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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards


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Just now, CK1981 said:

2 things about the GFS

Always blows up low pressure systems 

Always too progressive (especially against a cold block)

Yes, at the moment it seems a bit unrealistic for a low to so easily get rid of the cold air. However, that also poses the risk of the low not evening reaching these shores! We shall see what further runs suggest. 

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Christ. Had to actually talk to the missus. Wife: You have been glued to that phone lately, you looking at porn or something? Me: Yes, yes I am... Wife: You dirty b****** what exactly a

Good evening Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently) MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout th

The SE contingent watching the radar about 4pm Sunday

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1 hour ago, lawrenk said:

I’ll just put this out there.

I love Tight Isobar.

Got be near Golders Green, just down from Finchley road. They charge for ice there

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31 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Nothing back from them which is no surprise. I think the forecasters are protesting over something. They could be in disagreement with their new boss MeteoGroup

MeteoGroup, very suspect company if you ask me. Where are they based, Germany, is it run by Germans or not? I have nothing agains Germans just think that its all very strange what the BBC have done dropping UK's very own Met Office, and we can see this reflected very clearly in the way that they carrying on right now. Its like the BBC are working for an Alien entity or something......:doh:

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1 minute ago, saint said:

Yes, at the moment it seems a bit unrealistic for a low to so easily get rid of the cold air. However, that also poses the risk of the low not evening reaching these shores! We shall see what further runs suggest. 

Middle ground wound be good, but it’ll get modelled south all the time. Good for prolonged cold, poor for snow.

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2 minutes ago, snowray said:

MeteoGroup, very suspect company if you ask me. Where are they based, Germany, is it run by Germans or not? I have nothing agains Germans just think that its all very strange what the BBC have done dropping UK's very own Met Office, and we can see this reflected very clearly in the way that they carrying on right now. Its like the BBC are working for an Alien entity or something......:doh:

I’ve never seen such poor forecasts. For us who study the models (without the extra data the METO have) it’s like seeing my 7 year old nephew predict the weather. 

The Met Office have been amazing with their predictions all winter 

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Yes good to have CK1981 Back in time for the Upcoming Madness and the Amazing SE thread :)

Couple of things from the last few posts, one the incredible depths around the Ashford and Kent areas from 1987 was caused by a straight and penetrating North Easterly like the Nor Easters they get in the States, that really was an incredible wind which whipped up drifts probably never seen since, some in Kent were 20ft Deep near the M2.

The Low Pressure for end of work week, History would favour a southerly route and undercut of the Low across the Spanish/French area but have looked into a few events on Wiki the last few days and some of the most notable SW And South Central Blizzards of the last 300 years HAVE had these LP Crashing into the Block so anything is possible and cant be totally discounted. The angle looks strange to me, straight east across Biscay and then a sharp turn to the NE just does not look right and the Block will surely win this battle.

Interesting times ahead for the next 7-10 days

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4 minutes ago, snowray said:

MeteoGroup, very suspect company if you ask me. Where are they based, Germany, is it run by Germans or not? I have nothing agains Germans just think that its all very strange what the BBC have done dropping UK's very own Met Office, and we can see this reflected very clearly in the way that they carrying on right now. Its like the BBC are working for an Alien entity or something......:doh:

MeteoGroup started in the Netherlands and is now one of the top 5 weather providers in the world. It’s headquartered in London and owned by General Atlantic.

No idea what is going on at the BBC but Meteogroup’s own app “WeatherPro” is pretty much spot on and in line with models and MetO.

Their forecasts in other countries are fine. Watched Dutch RTL4 earlier.

Baffling!

 

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3 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I’ve never seen such poor forecasts. For us who study the models (without the extra data the METO have) it’s like seeing my 7 year old nephew predict the weather. 

The Met Office have been amazing with their predictions all winter 

I imagine next week probably will interfere with their AGW agenda, ever so slightly. Lets see if we get to 7c on Sunday.:laugh:

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3 minutes ago, snowray said:

MeteoGroup, very suspect company if you ask me. Where are they based, Germany, is it run by Germans or not? I have nothing agains Germans just think that its all very strange what the BBC have done dropping UK's very own Met Office, and we can see this reflected very clearly in the way that they carrying on right now. Its like the BBC are working for an Alien entity or something......:doh:

Meteo Group marketed mobile users and websites for tourist forecast a while back... (some person driving an aardvark+1 turbo was very convincing to someone high up ) so everytime you looked at what the weather was going to be like there was always a sparkling sun and higher than usual temps but when one got to the holiday destination you've saved a year to get to it drizzled and was cold .

