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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

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Just now, pinball wizard said:

Same!! 

Fingers crossed for us then! :)

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4 minutes ago, Mark N said:

Hi everyone. Really hope everyone gets snow! Its been a while since a easterly really delivered to all you lot, hope you can share around big dumping of it!  Out of interest does anyone think with the extreme low uppers and relatively warm sea we could see snow showers penetrate as far as Central Southern England. Into Oxon/Bucks/Berks? I’d be intrigued to hear views. In meantime strap yourselves in going to be a fun week! 

Hi, haven’t seen you in a while. Yes that is likely while there won’t be as many. That’s what happened in the past. Also so,e disturbances in flow and that would give organised snowfall inland.

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7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Hi, haven’t seen you in a while. Yes that is likely while there won’t be as many. That’s what happened in the past. Also so,e disturbances in flow and that would give organised snowfall inland.

Hoping the almost perfect combinations for this Easterly allows snow to reach those of us not in the SE corner! :)

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people at work tonight still oblivious to what's going to happen next week.

I've concluded outside of the weather enthusiast nobody looks at the met office for their forecast ,just the BBC forecast on TV,and that's been completely different to the met office

 I've given up with the BBC and their dumbing down of this cold spell,someone told me the local south today BBC forecast showed highs of 3 c next week and chance of wintry showers ,total disgraceful,when you look at the met office for my region and it's showing ice days next week,meteogroup need to answer questions soon,they seem incompetent,and why did BBC choose them anyway!

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38 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Hi, haven’t seen you in a while. Yes that is likely while there won’t be as many. That’s what happened in the past. Also so,e disturbances in flow and that would give organised snowfall inland.

Hi mate 👋🏻 . Yes thats what i was thinking. Just wondering people’s  views on how unstable it would have to be for showere to get even to central districts and further west. Troughs would be wonderful! 

29 minutes ago, saint said:

Hoping the almost perfect combinations for this Easterly allows snow to reach those of us not in the SE corner! :)

Hi Saint! Hoping you beat Chippenham today! Help Oxford City out. :) 

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46 minutes ago, Mark N said:

Hi everyone. Really hope everyone gets snow! Its been a while since a easterly really delivered to all you lot, hope you can share around big dumping of it!  Out of interest does anyone think with the extreme low uppers and relatively warm sea we could see snow showers penetrate as far as Central Southern England. Into Oxon/Bucks/Berks? I’d be intrigued to hear views. In meantime strap yourselves in going to be a fun week! 

I think there will be some showers yeah. More especially when/if the Thames streamer gets going that should send a big dumping our way. I think it was 2nd Feb 2009, a Thames streamer aimed right accross central southern England all the way over to Bristol and out into the Bristol channel. We had about 30cm level snow in Oxfordshire on that occasion. The exact aim will depend on the hour by hour wind direction though.

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11 minutes ago, audiotech said:

I think there will be some showers yeah. More especially when/if the Thames streamer gets going that should send a big dumping our way. I think it was 2nd Feb 2009, a Thames streamer aimed right accross central southern England all the way over to Bristol and out into the Bristol channel. We had about 30cm level snow in Oxfordshire on that occasion. The exact aim will depend on the hour by hour wind direction though.

The streamer affected more Berkshire and Hampshire. It was later that night into the 2nd thanks to a low moving through from Germany/France that gave us the 30cm remember that well! No school for days! 

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expecting the next met update due soon,to mention most of the region seeing increasing chance of heavy snowfall next week

I notice the online forecasts are getting colder they forecast ice days for Brighton next week and 60% chance of prolonged snow fri in sub zero temps and strong winds.bring it on !!

 

 

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I do hope The villages in North/ North west Norfolk get hammered. I have been trying to convince my children of how the winters used to be. They are young men now. And have never experienced a real 70s 80s drifting snow event.

 Going to be gutted if this gets downgraded. Although if these models come to fruition, I will be struggling to survive. Food and heating wise. Exciting and scary.

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28 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

expecting the next met update due soon,to mention most of the region seeing increasing chance of heavy snowfall next week

I notice the online forecasts are getting colder they forecast ice days for Brighton next week and 60% chance of prolonged snow fri in sub zero temps and strong winds.bring it on !!

