SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[Flaked Queen]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

PS, ignore the BBC forecasts for the placement of the showers, their models will not pick up on the local scale that this Thames streamer will be in until its into the high resolution range...just like they didn't in just about every other event I can remember involving these set-ups.

Why don’t they pick it up ? And why are they so far behind ? Ppl have plans and rely on looking at the weather like that ( other than us weather nuts ) no one is agreeing with me when I say snow is coming ! They all say no it’s just cold as the bbc says or news weather apps 

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, tinybill said:

well the BBC  ARE SAYING!!! 20 CM  by wednesday!!

I think that’s conservative for the sweet spots to the east. I don’t expect much more than a slight covering here 

[CK1981]

Just now, Snowflake Queen said:

Why don’t they pick it up ? And why are they so far behind ? Ppl have plans and rely on looking at the weather like that ( other than us weather nuts ) no one is agreeing with me when I say snow is coming ! They all say no it’s just cold as the bbc says or news weather apps 

They’re poor now with their new service provider (Metoegroup).

I think it’s disgusting they dropped the Met Office to pinch a few pennies ?

[londonblizzard]

I know the models are wobbling at the moment in relation to the low pressure system moving up on Thursday/ Friday, but the BBC (Mr Schafernaker) as of late this afternoon are heavily erring on the side of blizzards (not rain) and the cold lasting through to the weekend. https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43184987

Considering the BBC usually stays on the conservative side, this says something. Countryfile forecast will be interesting tomorrow! 
Hopefully the models correct south a bit over the next 24/48 hours

[mulzy]

Evening all - looking forward to the next week.  Some of us will get some significant snowfall - good luck to you all!

2.7C

[snowray]

37 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

The trend later next week is making me nervous. 

What the hell is forcing the low so far north against the cold block.....it just doesn’t make any sense at all.

I bet the second strat warming is setting up a west based -NAO to pee on our parade ?

You took the words out of my mouth there CK, the kiss of death west based -NAO. Probably as a result of the 2nd warming which is having an effect on things. Having scoured the models I see that Navgem has the low further south, but no blizzard of the century either. It will be interesting model watching this week to say the least.

[Laurence Hill]

Just now, mulzy said:

Evening all - looking forward to the next week.  Some of us will get some significant snowfall - good luck to you all!

2.7C

Anything likely in Fairway Mulzy?

[tinybill]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

You took the words out of my mouth there CK, the kiss of death west based -NAO. Probably as a result of the 2nd warming which is having an effect on things. Having scoured the models I see that Navgem has the low further south, but no blizzard of the century either. It will be interesting model watching this week to say the least.

all eyes  on the pub runlater!!

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

You took the words out of my mouth there CK, the kiss of death west based -NAO. Probably as a result of the 2nd warming which is having an effect on things. Having scoured the models I see that Navgem has the low further south, but no blizzard of the century either. It will be interesting model watching this week to say the least.

Squeaky bum time!

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Why don’t they pick it up ? And why are they so far behind ? Ppl have plans and rely on looking at the weather like that ( other than us weather nuts ) no one is agreeing with me when I say snow is coming ! They all say no it’s just cold as the bbc says or news weather apps 

Its not really their fault but the version of the UKMO data they are using isn't quite high enough resolution to pick up on the streamers becuase of their relative size and intensity. Remember most streamers only kick into gear about 20-30 miles away from land and the lower resolution models just can't handle it, even high resolution models usually underdo it. Besides, they are rarely picked up less than 12-18hrs out anyway.

Edited February 24, 2018 by kold weather

[yamkin]

8 minutes ago, Biensie said:

For the first time I’m now concerned after what TEITS has added to the mad thread!

What would that be?

Edited February 24, 2018 by yamkin

[CK1981]

3 minutes ago, tinybill said:

all eyes  on the pub runlater!!

I need this glass of Pinot ?

[mulzy]

Just now, Sharpedge said:

Anything likely in Fairway Mulzy?

$64,000 question!  I would say Tuesday and first part of Wednesday is our best bet here in RP - we are quite a bit west so are dependent on the streamers aligning perfectly.  I am hopeful of up to 2 inches!

Late Thursday into Friday is the big hope.  Was looking pretty good until this evening's model runs.  Let's hope it's only a blip but am not overly optimistic (that might change tomorrow!). 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Type up from met check 

Advanced Weather Warning for Ice, Snow and Blowing Snow

A period of much colder weather is expected to reach the UK throughout the course of Monday with snow showers developing across Eastern parts of the UK. Throughout Monday these snow showers are likely to become better organised and move further inland, especially for regions around the Thames Valley, Wash and Humber. 

During Tuesday morning, a more organised band of snow is expected to approach from the North Sea and affect parts of Northeast and Eastern England before pushing further inland. 

Accumulations locally of 5-10cm are expected with the risk of blowing snow across parts of Northeast England and routes across the Pennines during Tuesday. 

Widespread ice is expected overnight across all parts of the British Isles throughout next week combined with a significant wind chill. Further wintry showers are expected throughout much of next week as small scale disturbances develop within the cold Easterly flow, however, at the moment these are too early to forecast or speculate on. 

Please note that whilst this advanced warning expires on Friday 2 March this is likely to be extended as details become clearer. 

[kold weather]

12 minutes ago, Southender said:

Blimey that is a surprise. Still want it trending further south for insurance though ?

