SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[john mac]

2 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I’m starting to lose the plot myself lol.@kold weather has made an excellent point looking at the bigger picture.....I’ve been too focused on the low pressure itself.

 

Easy to do mate. It’s big deal. Could be epic falls of snow on top of what we will have already laying in the ground.

[CK1981]

In 30 minutes the next installment of this saga continues ??

[Mr.B]

Hello everyone! Been lurking (that does sound dirty, honest I’m not!) since winter 2013! Finally decided that a once in 30 year weather event I should properly join the ‘Crew’, the ‘South East & East Anglia Crew’! Hello all! 

[kold weather]

12 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Interesting! I still think the block will put up a fight, but we’ll see.

I’d love to see what MOGREPS is showing. The Met Office is steadfast on their colder outlook. Maybe the other models (which we see) are being too progressive. 

What a pickle ?

There is still a relatively small margin of error, if the whole thing ends up even 100 miles SE of where it is currently we remain cold probably for the next 5-7 days given how stale steering currents become afterwards. Got to say the trend has not been friend today BUT still time for changes!

[JennyJane1]

1 minute ago, Stevie B said:

Hello everyone! Been lurking (that does sound dirty, honest I’m not!) since winter 2013! Finally decided that a once in 30 year weather event I should properly join the ‘Crew’, the ‘South East & East Anglia Crew’! Hello all! 

hi

[Coopsy]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

PS, winds at the layer that counts are NOT SE on Wednesday, they go from ESE to ENE and back again throughout the day.

DONT look at the 500hpa lines and assume that is the wind direction, because it isn't. The steering currents will be between 750-500hpa.

Thanks that had me confused - that’ll help 

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

There is still a relatively small margin of error, if the whole thing ends up even 100 miles SE of where it is currently we remain cold probably for the next 5-7 days given how stale steering currents become afterwards. Got to say the trend has not been friend today BUT still time for changes!

Yes, that is a bloody worry. I know people will moan at us looking so far ahead, but if we want a decent cold spell, this has to be taken into consideration 

[john mac]

Just now, kold weather said:

There is still a relatively small margin of error, if the whole thing ends up even 100 miles SE of where it is currently we remain cold probably for the next 5-7 days given how stale steering currents become afterwards. Got to say the trend has not been friend today BUT still time for changes!

Would have thought that the amount of snow that falls in the south before the low pushes through would contribute to how stubborn the surface cold is to shift.

[Flaked Queen]

[tinybill]

just been looking  at me rain alarm  snow showers over germany  in to holland  at the  moment

[Captain Shortwave]

Max temps for this week, from the GFS

0-1C on Monday

-1 - 1C on Tuesday

-2C - 0C on Wednesday

-3 to -1C  on Thursday

The GFS also has this level of cold for Friday though temperatures rise later in the day.

A good few ice days in there for everyone.

[Flaked Queen]

What a snow dance ! 

[Norfolk Sheep]

57 minutes ago, Hellboy said:

Think it's this forecast  

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43184987

 

BBC showing the areas at risk - the midlands, SW and north? Good grief!

[tinybill]

4 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

hi

hi jenny hope your got spade ready  you just might need  it

[CK1981]

If I end up in nomansland with snow to the east and then snow to rain from the south, I’m moving to Moscow ??

[JennyJane1]

Just now, tinybill said:

hi jenny hope your got spade ready  you just might need  it

Hi Bill, what day do you think?

[kold weather]

Well I'm actually a little surprised by the ECM 12z significant weather chart as it actually shows the first front remaining as snow even in the south. Thats because it mixes out the mild air just to our south and so the air is still just about cold enough.

So to my surprise, 12z ECM is a total snow event as well for us! (and note, the chart I'm looking at tends to be slightly conservative I find for snow). Gives us about 3-5cms.

 

[kold weather]

PS, ignore the BBC forecasts for the placement of the showers, their models will not pick up on the local scale that this Thames streamer will be in until its into the high resolution range...just like they didn't in just about every other event I can remember involving these set-ups.

[tinybill]

1 minute ago, JennyJane1 said:

Hi Bill, what day do you think?

tueday onwards  could  get hard  fri /sat all so

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Well I'm actually a little surprised by the ECM 12z significant weather chart as it actually shows the first front remaining as snow even in the south. Thats because it mixes out the mild air just to our south and so the air is still just about cold enough.

So to my surprise, 12z ECM is a total snow event as well for us! (and note, the chart I'm looking at tends to be slightly conservative I find for snow). Gives us about 3-5cms.

 

The cold continental feed to the rescue.

We just need a 100 mile correction south now.

[JennyJane1]

Just now, tinybill said:

tueday onwards  could  get hard  fri /sat all so

Thanks, of course i will let everyone know as soon as i see anything falling from the sky

[tinybill]

Just now, CK1981 said:

The cold continental feed to the rescue.

We just need a 100 mile correction south now.

well the BBC  ARE SAYING!!! 20 CM  by wednesday!!

[Biensie]

For the first time I’m now concerned after what TEITS has added to the mad thread!

[Speedbird]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

PS, winds at the layer that counts are NOT SE on Wednesday, they go from ESE to ENE and back again throughout the day.

DONT look at the 500hpa lines and assume that is the wind direction, because it isn't. The steering currents will be between 750-500hpa.

Just as a guide, the yellow lines represent the ENE and ESE headings - one has a seareach of around 80 miles, the other around 140 miles - there is plenty of warm water in between with the scope for convection to occur ;-)

[Southender]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well I'm actually a little surprised by the ECM 12z significant weather chart as it actually shows the first front remaining as snow even in the south. Thats because it mixes out the mild air just to our south and so the air is still just about cold enough.

So to my surprise, 12z ECM is a total snow event as well for us! (and note, the chart I'm looking at tends to be slightly conservative I find for snow). Gives us about 3-5cms.

 

Blimey that is a surprise. Still want it trending further south for insurance though ?