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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 minute ago, Snowflake Queen said:

It was sooo hot last year loved it ! But staying in a very nice hotel this year can’t wait ... after all this let down I need some sun lol 

Agreed, Winter is always a let down in the SE in this country.

Best thing is draw a line under todays disappointing runs, go to bed and a fresh start tomorrow when everything will start to kick off by late afternoon, and enjoy what we do get. Then we can look at what can be salvaged for later in the week, might still end up ok in the end.:)

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Just now, snowray said:

Agreed, Winter is always a let down in the SE in this country.

Best thing is draw a line under todays disappointing runs, go to bed and a fresh start tomorrow when everything will start to kick off by late afternoon, and enjoy what we do get. Then we can look at what can be salvaged for later in the week, might still end up ok in the end.:)

Very true ! Night all if not anything it has been a fun night x

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

Jeez those GFS ENS are a car crash for an extended spell. But we have seen these volatile flips before. Plenty to keep us excited Mon-Thu at present after that who knows. Make the most of it is what I say.

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

Am I missing something or has the world ( this thread ) gone totally mad?

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

A streamer looks likely to develop late Monday GFS has consistently modelled this recently and ECM precipitation charts also have showed this too, and still are courtesy of ventusky. GFS has it initially affecting more eastern parts Kent and so on, through Tuesday morning it edges westwards to affect most of SE England snowfall could fall for many hours. Could dump quite a lot. GFS is clearly underestimating the intensity it will likely be heavy.

93F048A1-7B70-4CE0-A1D1-5EBA4F993962.thumb.png.57b9956eacb9e951fbda4109985938a2.png0340263D-2977-487F-A098-A0BB89E242D3.thumb.jpeg.aa3980e85b331429e8236b2dd5140dea.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Storm That Lasts 3 Days
  • Location: Brighton
8 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Again, you’re miles off the mark. Yes, it may turn milder later in the week, but if you think we’ll only see a cm or so of snow, you’re so wrong. I’m guessing you’re not familiar with lake effect snow?

We do get sea effect snow in Istanbul (from Black sea) like below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBcZkGVyFzo

Edited by turkishfella
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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

Before internet days nobody knew what would happen apart from TV forecasts or watching how many berries the little birdy might eat.

Why on earth anyone is worrying about what Thursdays or Friday might bring is beyond me at this stage, by then you might of had enough of the cold and snow and would appreciate any warm up

 

 

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
5 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

We do get sea effect snow in Istanbul (from Black sea) like below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBcZkGVyFzo

So you should understand that’s what we’re going to get here. Maybe you’re just a troll trying to confuse new members here, but trust me there will be big snowfalls in favoured locations 

And yes, we will have historic low 850hpa temperatures for the time of year.

Edited by CK1981
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Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex (previously Biggin Hill, Kent)
  • Weather Preferences: Easygoing, but winter is meant to be white, dammit!
  • Location: Romford, Essex (previously Biggin Hill, Kent)

Absolutely astonishing....has someone carried back some virus from the MAD thread?

Within the next 3 days, we have the highly likely potential of seeing more snow over a pretty widespread area.  Possibly the most some members have seen in years.

Why the hell are people doom-mongering about the end of the week....which is still not nailed on in terms of a mild breakdown!

How about we keep an eye on it, but not lose focus on what we have on our own damn doorstep, temporally speaking?  :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

So one last post from me tonight:

1: IGNORE those BBC forecasts for snow, they will NOT have the resolution to show snow showers, especially any streamers until they are in the high resolution part of the run, and even then they WILL be under-estimated. The global models equally will pretty pants. Even higher resolution models are doing a bad job with a streamer *now* in the Baltic under the exact same airmass we will have, no reason to think they will do any better 48hrs out

2: Any streamers that set-up for a time will dump big snows for some. Happened in 87, 91,09 and it will happen again in almost identical synoptics. Still think bullseye of 30cms is probable given some places managed that in 12hrs in Feb 09.

3: Any breakdown on Friday is highly uncertain.There almost certainly will be snow at first, but deeper into the day and it could well turn very marginal, especially for the south coast. GFS ensembles are all over the shop and that breeds no confidence in any solution, could very easily swing either way.

Hope the 00z runs place the LP somewhat better!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
1 minute ago, echodelta21 said:

Absolutely astonishing....has someone carried back some virus from the MAD thread?