Yeah I fully expected to see some rain on that band, but nope it stays as snow!

ECM ensembles show no real agreement, though there are more milder runs in there this time for sure. Still far more runs that are cold enough than not though.

Edited February 24, 2018 by kold weather

[Flaked Queen]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Its not really their fault but the version of the UKMO data they are using isn't quite high enough resolution to pick up on the streamers becuase of their relative size and intensity. Remember most streamers only kick into gear about 20-30 miles away from land and the lower resolution models just can't handle it, even high resolution models usually underdo it. Besides, they are rarely picked up less than 12-18hrs out anyway.

Ah ok thank you ... tbh if I didn’t have all you informative ppl on here I would be saying the same then ... yep just cold no snow . 

[Southender]

6 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

Just as a guide, the yellow lines represent the ENE and ESE headings - one has a seareach of around 80 miles, the other around 140 miles - there is plenty of warm water in between with the scope for convection to occur ;-)

Interesting. Didn’t realise there was 140 odd miles between us and Holland on an ENE track. Ample sea track and only 50 miles off the width of Lake Ontario! 

[leemondo]

For me, the MET office have had this called for around a month ( I think, don't shoot me down!) starting with hints, seen a long time back, they have been very very bullish (for them) in regards to the severity and longevity of this potentially record breaking/making cold spell.

Even with inter run wobbles they have remained straight, and see this as a substantial event, so for now i'd stick with what they are saying, and please IGNORE the apps etc, this will be a mostly nowcast situation I know that it can go wrong quickly, but something tells me this afternoon/evenings model runs are wrong, such a massive block won't be demolished that easily

 

[Laurence Hill]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

$64,000 question!  I would say Tuesday and first part of Wednesday is our best bet here in RP - we are quite a bit west so are dependent on the streamers aligning perfectly.  I am hopeful of up to 2 inches!

Late Thursday into Friday is the big hope.  Was looking pretty good until this evening's model runs.  Let's hope it's only a blip but am not overly optimistic (that might change tomorrow!). 

Thanks Mulzy, my wife needs to drive to Clapham on Tuesday and Thursday, caring for old lady.

[CK1981]

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Type up from met check 

Advanced Weather Warning for Ice, Snow and Blowing Snow

A period of much colder weather is expected to reach the UK throughout the course of Monday with snow showers developing across Eastern parts of the UK. Throughout Monday these snow showers are likely to become better organised and move further inland, especially for regions around the Thames Valley, Wash and Humber. 

During Tuesday morning, a more organised band of snow is expected to approach from the North Sea and affect parts of Northeast and Eastern England before pushing further inland. 

Accumulations locally of 5-10cm are expected with the risk of blowing snow across parts of Northeast England and routes across the Pennines during Tuesday. 

Widespread ice is expected overnight across all parts of the British Isles throughout next week combined with a significant wind chill. Further wintry showers are expected throughout much of next week as small scale disturbances develop within the cold Easterly flow, however, at the moment these are too early to forecast or speculate on. 

Please note that whilst this advanced warning expires on Friday 2 March this is likely to be extended as details become clearer. 

Thames Valley always gets my vote. I’m not far from the Chilterns, so may drive up there next week. Having a petrol turbo isn’t ideal in the snow though ??

[Speedbird]

7 minutes ago, Southender said:

Interesting. Didn’t realise there was 140 odd miles between us and Holland on an ENE track. Ample sea track and only 50 miles off the width of Lake Ontario! 

actually, it's about 180 miles . . . 

 

 

Edited February 24, 2018 by Speedbird

[CK1981]

2 minutes ago, leemondo said:

For me, the MET office have had this called for around a month ( I think, don't shoot me down!) starting with hints, seen a long time back, they have been very very bullish (for them) in regards to the severity and longevity of this potentially record breaking/making cold spell.

Even with inter run wobbles they have remained straight, and see this as a substantial event, so for now i'd stick with what they are saying, and please IGNORE the apps etc, this will be a mostly nowcast situation I know that it can go wrong quickly, but something tells me this afternoon/evenings model runs are wrong, such a massive block won't be demolished that easily

 

The Met Office have been superb this winter, especially with this cold spell and their bullish predictions.

I bet the BBC regret dropping them as a service provider!

[Biensie]

6 minutes ago, yamkin said:

What would that be?

I don’t know how to do a quote to a different thread, sorry, so it’s copy and paste but just so you know I’m usually glass half full and certainly don’t want to dampen any excitement as I’ve been waiting ages for our turn!  this was from TEITS:

 

On a different note I do feel sorry for those in the far SE though i.e Kent. Whilst the snow showers will continue during Wed onwards for N England/Scotland, the convective days for the far SE only appear to be Mon/Tues due to the flow veering ESE,ly. The likes of Norfolk, Suffolk and maybe Essex may still pick up a few snow showers.

[Froze were the Days]

23 minutes ago, tinybill said:

tueday onwards  could  get hard  fri /sat all so

I think the cold spell will end up as a very damp squib...just like our football under McCarthy

[MagicBat]

14 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I think that’s conservative for the sweet spots to the east. I don’t expect much more than a slight covering here 

Hi CK1981, after many weeks of cold hunting it's now on our doorstep. The change was always going to be around the 24th Feb / backend of Feb. I wouldn't worry about lack of snow. Our area has several days of snow showers. Some heavy, some not. Snow showers hit the coast at 8pm /9pm tomorrow. Enjoy!