Jump to content

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Type up from met check 

Advanced Weather Warning for Ice, Snow and Blowing Snow

A period of much colder weather is expected to reach the UK throughout the course of Monday with snow showers developing across Eastern parts of the UK. Throughout Monday these snow showers are likely to become better organised and move further inland, especially for regions around the Thames Valley, Wash and Humber. 

During Tuesday morning, a more organised band of snow is expected to approach from the North Sea and affect parts of Northeast and Eastern England before pushing further inland. 

Accumulations locally of 5-10cm are expected with the risk of blowing snow across parts of Northeast England and routes across the Pennines during Tuesday. 

Widespread ice is expected overnight across all parts of the British Isles throughout next week combined with a significant wind chill. Further wintry showers are expected throughout much of next week as small scale disturbances develop within the cold Easterly flow, however, at the moment these are too early to forecast or speculate on. 

Please note that whilst this advanced warning expires on Friday 2 March this is likely to be extended as details become clearer. 

Thames Valley always gets my vote. I’m not far from the Chilterns, so may drive up there next week. Having a petrol turbo isn’t ideal in the snow though ??

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 4.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Christ. Had to actually talk to the missus. Wife: You have been glued to that phone lately, you looking at porn or something? Me: Yes, yes I am... Wife: You dirty b****** what exactly a

Good evening Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently) MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout th

The SE contingent watching the radar about 4pm Sunday

Posted Images

7 minutes ago, Southender said:

Interesting. Didn’t realise there was 140 odd miles between us and Holland on an ENE track. Ample sea track and only 50 miles off the width of Lake Ontario! 

actually, it's about 180 miles . . . 

 

 

Edited by Speedbird
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, leemondo said:

For me, the MET office have had this called for around a month ( I think, don't shoot me down!) starting with hints, seen a long time back, they have been very very bullish (for them) in regards to the severity and longevity of this potentially record breaking/making cold spell.

Even with inter run wobbles they have remained straight, and see this as a substantial event, so for now i'd stick with what they are saying, and please IGNORE the apps etc, this will be a mostly nowcast situation I know that it can go wrong quickly, but something tells me this afternoon/evenings model runs are wrong, such a massive block won't be demolished that easily

 

The Met Office have been superb this winter, especially with this cold spell and their bullish predictions.

I bet the BBC regret dropping them as a service provider!

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, yamkin said:

What would that be?

I don’t know how to do a quote to a different thread, sorry, so it’s copy and paste but just so you know I’m usually glass half full and certainly don’t want to dampen any excitement as I’ve been waiting ages for our turn!  this was from TEITS:

 

On a different note I do feel sorry for those in the far SE though i.e Kent. Whilst the snow showers will continue during Wed onwards for N England/Scotland, the convective days for the far SE only appear to be Mon/Tues due to the flow veering ESE,ly. The likes of Norfolk, Suffolk and maybe Essex may still pick up a few snow showers.

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I think that’s conservative for the sweet spots to the east. I don’t expect much more than a slight covering here 

Hi CK1981, after many weeks of cold hunting it's now on our doorstep. The change was always going to be around the 24th Feb / backend of Feb. I wouldn't worry about lack of snow. Our area has several days of snow showers. Some heavy, some not. Snow showers hit the coast at 8pm /9pm tomorrow. Enjoy!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, yamkin said:

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days - Updated: 15:19 on Sat 24 Feb 2018 GMT

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Mar 2018 to Saturday 10 Mar 2018:
March will begin very cold with sunshine and snow showers, these continuing to bring some accumulations especially across eastern parts. Friday could see heavier and disruptive snow developing across southern and some central areas, combined with strong to gale force easterly winds, leading to blizzard conditions. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with this. Thereafter, it is likely to remain very cold through early March with further snow showers in the east and southeast. The best of the sunshine is likely in the west, but all areas will feel bitterly cold in strong winds with a significant wind chill. Overnight frost will be widespread and severe in places. At times, it may turn more unsettled and less cold across the west and southwest.

