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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

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Just now, lottiekent said:

Yep, I'm giving it a rest in there for a couple of hours as it annoys me too much!

Let's all enjoy his week, going to be some fantastic snow from late tmw:cold:

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2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

No matter what track that low takes it will be mostly of snow with it either clearing with another front following which would be of rain or it would be back edge rain. So there could be a major blizzard before it turns less cold.

Of course the models have been swinging wildly at the 4-6 day range so take the end of next week with a pinch of salt.

Before then, there looks to be plenty of showers blown across the region.

Have you added your post to the MAD thread as well so that some can calm down :hi:

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It seems from the bbc forecast that has just been put up will bring in showers to east anglia up but not so much the south like Dover across

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Just now, lottiekent said:

Yep, I'm giving it a rest in there for a couple of hours as it annoys me too much!

Likewise! Although I've "hidden/blocked" quite a few members on that thread which makes reading the model thread more palatable! I'm talking about the serial rampers and doom sayers. 

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OMG... BBC Weather showing 15 hours of heavy snow on Friday... (for Bexley) I'm just pleased I managed to get the wine order in this weekend. AND... Met Office showing the same for my area as well so I'm fairly happy with that... bring it on.

Edited by Whereisthesnow?

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I'm sticking with Met Office this week. THE BBC forecast doesn't really show many snow showers at all this week? 

BBC forecasting has gone seriously down hill. 

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The trend later next week is making me nervous. 

What the hell is forcing the low so far north against the cold block.....it just doesn’t make any sense at all.

I bet the second strat warming is setting up a west based -NAO to pee on our parade 😡

Edited by CK1981

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1 minute ago, DonnaThw said:

It seems from the bbc forecast that has just been put up will bring in showers to east anglia up but not so much the south like Dover across

Bbc forecasts have been appalling in my eyes,even yesterday they were showing temps of 7c in london,terrible,trouble is people believe it,my dad is a prime example,I told him 3 days ago,that there is a chance of some big falls of snow,he laughed,replying,there's nothing abput it at all on the bbc,said it might get colder,but no mention of snow,they'll be surprises this week,if you're in the sweetspot

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12 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

Yeah i know but in general, can trains run in that? I am meant to be going from Great Yarmouth to Norwich then to Peterborough then to Doncaster and back again.

As a driver, you have to know the rule book inside out.....they're curiously specific about depths for standing water and snow.

8 inches of snow...anything more and the job stops.  Even with less than 8 inches, journey times are increased as you have to do frequent maximum braking tests to keep the brake rigging from freezing up.

So...it all depends on how good our stellar Network Rail guys are at keeping the lines clear really...and that goes countrywide, not just South Essex.

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Don't worry about the beeb forecast not showing too many showers, the model they are using at that range will not have the resolution to pick up the showers in the southern section of the north sea and into the esturary due to the resolution. Even the high resolution models struggle with this.

If you want to see what it looks like, take a look at N.Germany today, 850hpa temps are as cold as they are there presently when they get here on Monday...except our seas are warmer so in theory even more instablity.

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2 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

The trend later next week is making me nervous. 

What the hell is forcing the low so far north against the cold block.....it just doesn’t make any sense at all.

I bet the second strat warming is setting up a west based -NAO to pee on our parade 😡

As some op models are suggesting a breakdown to the cold around Friday. I think the models are being too progressive with the low pressure pushing further north. Once the beast fully arrives tomorrow night, the cold will be hard to shift.

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4 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

The trend later next week is making me nervous. 

What the hell is forcing the low so far north against the cold block.....it just doesn’t make any sense at all.

I bet the second strat warming is setting up a west based -NAO to pee on our parade 😡

What is happening is the cold pool that shoots out to our west on Weds/Thurs begins to develop an upper low over the Atlantic as its on the exit of the upper jet. It strengthens and deepens and as it does it interacts with the low to its south-east and they start to circulate around a central point around each other. Effectively our cold easterly pool slingshots the LP towards us in the end as the upper cold pool/low is forced on a more southerly track by the upper high over Greenland.

Edited by kold weather

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14 minutes ago, Southender said:

Haha. Won’t be getting the early one out of Southend East next week then

I'd keep a close eye on the website....we'll do our best to run, but realistically there will be quite a few cancelled services....perhaps some shuttles if only part of the route is blocked.

But the rules are there for a reason.....and I don't fancy being at the front of a (at minimum) 157 ton train at 65mph if it all goes bent. :rofl: Doubt the people behind would be too thrilled either.......

