SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[CK1981]

47 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

People need to start learning to ignore the apps

jeez

How many times?!

Don’t get me started. My Dad keeps saying ‘it’s not going to snow here looking at my app’ ??

[kold weather]

Amazingly the 18z GFS still gives some snowfall in the west of this regionn (Hampshire northward) and it does settle. 

Still the trend really does have to come to or a halt or preferably reverse otherwise we will just be looking at a rain event for the whole region for Friday.

Lets see what the GFS ensembles do, got a feeling more will be milder this time given the 18z GFS op is VERY close  to the 12z ECM.

Edited February 24, 2018 by kold weather

[CK1981]

37 minutes ago, MagicBat said:

I know where you coming from. I've been doing this for a few years now - you might surprised. Friday is looking good using multiple indicators and the air is unstable flowing off the North Sea. Some people where hope casting for snow or cold last week even when temps where forecasted at 7c. But it's game on now and no model we have predicts snow content correctly. And yes snow could cause travel issues in some area's come Wednesday night. MagicBat

Indeed!

[snowray]

After a miserable day of model watching T120 fax chart saves the day!

 

(Not saying its right mind)

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

After a miserable day of model watching T120 fax chart saves the day!

 

(Not saying its right mind)

I don’t like that warm front!!

[turkishfella]

Unfortunately it seems like that. The most annoying thing is that I was expecting to get even more snow with that low when it meets with the freezing air over UK. But now it seems like it pushes the cold air north  annoyingly quickly (almost in half day on Friday). I checked the isobars, that low is fed all the way from Africa so it is extremely strong. Unfortunately this is what happens when an unusually cold air mass comes unusually down to south, it creates many low pressure cyclones and those cyclones eat the cold air up  

[snowray]

Just now, CK1981 said:

I don’t like that warm front!!

its only going to be slightly milder than the -15c uppers though CK, still plenty cold enough for any blizzards coming up from France.

[DAVID SNOW]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Amazingly the 18z GFS still gives some snowfall in the west of this regionn (Hampshire northward) and it does settle. 

Still the trend really does have to come to or a halt or preferably reverse otherwise we will just be looking at a rain event for the whole region for Friday.

Lets see what the GFS ensembles do, got a feeling more will be milder this time given the 18z GFS op is VERY close  to the 12z ECM.

The Doors.

The low will try to break on through to the other side.

But it will fail.

[CK1981]

Just now, snowray said:

its only going to be slightly milder than the -15c uppers though CK, still plenty cold enough for any blizzards coming up from France.

Ummmm, I’m not so sure. Check out the front following it, drawing ever warmer air north. 

[Nick F]

Appears the servers are overheating from the amount of weather nerds on Netweather this evening.

Good point about the 2nd SSW perhaps playing a little havoc with the NWP again, but the migration of the block westwards over Greenland and even further west into Canada will always run the risk of an east based -NAO initially with the Scandi block turning into west based -NAO with us on the milder side of the -NAO trough over the Azores.

But we've got unusually cold air nailed for 3 days at least, so best enjoy it while it lasts, if extends beyond Thursday, then a bonus.

Edited February 24, 2018 by Nick F

[kold weather]

So on the ensembles and the model runs for tomorrow we are looking for ANY SE adjustment we can get, any further west or north and its going to be game over for the whole region for Friday.

After tomorrow I'd advise not really worrying over Thurs-Friday as there should be enough nowcasting stuff going on to keep us all busy!

[CK1981]

4 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

Unfortunately it seems like that. The most annoying thing is that I was expecting to get even more snow with that low when it meets with the freezing air over UK. But now it seems like it pushes the cold air north  annoyingly quickly (almost in half day on Friday). I checked the isobars, that low is fed all the way from Africa so it is extremely strong. Unfortunately this is what happens when an unusually cold air mass comes unusually down to south, it creates many low pressure cyclones and those cyclones eat the cold air up  

Not a fair assessment and quite inaccurate for those trying to learn 

[Ben Blizzard]

Wow. Tomasz's BBC Week ahead forecast was a major RAMP!  How many times did he say 'snow' in that forecast - I lost count!!  Widespread snow showers all week and then blizzards and  'significant snow' from that low Thursday/Friday...and then MORE snow into the weekend!  MOGREPS must be seeing something different. All is good....for now 

[Nick F]

7 minutes ago, snowray said:

After a miserable day of model watching T120 fax chart saves the day!

 

(Not saying its right mind)

UKMO-GM has the low in that position on Thursday before tracking it north and all goes pear shaped

[Mr.B]

I’m so looking forward to the nowcasting when it all kicks off! Feels like I’m involved in it now (on NW) rather than on the periphery just watching you all! 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:

Wow. Tomasz's BBC Week ahead forecast was a major RAMP!  How many times did he say 'snow' in that forecast - I lost count!!  Widespread snow showers all week and then blizzards and  'significant snow' from that low Thursday/Friday...and then MORE snow into the weekend!  MOGREPS must be seeing something different. All is good....for now 

If the models are the same tomorrow then mogreps will see it too 

plenty of snow to drift under the bridge before then so enjoy whatever you get 

[Froze were the Days]

14 minutes ago, snowray said:

After a miserable day of model watching T120 fax chart saves the day!

 

(Not saying its right mind)

144 won't though...

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

If the models are the same tomorrow then mogreps will see it too 

plenty of snow to drift under the bridge before then so enjoy whatever you get 

I bet MOGREPS sends this low south 

[Daniel*]

Welcome @Stevie B good time to join in  

I seriously dispute the cold spell breaking down we may well see some less cold air but it’s probable what would fall would be snow. I see much better model output tomorrow morning, famous last words.  

[lottiekent]

Just now, CK1981 said:

I bet MOGREPS sends this low south 

Fingers crossed!

[Chris101]

3 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:

Wow. Tomasz's BBC Week ahead forecast was a major RAMP!  How many times did he say 'snow' in that forecast - I lost count!!  Widespread snow showers all week and then blizzards and  'significant snow' from that low Thursday/Friday...and then MORE snow into the weekend!  MOGREPS must be seeing something different. All is good....for now 

Word has it that MOGREPS takes the first low through the channel and the others follow it keeping the Easterly flow over the UK which is why they keep the wording East wind in their update.

[turkishfella]

4 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Not a fair assessment and quite inaccurate for those trying to learn 

why? I don't claim that I am an expert anyway but these are what I learned from my experience so far, sorry if they are wrong.

By the way here iare some attachements. First one is snow and rainfall graphy for Brighton between today and Next saturday. The second one shows that Thursday half day the milder air is entering the region which means precipitations will be rain. Do you think am I wrong? 

 

[DAVID SNOW]

Just now, Chris101 said:

Word has it that MOGREPS takes the first low through the channel and the others follow it keeping the Easterly flow over the UK which is why they keep the wording East wind in their update.

That's exactly why I said the low would not break through.

[Mr.B]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Welcome @Stevie B good time to join in  

I seriously dispute the cold spell breaking down we may well see some less cold air but it’s probable what would fall would be snow. I see much better model output tomorrow morning, famous last words.  

I’m with you @Daniel*. I’ve got a feeling about this! It feels different, like something really unusual is about to happen! 

[pureasthedriven]

20 minutes ago, snowray said:

After a miserable day of model watching T120 fax chart saves the day!

 

(Not saying its right mind)

528 dam line lifting out of the far south and south east in that? That’s beyond marginal!