SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

[kold weather]

Just now, Southender said:

Decent totals, and probably still on the low side based on the fact its not the high resolution output. Still that is a good hint for sure a streamer will be in place, just as some of us have been saying for the last week when the models were showing nada!!

[beng]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

To be fair the models are all pretty close to where they locate the low pressure. Still scope for a shift but the ballpark looks realistic to me. What it means is a highly marginal set-up, increasingly so the further east you go of the center of the low.

Frankly, too early to say on this one, but even if the 12z came off you'd still get an interesting set-up, freezing rain, sleet, snow and normal rain, a total winter storm! However still time for movement and even slight adjustments would make a difference here.

No thanks - really not my cup of tea, a complete slushy mess! Hopefully it will correct slightly further South come the day. 

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Southender said:

For those in my locale ??❄️

I forecast that on my Twitter with Southend the sweet spot  possible under-doing it too. 

[SHM040519]

8 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Good shout!

I think it would be Fridays low that would be the killer! Hoping it goes south! Before that I can't see Heathrow getting much 

[yamkin]

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days - Updated: 15:19 on Sat 24 Feb 2018 GMT

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Mar 2018 to Saturday 10 Mar 2018:
March will begin very cold with sunshine and snow showers, these continuing to bring some accumulations especially across eastern parts. Friday could see heavier and disruptive snow developing across southern and some central areas, combined with strong to gale force easterly winds, leading to blizzard conditions. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with this. Thereafter, it is likely to remain very cold through early March with further snow showers in the east and southeast. The best of the sunshine is likely in the west, but all areas will feel bitterly cold in strong winds with a significant wind chill. Overnight frost will be widespread and severe in places. At times, it may turn more unsettled and less cold across the west and southwest.

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Mar 2018 to Sunday 25 Mar 2018:
The start of this period is likely to remain very cold across much of the UK, with bitterly cold easterly winds giving a significant wind chill. There will continue to be a risk of snow across southern, eastern and some central areas, but in the north and west it should be drier. Frosts will continue to be widespread and severe in places. As we head towards the middle of March it may turn more unsettled and less cold with milder and wetter weather spreading up from the south or southwest. This may lead to further significant snow in places although this remains very uncertain. Northern areas may hang on to the colder weather well into March.

[Speedbird]

8 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Totally!

I think the low will pass just south of the Channel Islands and through the Cherbourg peninsular, which would be great for snow in our region. We don’t, however, want it to go too far south as it would end up dry here.

I am expecting a further correction south, but not excessively. I fully expect the south and Midlands to feel the benefit of the impending snowstorm on Thursday/Friday

[Southender]

Just now, Daniel* said:

I forecast that on my Twitter with Southend the sweet spot  possible under-doing it too. 

What’s your Twitter feed mate?

[snowray]

13 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I don’t buy that either, far too progressive.

I could be totally wrong here, but everything will be modelled south in the coming days.

I hope your right. Just that I was sure that it would have been corrected south by now, the form horse would be to keep it south of course.

[LightningLover]

Silly question, but is Hastings/East Sussex area likely to get decent amounts of snow next week? (In the form of streamers/showers).

Edited February 24, 2018 by LightningLover

[snowray]

And GEM now too!

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, beng said:

No thanks - really not my cup of tea, a complete slushy mess! Hopefully it will correct slightly further South come the day. 

As I said I think freezing rain would actually be the most dangerous of all due to its exceptionally rare occurrence in this country. Hopefully though it just remains as snow!!

Really very good agreement on the center of the low at 144hrs, actually best agreement I've seen in a while unfortunately. Still remember everyone, small margins count!

Edited February 24, 2018 by kold weather

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

I hope your right. Just that I was sure that it would have been corrected south by now, the form horse would be to keep it south of course.

Let’s see what the ECM brings at 6pm. I bet it places the low much further south.

[cookie27]

I have been hunting around and trying to find weather maps with the same set up as this but these recent maps all seem to worse than any I the past 40 Yrs.. Would be good to know if this has occurred before and what happened.. Cheers 

[lawrenk]

5 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Silly question, but is Hastings/East Sussex area likely to get decent amounts of snow next week? (In the form of streamers/showers).

I reckon so.

Hastings seems to be a bit of a sweet spot along the south coast.

[loafer]

5 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Silly question, but is Hastings/East Sussex area likely to get decent amounts of snow next week? (In the form of streamers/showers).

Latest models certainly show potential...

 

[CK1981]

5 minutes ago, loafer said:

Latest models certainly show potential...

 

A little too far south east for me, but I expect more of an easterly flow.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Looking ahead somewhat - just thinking of the Big Thaw. All that water..... I am ordering two weeks worth of moderate to gale force winds to aid the drying out process....

[Gowon]

9 minutes ago, snowray said:

I hope your right. Just that I was sure that it would have been corrected south by now, the form horse would be to keep it south of course.

I was feeling the same... I think by the end of next week will be a slush fest - hopefully ecm will stick with it's earlier output.

[WeatherMoose]

worthing FINALLY might be getting some snow! 

Yippie!! 

[Speedbird]

16 minutes ago, snowray said:

I hope your right. Just that I was sure that it would have been corrected south by now, the form horse would be to keep it south of course.

plenty of model output between now and Thursday to sink it back south again ;-)

[Essex Chelle]

Afternoon - when is kick off? Still tomorrow evening? I'e got so much riding on this- my reputation as snow queen needs this to come off big style!!! Otherwise i may need to resign at work deactivate my Facebook and become a recluse.

[danm]

Due to the forecasted instability between Monday and Thursday due to the deep cold uppers, i don’t think the snow during this period will all be in the form of streamers. I think we’re likely to get a number of showers moving in off the North Sea that will affect areas more widely. 

Edited February 24, 2018 by danm

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, Essex Chelle said:

Afternoon - when is kick off? Still tomorrow evening? I'e got so much riding on this- my reputation as snow queen needs this to come off big style!!! Otherwise i may need to resign at work deactivate my Facebook and become a recluse.

Hopefully it will start right after Songs of Praise . . . .

[Essex Chelle]

Just now, Speedbird said:

Hopefully it will start right after Songs of Praise . . . .

Hallelujah 

[stainesbloke]

31 minutes ago, kold weather said:

To be fair the models are all pretty close to where they locate the low pressure. Still scope for a shift but the ballpark looks realistic to me. What it means is a highly marginal set-up, increasingly so the further east you go of the center of the low.

Frankly, too early to say on this one, but even if the 12z came off you'd still get an interesting set-up, freezing rain, sleet, snow and normal rain, a total winter storm! However still time for movement and even slight adjustments would make a difference here.

No thanks, don’t want any rain, freezing or otherwise. If it’s going to rain, might as well be 12C. Loads of time for adjustments, one to keep a close eye on, for sure, as we are in with a decent shout of a memorable snowstorm.