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Just now, yamkin said:

As some op models are suggesting a breakdown to the cold around Friday. I think the models are being too progressive with the low pressure pushing further north. Once the beast fully arrives tomorrow night, the cold will be hard to shift.

When the GFS sent the low north I disregarded it because it’s notoriously progressive. Since then other models have followed its lead, with the biggest surprise being the ECM after the UKMO.

I do hope they’re not picking up a trend here driven by the strat. 

Anyway, plenty of interest before then for us all.

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1 hour ago, Southender said:

Christ. I’m pretending I didn’t see that ECM run. That’s a real kick in the nethers. Long way to go but that sort of sh** can do one. Hopefully a massive outlier. Time to forget later next week for now, so much excitement before then. Remain calm 👍🏻😂

Looking at the PPN charts it seems to me that the northerners are going to do a lot better out of this, typical.

SEly by weds, then warming up down here. Oh well, lets hope for the best for our 2 days worth, Monday and Tuesday, as they say beggars cant be choosers.....

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13 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

I've walked from westcliff to benfleet station a couple of times, would take forever if you have to go to work though.

wowsers . . . that's a long old walk. Not too bad in the summer, but wouldn't want to do it this week !!!

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That forecast severely underplayed snow showers into SE England on Tuesday. Wednesday looks very good for East Anglia, you benefit from the longer sea track more time to pick up moisture unlike Dover..

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1 minute ago, echodelta21 said:

I'd keep a close eye on the website....we'll do our best to run, but realistically there will be quite a few cancelled services....perhaps some shuttles if only part of the route is blocked.

But the rules are there for a reason.....and I don't fancy being at the front of a (at minimum) 157 ton train at 65mph if it all goes bent. :rofl: Doubt the people behind would be too thrilled either.......

could you do your best not to run ?

I have a couple of excited kids who want to plaster their dad with snowballs . . . .

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Just now, Speedbird said:

could you do your best not to run ?

I have a couple of excited kids who want to plaster their dad with snowballs . . . .

Exactly. My Missus takes the C2C from East Tilbury. Would be great if it could give us a miss for a few days! :D

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29 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

here is the latest GFS run from now to next Saturday, now it looks a little bit more promising, cold is coming back after a quite mild wave:

giphy.gif

The key for me is how that deep cold gets smashed out of the way so easily. Can’t see it panning out like that.

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Just now, Speedbird said:

could you do your best not to run ?

I have a couple of excited kids who want to plaster their dad with snowballs . . . .

:D I can think of a few colleagues that deserve a couple too.  It all depends on the situation at the time.....the railway is very much damned if you do and damned if you don't.

I can guarantee some people will complain like hell if nothing runs at all....but the weather is the weather. If it truly honks it down, then trains can't be run safely.  No safety = no running.

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10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

What is happening is the cold pool that shoots out to our west on Weds/Thurs begins to develop an upper low over the Atlantic as its on the exit of the upper jet. It strengthens and deepens and as it does it interacts with the low to its south-east and they start to circulate around a central point around each other. Effectively our cold easterly pool slingshots the LP towards us in the end as the upper cold pool/low is forced on a more southerly track by the upper high over Greenland.

Interesting! I still think the block will put up a fight, but we’ll see.

I’d love to see what MOGREPS is showing. The Met Office is steadfast on their colder outlook. Maybe the other models (which we see) are being too progressive. 

What a pickle 😂

Edited by CK1981

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10 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Bbc forecasts have been appalling in my eyes,even yesterday they were showing temps of 7c in london,terrible,trouble is people believe it,my dad is a prime example,I told him 3 days ago,that there is a chance of some big falls of snow,he laughed,replying,there's nothing abput it at all on the bbc,said it might get colder,but no mention of snow,they'll be surprises this week,if you're in the sweetspot

tell me about been trying to tell them at work all i get back the bbc  are not saying  it its going to be dry

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Anyone in Kent concerned about the lack of opportunity for snow this week. Apart from Monday/Tuesday I think that’ll be it for us. The winds aren’t right. In 87/91 they were E/NE and delivered. By Wednesday they be SE. Great for Essex/Suffolk probably. Obviously there’s Friday but that might be snow to rain. Fingers crossed though 

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15 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

The trend later next week is making me nervous. 

What the hell is forcing the low so far north against the cold block.....it just doesn’t make any sense at all.

I bet the second strat warming is setting up a west based -NAO to pee on our parade 😡

Was that not meant to start showing its hand around the 4th? I’m sure I read it🤔

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