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Mar 2018 to Sunday 25 Mar 2018:
The start of this period is likely to remain very cold across much of the UK, with bitterly cold easterly winds giving a significant wind chill. There will continue to be a risk of snow across southern, eastern and some central areas, but in the north and west it should be drier. Frosts will continue to be widespread and severe in places. As we head towards the middle of March it may turn more unsettled and less cold with milder and wetter weather spreading up from the south or southwest. This may lead to further significant snow in places although this remains very uncertain. Northern areas may hang on to the colder weather well into March.

It’s an outstanding update, best so far. Yeah, the models are freaking out a bit. But until the hithero rock solid MetO start to wobble, I’m happy.  

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Type up from met check 

Advanced Weather Warning for Ice, Snow and Blowing Snow

A period of much colder weather is expected to reach the UK throughout the course of Monday with snow showers developing across Eastern parts of the UK. Throughout Monday these snow showers are likely to become better organised and move further inland, especially for regions around the Thames Valley, Wash and Humber. 

During Tuesday morning, a more organised band of snow is expected to approach from the North Sea and affect parts of Northeast and Eastern England before pushing further inland. 

Accumulations locally of 5-10cm are expected with the risk of blowing snow across parts of Northeast England and routes across the Pennines during Tuesday. 

Widespread ice is expected overnight across all parts of the British Isles throughout next week combined with a significant wind chill. Further wintry showers are expected throughout much of next week as small scale disturbances develop within the cold Easterly flow, however, at the moment these are too early to forecast or speculate on. 

Please note that whilst this advanced warning expires on Friday 2 March this is likely to be extended as details become clearer. 

So the south east getting nothing now just the midlands and north

 

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, MagicBat said:

Hi CK1981, after many weeks of cold hunting it's now on our doorstep. The change was always going to be around the 24th Feb / backend of Feb. I wouldn't worry about lack of snow. Our area has several days of snow showers. Some heavy, some not. Snow showers hit the coast at 8pm /9pm tomorrow. Enjoy!

Oh I agree with you and many will do very well, unfortunately, I’m not best placed for the biggest falls 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I think the cold spell will end up as a very damp squib...just like our football under McCarthy :)

I want to say back of the net to you, but I'm not so sure.
Stop doing ramping wrong!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Anyone in Kent concerned about the lack of opportunity for snow this week. Apart from Monday/Tuesday I think that’ll be it for us. The winds aren’t right. In 87/91 they were E/NE and delivered. By Wednesday they be SE. Great for Essex/Suffolk probably. Obviously there’s Friday but that might be snow to rain. Fingers crossed though 

Right there wth you.

Cant believe how this bitterly cold air is bulldozed away by the iberian low so quick , was not expecting this scenario at all. But wth most of the big mods now in agreement its the pill we have to swallow.

Also unfortunaly i share your concerns wth the shower activity over kent in the coming days , we need the long ENE fetch to get the big snow here.

Dissapointed wth the output tonite .

Was all looking very promising just a day ago (Fridays forcast)

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to say that I feel really down in the dumps. I really don’t want others to feel lost or this but it’s how I feel I went to the mod thread to be told about the warm weather coming Ming up to get us in the SE. Then I check several different forecasts to see hardly any snow mentioned for the SE. I thought that the SE, Kent, east were in the firing line. I feel like the next north are going to get all the fun AGAIN. 

 

Just read the the three posts above me, it’s scary that we are all thinking this now. 

Edited by DonnaThw
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, chelsea01 said:

So the south east getting nothing now just the midlands and north

 

Met Check ?

Better off stick to the Met Office . . . that Met Check forecast sounds a million miles away from reality

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m a bit worried by the lack of response from SM, unless he’s at 30,000 ft.

No offence Mulzy, just that I find Steve’s comments very relevant.  I still appreciate your comments for Fairway.

 

Edited by Sharpedge
Link to post
Share on other sites

Nothing worse than having some nice fresh snow then all being drained away by rain...hopefully we'll see a good few days of snow and then it will be Cashback!...just east from you @moogyboobles so I'll give you a convection call out as they head your way - hopefully :)

Edited by Froze were the Days
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

I have to say that I feel really down in the dumps. I really don’t want others to feel lost or this but it’s how I feel I went to the mod thread to be told about the warm weather coming Ming up to get us in the SE. Then I check several different forecasts to see hardly any snow mentioned for the SE. I thought that the SE, Kent, east were in the firing line. I feel like the next north are going to get all the fun AGAIN. 

