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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

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21 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

I will wait for you to be astonished then , when I report back no snow l.o.l :cold: :rofl:

Yep, it seems Thanet and snow have a dislike for each other 

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9 hours ago, Nick F said:

Small world, I lived in Shadoxhurst in 1987, Park Farm Close,  remember the onset, as I went with my father to his office in London on the train on a Sunday with just a few flurries in the city, then when we went home to Ashford on the train, the snow suddenly started getting heavier and deeper on the ground through Kent, on the drive home from the station through the open countryside there were big drifts building over the road so had to get out the car and help shovel snow, at the young age of 11, never will forget. No school much of the next week.

We were hornash lane

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3 minutes ago, yamkin said:

@Nikkib74 Thanks for your comments. I will be releasing very interesting info soon :cold::yahoo:

good old yamkin, keeping us on the edge of our seats :)

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Met office warnings have been updated for Tuesday. Now cover much of the country except for western parts of Wales and the SW

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11 minutes ago, yamkin said:

@Nikkib74 Thanks for your comments. I will be releasing very interesting info soon :cold::yahoo:

Don't tell me you won that £77m? :angry::rofl:

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Met Office ramp! Interesting warnings, expect another review of them tomorrow 

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Meto forecast is now showing me having less snow on Tues but now some on Wed and a lot more on Friday!!! Leaves me a bit confused as the latest news from models seem to show that we're at risk of this sw low coming too far north and dragging up the milder air....??!!! Oh this week is going to be a turbulent one!!!x

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Wow even thundersnow mentioned ❄️⚡️

0E7C6718-D007-4B02-B485-12749C626EBF.png

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Mention of lightning to oh thundersnow only seen it twice both times from a Thames streamer 

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I see on the met warnings that deal to folkestone is not included on mondays warnings but they join in the fun on tuesday and wednesday, lets hope everyone has a share as with what is being forecast there should be enough to spread around :cold:

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7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Met Office ramp! Interesting warnings, expect another review of them tomorrow 

Hi Surrey,

Yes, just read the MO warning and chief forecaster, suggesting showers may begin to develop, tomorrow evening, over our area and develop more widely, through the early part of the week. He even mentions possibility of lightning, not surprising given the temp. differential between upper air and sea/estuary  surface temps, forecast to be 20c >, in the early part of the week.

Regards,

Tom. 

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3 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Meto forecast is now showing me having less snow on Tues but now some on Wed and a lot more on Friday!!! Leaves me a bit confused as the latest news from models seem to show that we're at risk of this sw low coming too far north and dragging up the milder air....??!!! Oh this week is going to be a turbulent one!!!x

don't take any notice of the app symbols. they are produced from raw model data and have no human input and are just a snapshot in time of model data.  they change every hour. read the written forecasts for best info and besides, as others have pointed out, they've just increased the warning area to cover most of the country! also, its gone up a notch on the matrix system. any further increase takes it into amber warning.

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Croydon Borough Council held an urgent meeting yesterday to go over the final preparations regarding the coming Big Freeze.

Gritters for A & B routes and priority footways have been mobilised.

Road gritters were in operation last night undertaking precautionary treatment to priority routes - They will be out again tonight.

Pretreating priority footway routes will commence tomorrow.

Due to the severity of the Big Freeze, the MetO are expected to upgrade their current YELLOW Weather Warning(s) to AMBER later today/tomorrow.

Please be advised the MetO's current YELLOW Weather Warning(s) will be upgraded first - today!

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06z GFS showing totals pile up across the SE by Thursday, especially coastal E Anglia and SW across SE London, N/W Kent, Sussex

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_uk2_21.thumb.png.1ea468f72984590dcf92c3cd500c2ed6.png

But the 06z GFS still wants to end the deep cold on Friday after a spell of heavy snow beforehand, really knife edge to where the low goes now

GFSOPEU06_144_2.thumb.png.b2b6789e63eb245ea3b5693dab71bde0.png

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3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z GFS showing totals pile up across the SE by Thursday, especially coastal E Anglia and SW across SE London, N/W Kent, Sussex

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_uk2_21.thumb.png.1ea468f72984590dcf92c3cd500c2ed6.png

But the 06z GFS still wants to end the deep cold on Friday after a spell of heavy snow beforehand, really knife edge to where the low goes now

GFSOPEU06_144_2.thumb.png.b2b6789e63eb245ea3b5693dab71bde0.png

I know its only one model but look at the coastal strip around thanet towards folkestone.....0 inches

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4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z GFS showing totals pile up across the SE by Thursday, especially coastal E Anglia and SW across SE London, N/W Kent, Sussex

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_uk2_21.thumb.png.1ea468f72984590dcf92c3cd500c2ed6.png

But the 06z GFS still wants to end the deep cold on Friday after a spell of heavy snow beforehand, really knife edge to where the low goes now

GFSOPEU06_144_2.thumb.png.b2b6789e63eb245ea3b5693dab71bde0.png

It certainly shows ingredients for big trouble later next week, major dump on the horizon if the gfs keeps that low around our shores come Friday. GFS seems keen to keep it keep it in the mix where as ECM not so much. Just hope that low centre doesn’t keep that trend of moving further west therefore keeping the SE on the mild end of its tail 

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6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z GFS showing totals pile up across the SE by Thursday, especially coastal E Anglia and SW across SE London, N/W Kent, Sussex

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_uk2_21.thumb.png.1ea468f72984590dcf92c3cd500c2ed6.png

But the 06z GFS still wants to end the deep cold on Friday after a spell of heavy snow beforehand, really knife edge to where the low goes now

GFSOPEU06_144_2.thumb.png.b2b6789e63eb245ea3b5693dab71bde0.png

Possibility that the GFS output for Friday is an Outlier 

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9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z GFS showing totals pile up across the SE by Thursday, especially coastal E Anglia and SW across SE London, N/W Kent, Sussex

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_uk2_21.thumb.png.1ea468f72984590dcf92c3cd500c2ed6.png

But the 06z GFS still wants to end the deep cold on Friday after a spell of heavy snow beforehand, really knife edge to where the low goes now

GFSOPEU06_144_2.thumb.png.b2b6789e63eb245ea3b5693dab71bde0.png

West Sussex not to be confused with East Sussex, the latter being much more prone here. 

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16 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi Surrey,

Yes, just read the MO warning and chief forecaster, suggesting showers may begin to develop, tomorrow evening, over our area and develop more widely, through the early part of the week. He even mentions possibility of lightning, not surprising given the temp. differential between upper air and sea/estuary  surface temps, forecast to be 20c >, in the early part of the week.

Regards,

Tom. 

Indeed, if the flow is near perfect anyone in and around the Thames Valley would do very well I think. The mouth of the estery is around 6-7 c with - 15 air that creates a temperature difference of 21 degrees and in the factor of the sun add all of sudden you have an environment that favours some pretty mega snow showers 

Not to mention elsewhere in the region too very encouraging stuff in the right direction for some pretty nice totals 

Edited by Surrey

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Hmm looks like snow to rain next weekend for SE viewing 6z and of course told friends and family about the possible mega dumping last night - I never learn

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GFS still bullish on that low bringing milder uppers into the mix on Friday. I still think it’s being far too progressive (as the GFS often is), but if it does verify, there will be a lot of unhappy people in this region....me included!

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