a meto snow warning for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps below freezing on Wednesday and Thursday. The app shows heavy snow on Friday with a max of 1. Temps upto 3 on Saturday. A long way off so a lot can change by then but hopefully some decent snow cover before hand.

[Rinse The Raindrops]

Sunday Morning Update

Our cold spell finally arrives today, and temperatures will barely rise above freezing across many inlands districts of Essex until next weekend whilst coastal areas will feel the full wind-chill effect from the Easterly with 30-35mph gusts at times.

The chance of snow showers has been brought forward by around 12 hours or so, but the risk of accumulating snow and disruption remains from Monday evening, through Tuesday and into Wednesday. In total, there are now three Met Office weather warnings in force covering these days.

Overnight model data and guidance statements continue to suggest areas South/East of a line from Clacton to Rainham will see the highest totals during Tuesday and Wednesday. All districts of Essex are at risk of seeing snow, but as is common with showery activity, some places may escape with very little or no snow.

If you’ve read the most recent warnings, you may be wondering why there is a lightning hazard risk as well. With a warmer than average Southern North Sea (by some 2 degrees) and a great deal of instability, this will aid development of cumulonimbus clouds along the coast so don’t be surprised by some vivid blue lightning displays overnight.

Friday brings the potential of a widespread snow event. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the exact track of the low from the Bay of Biscay. If indeed it does track North into the UK, then a memorable blizzard will occur for much of England and Wales. Current thinking from a forecasters point of view is that it will either weaken before reaching us or track Eastwards through France. It is a development that everyone here is keeping a very close eye on and probably won’t be resolved for a few more days.

Finally, I cannot stress how important it is that you check in daily with the Met Office during this cold spell. As you may be aware, the BBC ditched the Met Office for the commercial operator MeteoGroup. Under the new contract rules, the BBC are under no obligation to broadcast on TV, radio or online Government weather warnings of ‘Yellow’ level and/or cold weather alerts. Therefore, you may miss out on these important communications from the Met Office who after all are the official national forecaster.

Our updates will become more frequent from tomorrow (Monday) once snow starts to affect our area. It’s going to be a very interesting week ahead!

Next update: Sunday Evening - Duty Forecaster

[DJ Fart]

Hmmm...am I the only one that thinks our chances of seeing a good amount of snow have reduced? It certainly will snow, but it seems like it'll be more like a cm here and there? 

[Met4Cast]

As someone who drives for a living this week is going to be an absolute logistical nightmare for me so I'm personally not too worried if the breakdown does happen on Friday as currently modelled. 

That gives us 5 days of snow showers/streamers/accumulated snowfall followed by a period of very heavy, significant snowfall on Friday followed by a slow thaw. 

I think everyone in here would be happy with that given recent winters. I'm going for locally 34.4cm to be the max somewhere for our region.

[tinybill]

i suspect red  warning  for friday/sat will be put out mid week after what i saw om bbc 24 weather last night  at 955

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, snowblind said:

Seems to be an extra warning for snow on Wednesday, not sure when that was added. Now under a meto snow warning for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps below freezing on Wednesday and Thursday. The app shows heavy snow on Friday with a max of 1. Temps upto 3 on Saturday. A long way off so a lot can change by then but hopefully some decent snow cover before hand.

it was added yesterday - I would not be surprised if some areas warning for tomorrow turn from yellow to amber during the course of today ;-)

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Expecting amber around where high confidence of streamers are.. Thames valley, Wash, etc But also immediate inland areas from coasts 

Edited February 25, 2018 by Surrey

[runboy]

Anybody from Norwich on here? I'm not feeling positive about this event now, looks like snow to the north east and south east of us and little I'm between?

[Met4Cast]

EURO4 now strongly picking up the streamer signal tomorrow evening > Tuesday. 

Expect this to continue upgrading with each run.

[Norfolk Sheep]

2 minutes ago, runboy said:

Anybody from Norwich on here? I'm not feeling positive about this event now, looks like snow to the north east and south east of us and little I'm between?

I'm 10 miles SW of Norwich - all down to luck and the correct following wind!

[Mal_UK]

All those looking for a Met Office red earning a few days before an event, it's not going to happen. The nature of a red warning coupled with how certain businesses and infrastructure look at them means a red warning will only ever be released when they are absolutely certain that action needs to be taken. This generally means a red warning is only given once an event has started (or at the very most a couple of hours beforehand).

Thanks,

Mal 

[Lowestoft Weather]

Latest Satellite Visible - snow showers making there journey towards the Anglia region for later today. Should be really interesting watching these develop further as the deep cold air interacts with the warmer SST's.

A photo I took 10 minutes ago from Lowestoft facing east, northeast out towards the North Sea. I live a couple of hundred meters from the Sea with some good views, so will be taking some pictures through the hours and days ahead as snow gets close.

BV

[snowblizzard]

BBC Weather not really giving any indication or warnings of disruptive snow in SE?

Phil Avery saying today and tomorrow not really a problem but after that bitterly cold with high wind chill and a few wintry showers! 

I'm worried that we might not see much from this stunning set-up?

Edited February 25, 2018 by snowblizzard