 

 

BOOM!!!

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My boss at work sent back bags of salt/grit two weeks ago. I said to him on Wednesday that we will need to get some again because of the cold and snow we are going to get next week. He looked at me as if I had gone stark raving mad. "Snow he said. Really??". A lot of other people at work were equally incredulous and disbelieving. Is this due to the general under reporting of this event by the media and particularly the BBC forecasts? I mean even the Daily Express today are headlining with "four inches!" Which for them is under sensational to say the least

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huge upgrade from met office extreme cold setting in and heavy snow showers for many :)d

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Thanks @Nikkib74

Updated UKMO warning 04:36

Expecting ~15cm here by close of play Monday - as long as the winds get NE enough- (75 / 80 degrees )

6AEB8524-A06D-481F-82E7-F5EB6A31E1F8.thumb.png.594f18f5d6f6dba5b2b1aab622ed8bd1.png

Edited by Steve Murr

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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Thanks @Nikkib74

Updated UKMO warning 04:36

Expecting ~15cm here by close of play Monday - as long as the winds get NE enough- (75 / 80 degrees )

6AEB8524-A06D-481F-82E7-F5EB6A31E1F8.thumb.png.594f18f5d6f6dba5b2b1aab622ed8bd1.png

That's all well and good Steve, but fundamentally, it it going to snow IMBY? 😉😛

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first @Nikkib74 what a nice post

i pop over to this region as i have a brother in law who is a teacher in the Chelmsford area and think he will be having a few extra days off very soon but does insist on watching the beeb weather casts which i gather arnt very good at present. so will let him know if i see anything coming his way.

Hope you all get what you want in your area as youve been waiting long enough

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3 minutes ago, Nikkib74 said:

That's all well and good Steve, but fundamentally, it it going to snow IMBY? 😉😛

lol

I think later monday > tues weds when the showers have a bit more legs on them :)

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4 hours ago, Mark N said:

Hi mate 👋🏻 . Yes thats what i was thinking. Just wondering people’s  views on how unstable it would have to be for showere to get even to central districts and further west. Troughs would be wonderful! 

Hi Saint! Hoping you beat Chippenham today! Help Oxford City out. :) 

same here i am telling  people take no  notice of the bbc weather  ex local  its so  from what is going to happen  ie met office they close to a red warning  bbc dont even mention it  , i just look at the gfs  something i trust

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

lol

I think later monday > tues weds when the showers have a bit more legs on them :)

I literally can't believe you even answered that 😂 legend

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Oh and @yamkin......I have missed your exuberant ramps, I used to wait with baited breath on the whereabouts of the gritters and the news from the MetO, but have been lurking and following/enjoying your posts again recently. Good times!

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Latest thoughts from us: https://essexweather.org.uk/severe-winter-weather/

Bit more on Friday... The 30% risk from the Met Office guidance statement (02Z) relates to the low moving far enough North to affect a significant part of England and Wales. There is obviously a slightly higher risk (currently) for Southern parts of England which of course includes Kent, London etc.

The most likely scenario based on CF is the low to run either along Northern France or perhaps as far North as the English Channel. Remember, we are talking about a low which is nearly a week away!

Monday Night, Tuesday and even Wednesday is looking fantastic for our region. Even the 00Z GFS has near continuous snow over South Essex and Kent during this time. UKMO-GM shows a streamer from Clacton to East London with spot totals of 11CM at Gravesend, 13CM Isle of Sheppy.

Have a great weekend, and get the sledge ready for Tuesday :D

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latest MetO forecast for the south east-

"

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Extremely cold with snow showers becoming more widespread and also heavier, especially Monday night onwards. Significant accumulations are likely to develop in places, most likely across eastern areas. Becoming windy.

Updated: 02:05 on Sat 24 Feb 2018 GMT"

Shocked-Polar-Bear-1.thumb.jpg.708a80360b33c784fca68cfbc15f7303.jpg

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5 hours ago, Daniel* said:

1987, 201see what I did there. ;)

 

I remember that well. Motorists on the A20 between Lenham and Charing were stranded for days at the Three Musketeers Motel. Villages like Eccles had Chinooks dropping off essential supplies.

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