Watch the models not the forecast. They won’t pick up on local features 

Edited by john mac
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Speedbird said:

Met Check ?

Better off stick to the Met Office . . . that Met Check forecast sounds a million miles away from reality

Metcheck use GFS data, so bin that forecast ?

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, leemondo said:

Isn't it strange how many different, virtually unseen posters, who never comment in the MAD thread, seem to come out when there may be a possible end in sight??? 

Gets right on my t*ts that the trolls come out in force and declare it as gospel, yes it may happen, but as a second SSW has just occurrd surely given what we saw before this epic spell came to fruition, the model runs are getting a lot of conflicting signals and trying to pin the tail on the donkey

Agreed. I got a bit cross earlier, especially after reading some posts from other (more northern) regions being a bit spiteful about possible rain and milder temperatures here in the SE later this week. Must say...I can’t wait for summer....

Rain or not, the coming week holds plenty of interest and potential for a good dumping of snow for much of our region. Bitterly cold, too. I’ll be happy to see some heavy snow showers here :) Felt freezing out this afternoon, here comes the cold.

 

Edited by stainesbloke
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

Agreed. I got a bit cross earlier, especially after reading some posts from other (more northern) regions being a bit spiteful about possible rain and milder temperatures here  in the SE later this week. Must say...I can’t wait for summer....

Rain or not, the coming week holds plenty of interest and potential for a good dumping of snow for much of our region. Bitterly cold, too. I’ll be happy to see some heavy snow showers here :) Felt freezing out this afternoon, here comes the cold.

 

That’s northerners for you ??

  • Haha 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, chelsea01 said:

So the south east getting nothing now just the midlands and north

 

Last time I heard the Thames Valley IS in the SE??

I'll b stunned if there isn't a decent amount of snow from Monday-Wednesday evening...and I STILL think a foot is not just probable, but likely in favoured spots and the models nearly always FAIL at this type of set-up as they simply can't pick up the showers due to the resolution of the models not being good enough this far out. Expect the high resolution models to pick it up as we get closer to the time, maybe tomorrow evening.

Three main spots for high snowfalls is NE England, the Wash area and the Thames valley.

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Biensie said:

I don’t know how to do a quote to a different thread, sorry, so it’s copy and paste but just so you know I’m usually glass half full and certainly don’t want to dampen any excitement as I’ve been waiting ages for our turn!  this was from TEITS:

 

On a different note I do feel sorry for those in the far SE though i.e Kent. Whilst the snow showers will continue during Wed onwards for N England/Scotland, the convective days for the far SE only appear to be Mon/Tues due to the flow veering ESE,ly. The likes of Norfolk, Suffolk and maybe Essex may still pick up a few snow showers.

As it stands, Weds may be less showery than Mon and Tues. Less. Before the chance of heavy frontal snow Thurs/Fri. And then likely convective showers into SE beyond the weekend. I’ll take my chances. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi guys and girls , I popped in about 2 hours ago and had a read , was feeling really optimistic , just came back and lots of down in the dumps posts !! What’s happened ? Has it gone pear shaped ?? I’m confused can anyone let me know in a non confusing way ? as I’m not that brainy especially after a few glasses of bubbles ?

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Agreed. I got a bit cross earlier, especially after reading some posts from other (more northern) regions being a bit spiteful about possible rain and milder temperatures here  in the SE later this week. Must say...I can’t wait for summer....

Rain or not, the coming week holds plenty of interest and potential for a good dumping of snow for much of our region. Bitterly cold, too. I’ll be happy to see some heavy snow showers here :) Felt freezing out this afternoon, here comes the cold.

 

I think some of them only do it so as to get a reaction, anyway...Let's face it, we all know that the upcoming cold blast will come to and end eventually? Summer will be rather awful if it doesn't!:santa-emoji:

BTW, I still find the Met. Office is the gold standard, when it comes to extended forecasts...

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...