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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

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4 minutes ago, yamkin said:

GFS 6z from 126h seems too progressive in bringing in milder air. I can see another outlier again!!

Will be interesting to see where it sits on the GEFS. I’m guessing near the top of the range again. The operationals keep doing this, only to correct and fall in line over time.

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12 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Wednesday is looking exceptional at the moment, massive lapse rates and ever lowering pressure combined with the wind shifting from E to briefly a touch south of east and back to ENE means nearly everyone will have skin in the game on Wednesday. Going real unlucky if you don't get at least one decent fall of snow in this cold spell, favoured locations are going to get buried for sure.

Indeed, not being local one assumes ESE or E is best for places like Harrow / Wembley?

Wrt Friday, the mean GFS ensembles push the cold air further north, albeit slightly. I would still favour the ECM solution, with any precipitation potentially missing much of the SE.

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1 minute ago, Mark Bayley said:

Indeed, not being local one assumes ESE or E is best for places like Harrow / Wembley?

Wrt Friday, the mean GFS ensembles push the cold air further north, albeit slightly. I would still favour the ECM solution, with any precipitation potentially missing much of the SE.

Yep, for your and my locations we want the winds ESE. But I'm sure we'll see something regardless.

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This week is shaping up to be incredible. Can’t wait to see the model runs tonight into tomorrow. I’m hoping for our first flurries Sunday night.

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1 minute ago, Big Snow said:

Yep, for your and my locations we want the winds ESE. But I'm sure we'll see something regardless.

Thanks, thought so. Wednesday looks best then, although I can easily see us gaining a covering from Monday afternoon  

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Odd choice of word on the Meto warning

Heavy snow showers are expected on Wednesday. There is the potential for travel delays on roads, with some stranded vehicles and passengers,

and passengers ?  Well I suppose you could have a stranded vehicle without passengers after they've left before being stranded or.maybe it means that the passengers can't walk after being left stranded due to their car being stranded - hmm i must be bored - need to get outside  :cc_confused:

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1 minute ago, cobbett said:

Odd choice of word on the Meto warning

Heavy snow showers are expected on Wednesday. There is the potential for travel delays on roads, with some stranded vehicles and passengers,

and passengers ?  Well I suppose you could have a stranded vehicle without passengers after they've left before being stranded or.maybe it means that the passengers can't walk after being left stranded due to their car being stranded - hmm i must be bored - need to get outside  :cc_confused:

Maybe they meant coaches and busses? :D

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Guess they mean bus route and train passengers .

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16 minutes ago, yamkin said:

GFS 6z from 126h seems too progressive in bringing in milder air. I can see another outlier again!!

That run has begun to suggest that that low will being to sheer away eastwards as it reaches the UK, it would not take much for the low to edge southwards in trajectory and leave all of us cold. I am not expecting any models to be getting this right just yet, but you would expect the movement of milder air to disrupt at the very least against the cold air over France well before it appraoches the UK. 

Oh well lots of fun to get through before then anyway.

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6z Euro 4 bringing in some snow flurries through the early hours of Monday:

18022603_2_2406.gif

Probably in association with the cold front shown on the FAX charts this morning.

Little wash streamer setting up just to the North of the region too:

18022606_2_2406.gif

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1 minute ago, fulham snow said:

Think thermals,gloves,hats on at footie today,that will be blowing up the Thames 

COYW. Time to drive that stake even more firmly into the ground! Cairney in short sleeves as always! 👏🏻

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3 hours ago, Jimmyh said:

Question for the mods are we splitting this thread next week if it does as predicted get streamers and convective snow kicking off..... 

The 2009 event went through pages and pages for london alone. This thread does cover a huge area

I would suggest these two regions if we do split, yes its going to get busy alright.

I mean we can still use both threads, its not like a civil war is about to break out, the North verses the South now is it!:laugh:

map-of-south-east-england-with-london-highlighted-DY6CWE.jpg

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6 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Thanks @Nikkib74

Updated UKMO warning 04:36

Expecting ~15cm here by close of play Monday - as long as the winds get NE enough- (75 / 80 degrees )

6AEB8524-A06D-481F-82E7-F5EB6A31E1F8.thumb.png.594f18f5d6f6dba5b2b1aab622ed8bd1.png

Yep NE enuff to send a Thames Streamer right down my throat.

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So I've been away for a couple of hours. Lovely day out there, car temp hovering around 4c to 5c, warm in the sun but darn cold in the wind.

So is south Norwich still in line for a snowflake in the coming days or is it turning into a cold blip with warmer weather by the end of the week?

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Looking east to the North Sea and after a pure blue sky earlier, cloud already moving in, wind increasing too. I feel a best from the east coming 

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5 minutes ago, snowray said:

I would suggest these two regions if we do split, yes its going to get busy alright.

I mean we can still use both threads, its not like a civil war is about to break out, the North verses the South now is it!:laugh:

map-of-south-east-england-with-london-highlighted-DY6CWE.jpg

Wow - harsh! Banished!! :rofl:

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4 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Yep NE enuff to send a Thames Streamer right down my throat.

EAGLESSS!
We love you we love you we love you and when you play we'll follow we'll follow we'll follow cos' we support the palace the palace the palace and that's the way we like it we like it we like it woahhhhhhhh!

Quality team and fans - Do you watch them much?


Plenty of snow for you guys this week, enjoy.

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16 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

Thanks, thought so. Wednesday looks best then, although I can easily see us gaining a covering from Monday afternoon  

Yeah my impression is scattered showers for us Monday and Tuesday, probably a dusting, and then scope for something more sustained Weds.

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Pretty sure we split it up in 2009 and 2010

Think it was called East Anglia and 3 Countes Thread which included Beds, Bucks and Northern Herts etc

Ask the Mods am sure it can happen, think we ran at 1 page per minute 8 years ago so you will need to be fast to keep up

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Much angst over in the mod thread. Lots of north south divide going on just because of the GFS and it’s tracking of the low at the end of next week. We still have no exact idea what’s happening Monday to Weds so why they have their knickers in a twist over something over five days away is mystifying!

At least the mood in here is good :drinks:

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I don't think the thread should split, but bearing in mind confusion on mobiles re locations, perhaps we all just get used to tagging on the end of posts, our location.

nr Danbury Essex 

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2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Pretty sure we split it up in 2009 and 2010

Think it was called East Anglia and 3 Countes Thread which included Beds, Bucks and Northern Herts etc

Ask the Mods am sure it can happen, think we ran at 1 page per minute 8 years ago so you will need to be fast to keep up

But what about us in South Herts?!?!:D Nobody wants us but we need a home too haha. 

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Just now, Paul Sherman said:

Pretty sure we split it up in 2009 and 2010

Think it was called East Anglia and 3 Countes Thread which included Beds, Bucks and Northern Herts etc

Ask the Mods am sure it can happen, think we ran at 1 page per minute 8 years ago so you will need to be fast to keep up

Yeah it was split, probably not a bad idea given likely big difference in actual weather depending on the flow.

For the sake of the weather similarities I'd push snowray's map well to the SW, especially after the 09 streamer gave Guildford a crazy amount of snow (probably anyone upto portsmouth could synoptically be in a similar weather set-up as the rest of the SE.

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