Within the next 3 days, we have the highly likely potential of seeing more snow over a pretty widespread area.  Possibly the most some members have seen in years.

Why the hell are people doom-mongering about the end of the week....which is still not nailed on in terms of a mild breakdown!

How about we keep an eye on it, but not lose focus on what we have on our own damn doorstep, temporally speaking?  :rofl:

Seems we have a troll here mate. I’m sick of explaining the synoptics 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Storm That Lasts 3 Days
  • Location: Brighton
1 minute ago, CK1981 said:

So you should understand that’s what we’re going to get here. Maybe you’re just a troll trying to confuse new members here, but trust me there will be big snowfalls in favoured locations 

I am not a troll mate, I just fed up with disappointment every winter and want to see some decent snow. I hope I am wrong and all those sea effect snow bands will reach here before it turns mild again next Friday.

Sweet dreams everyone, hope to see better models tomorrow morning...

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
1 minute ago, turkishfella said:

I am not a troll mate, I just fed up with disappointment every winter and want to see some decent snow. I hope I am wrong and all those sea effect snow bands will reach here before it turns mild again next Friday.

Sweet dreams everyone, hope to see better models tomorrow morning...

Ok, but your comments have been very misleading to those new to this. We will all see snow, some more than others, but this is our best opportunity for many years 

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Posted
  • Location: Chevening Kent
  • Location: Chevening Kent
13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

A streamer looks likely to develop late Monday GFS has consistently modelled this recently and ECM precipitation charts also have showed this too, and still are courtesy of ventusky. GFS has it initially affecting more eastern parts Kent and so on, through Tuesday morning it edges westwards to affect most of SE England snowfall could fall for many hours. Could dump quite a lot. GFS is clearly underestimating the intensity it will likely be heavy.

93F048A1-7B70-4CE0-A1D1-5EBA4F993962.thumb.png.57b9956eacb9e951fbda4109985938a2.png0340263D-2977-487F-A098-A0BB89E242D3.thumb.jpeg.aa3980e85b331429e8236b2dd5140dea.jpeg

As I recall from 2009 no significant snow was forcast, a streamer appeared out of no where and dumped about 9inches of snow in that one evening on us on the south side of the Thames.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

Bloody nora,have I gone into the mad thread by mistake,cold and snow not even started yet,and people are getting their knickers in a twist over a bloody system thats 6 days away,jeez guy's,chill,we're on the cusp of something special,for the 1st time in 5 years,5 years,enjoy it,and stop moaning,we could live in siberia itself,and there would still be doom merchants

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
2 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Ok, but your comments have been very misleading to those new to this. We will all see snow, some more than others, but this is our best opportunity for many years 

Agreed it hasn’t combusted into nothing. The only slight issue I have it’s not looking as prolonged the favourable wind directions we all will see snow indeed. Some much more than others probable. 

With Friday well that’s a different story big potential there for blizzards. It could also herald a change, so IMO I’d rather it stay in France model output has trended away from this, but it is a fluid situation.

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
1 minute ago, HighPressure said:

As I recall from 2009 no significant snow was forcast, a streamer appeared out of no where and dumped about 9inches of snow in that one evening on us on the south side of the Thames.

 

That’s spot on. I believe areas around Croydon had close to 12 inches.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

What on Earth has happened in here? We are likely to see the first substantial snow in nearly 10 years, with potential for it to be a once in 30 year event starting in 24 hours and people are still doom mongering?!?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
Just now, Daniel* said:

Agreed it hasn’t combusted into nothing. The only slight issue I have it’s not looking as prolonged the favourable wind directions we all will see snow indeed. Some much more than others probable. 

With Friday well that’s a different story big potential there for blizzards. It could also herald a change, so IMO I’d rather it stay in France model output has trended away from this, but it is a fluid situation.

I totally agree. Snow is on the cards, but Friday is looking suspect for our region. As we both know, it’ll change....hopefully for the better.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
3 minutes ago, HighPressure said:

As I recall from 2009 no significant snow was forcast, a streamer appeared out of no where and dumped about 9inches of snow in that one evening on us on the south side of the Thames.

 

The red warning itself happened when snow itself was coming down. With these set ups expect the unexpected the models are poor on this the high res ARPEGE did a terrible job on Baltic Sea Streamer today.. still ongoing I’d guess...

 

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Pub run now fancying most of the SE to wake up to snow Monday, that’s an upgrade if ever I saw one.. the consensus earlier was nothing till Monday evening.

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