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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

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One of my friends messaged me earlier about Friday and Saturday to which I replied

You cannot or nobody can tell where an Area of Low Pressure which has not even formed yet will track for 6-7 days ahead and if they do

DONT BELIEVE THEM!

 

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1 minute ago, saint said:

But what about us in South Herts?!?!:D Nobody wants us but we need a home too haha. 

S Herts is defo London and SE Thread :hi:

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16 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

Looking east to the North Sea and after a pure blue sky earlier, cloud already moving in, wind increasing too. I feel a best from the east coming 

This whole week has had the classic ‘old’ easterly build up. Gradually getting cooler, then hinting at cold, starting to feel very cold in the wind and the clearly different drier continental air - even a bit of still and chilly murk and drizzle, a la the prelude to Feb 86, moving into a grumbling North Sea and then kicked off overnight by a little bit of organised snow coming in behind the initial push of 528 dam air (a la Jan 87). A beautiful, nostalgic thing. 

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I made a 10 quid bet with my mate that Essex will get a lot of snow this week. Knowing my luck the streamer will go to the south and we will get a dusting.

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Morning all, temp 3c dp 3c

Sat 24 looking dreamy this morning,behind the weak front in the North sea. Clear  to see the cold air  already working a treat off the West coast of Estonia and Latvia making some wonderful looking shower trains spreading towards Germany and Netherlands. This is the same effect we want to see off the coast of the Netherlands over the next 48hours.

https://en.sat24.com/en/scan/visual

 

Edited by Chris101
Added link

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Good news guys exeter going with ECM  and not the progressive GFS..

Hopefully GFS will correct south on the 12z run. :)

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North Germany is currently getting blasted by snow showers they have the Baltic See see trail of showers clouds they’re going well inland. And we have waters a lot warmer........

229632E0-0DC9-4C14-9710-FE575EE727F5.thumb.jpeg.e30159b5676ff78209b4d68aaa08deb6.jpeg

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I sure hope this spell doesn't downgrade to a 2010 scenario :nonono:

:D:D:D :rofl::rofl:

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Nice to see some of the more experienced posters getting excited about the prospects for NW Kent/SE London. Countryfile forecast will be interesting tomorrow. I imagine when it comes to Friday it'll become rather vague.

I'm hoping for 6 inches here by Thursday/Friday. I would guess anything between 3-10 depending on how lucky/unlucky I am.

Location: Strood, Medway.

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I remember back in January 1985 and that cold spell and I think it was around 9/10th, an Atlantic depression was forecast to bump into a cold air mass over the UK from the west south west and dump 6 inches or so over the south and this was only 24 hours before the event. Of course the channel Isles was only effected and the MetO left with egg on their face - so a very hard forecast to make currently what will happen end of next week, maybe a 24 hours or less before we know will happen.

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UKMO 144 to 168z moves that low pressure very little north eastwards and makes it quite a small tight feature, where it goes after that is another thing. I'm going to ignore the GFS output and just follow ecm/ukmo and see if they sing from the same hymn sheet. :)

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5 minutes ago, wintermaster said:

Novice question the 2010 event was that from a Easterly ?

Thanks

 

ENE

1stdec2010.gif

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7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I remember back in January 1985 and that cold spell and I think it was around 9/10th, an Atlantic depression was forecast to bump into a cold air mass over the UK from the west south west and dump 6 inches or so over the south and this was only 24 hours before the event. Of course the channel Isles was only effected and the MetO left with egg on their face - so a very hard forecast to make currently what will happen end of next week, maybe a 24 hours or less before we know will happen.

I remember that well. I was 12 at the time and went to bed expecting to wake up to a load of snow. Wasn't happy!

Anyway, back to the here and now. Just got back from taking the dog for a walk; that wind is freezing!

Edited by Djdazzle

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16 minutes ago, Hellboy said:

Nice to see some of the more experienced posters getting excited about the prospects for NW Kent/SE London. Countryfile forecast will be interesting tomorrow. I imagine when it comes to Friday it'll become rather vague.

I'm hoping for 6 inches here by Thursday/Friday. I would guess anything between 3-10 depending on how lucky/unlucky I am.

Location: Strood, Medway.

Yeah just about anything is possible, I suspect somewhere is going to be going 40cms+ by Thursday which would push it into the range of the historic big easterlies. Where that will be is a big question!

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I Im being really honest I think many places in east Anglia will not see much snow due to the direction of the wind. Places like London and Kent will do very well but i cant see showers/streamers coming into places like Norfolk,Suffolk or Essex except brushing the coast coming down from the north east.

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4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah just about anything is possible, I suspect somewhere is going to be going 40cms+ by Thursday which would push it into the range of the historic big easterlies. Where that will be is a big question!

Nice to see you still on the forums kold. I remember you posting back in 2005 etc. How time has flown! I'm mostly a lurker.

Yeah someone will be very lucky I guess.

Interesting to note, this chart gave me 6 Inches with 8/9 towards Dartford.

Rrea00120030108.gif

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1 minute ago, Dbarb said:

I Im being really honest I think many places in east Anglia will not see much snow due to the direction of the wind. Places like London and Kent will do very well but i cant see showers/streamers coming into places like Norfolk,Suffolk or Essex except brushing the coast coming down from the north east.

I wager you a virtual tenner that you will be proved very wrong. East Suffolk and Essex are in for a pasting. 

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1 hour ago, cobbett said:

Odd choice of word on the Meto warning

Heavy snow showers are expected on Wednesday. There is the potential for travel delays on roads, with some stranded vehicles and passengers,

and passengers ?  Well I suppose you could have a stranded vehicle without passengers after they've left before being stranded or.maybe it means that the passengers can't walk after being left stranded due to their car being stranded - hmm i must be bored - need to get outside  :cc_confused:

It means that the drivers, who are the ones who pay for the breakdown cover will be rescued but the passengers will be left stranded, lets hope the passengers have the forsight to take a flask of coffee with them.:nonono:I'm happy to report that baby is flourishing, always a worry to have such a tiny scrap of a thing with cold weather expected.Anyone have any guesses for snow when/accumulations, for this area of the coast. ?

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4 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

I Im being really honest I think many places in east Anglia will not see much snow due to the direction of the wind. Places like London and Kent will do very well but i cant see showers/streamers coming into places like Norfolk,Suffolk or Essex except brushing the coast coming down from the north east.

I think you will do a lot better then us on the east kent coast

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And i will wager a £1000

That is an incredibly bold statement/prediction to make seeing as pretty much every north easterly has cripped SE Essex over my 45 years on this planet

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2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

And i will wager a £1000

That is an incredibly bold statement/prediction to make seeing as pretty much every north easterly has cripped SE Essex over my 45 years on this planet

agreed - i think we're in a great location to do rather well from this set-up

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Met Office steadfast with their latest outlook.

Distruptive snow and blizzard conditions still on the table later next week, suggesting the low will track further south than being predicted by the GFS!

Edited by CK1981

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26 minutes ago, wintermaster said:

Novice question the 2010 event was that from a Easterly ?

Thanks

 

yes. a classic ramp followed by carnage

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