The MetOffice take their holidays elsewhere (-:

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Rob McElwee was the perfect presenter; the right mix of knowledge and gravitas. I always remember December 09 when he gave a really wintry forecast for the weekend, and signed off with: "Oh, and then there's Monday still to come..." And gave a little evil cackle.

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25 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I think they had a contract with the BBC, but the BBC took the cheap option. We don’t know the financials, but the BBC have made a silly mistake 

I think the decision to not renew the contract was more political - from what I’ve heard from a pro met rather than financial, something to do with Met O being mostly government owned. 

But the BBC forecasts have really gone downhill since Meteogroup took over feeding data, their temp projections are too high, their forecast map on TV forecasts too small to decipher and thus difficult to make out where it’ll rain or snow unless they bothered to zoom in regionally. Their App is inaccurate and misleading with forecasts apparently, though I would never use one. Such a shame, as I did hold BBC forecasts in high regard for years since I was little until the change. The vagueness and dumbing down for next week’s obvious risks is quite telling ...

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5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I think the decision to not renew the contract was more political - from what I’ve heard rather than financial, something to do with Met O being mostly government owned. 

But the BBC forecasts have really gone downhill since Meteogroup took over feeding data, their temp projections are to high, their forecast map on TV forecasts too small to decipher and thus difficult to make out where it’ll rain or snow unless they bothered t9 zoom in regionally. Their App is inaccurate and misleading with forecasts apparently, though I would never use one. Such a shame, as I did hold BBC forecast and graphics in high regard for years since I was little until the change. The vagueness and dumbing down for next week’s obvious risks is quite telling ...

That seems a perfectly plausible reason, Nick. It’s just a shame they adopted this route. It’s like the presenters are approaching the forecast in the same way us as amateurs, not that we are wrong, of course ?

You’re not an amateur.....my bad there 

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5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I think the decision to not renew the contract was more political - from what I’ve heard from a pro met rather than financial, something to do with Met O being mostly government owned. 

But the BBC forecasts have really gone downhill since Meteogroup took over feeding data, their temp projections are too high, their forecast map on TV forecasts too small to decipher and thus difficult to make out where it’ll rain or snow unless they bothered to zoom in regionally. Their App is inaccurate and misleading with forecasts apparently, though I would never use one. Such a shame, as I did hold BBC forecasts in high regard for years since I was little until the change. The vagueness and dumbing down for next week’s obvious risks is quite telling ...

yes the BBC opted for an app used by the majority of our european friends but for our ickle island on the edge of the East Atlantic we need more detail and dedication.

Looks like we'll be looking east for the time being but I don't fancy our chances of good forecasts from meteogroup. Rather our Met Office as a stable, trusted and respected establishment. God knows how politics ever got involved... unless it was that person with a loud voice and an aarvarck +1 turbo with go faster stripes that sold it to the beeb! 

Looking forward to real up to date forecasts...

is it going to snow in Hertfordshire on Tuesday? Maybe it'll beat the 15cm we got in December - (-:

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3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Models looking fantastic but when watched bbc further ahead not much snow Monday:Tuesday playing it down..:cc_confused:

Useless to be honest. The high res models will soon pick up on steamers...

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Just now, CK1981 said:

Useless to be honest. The high res models will soon pick up on steamers...

Also, the precipitation forecast percentages on the BBC app nowadays appear to have been randomly plucked from the air and are always really low, even when very unsettled weather is forecast. It's always been my bugbear with Meteogroup from when I used their Weatherpro app; they'll tell you there's a 10% chance of rain even though you know there's a frontal system heading in, then when it gets here and it starts tipping it down, it changes the probability to 100%! Great.

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4 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Classic repeat of 1991  - no wonder I don't know what the fuss was all about! 

 

2 minutes ago, Long haul to mild said:

Also, the precipitation forecast percentages on the BBC app nowadays appear to have been randomly plucked from the air and are always really low, even when very unsettled weather is forecast. It's always been my bugbear with Meteogroup from when I used their Weatherpro app; they'll tell you there's a 10% chance of rain even though you know there's a frontal system heading in, then when it gets here and it starts tipping it down, it changes the probability to 100%! Great.

Indeed. They’ve only just come around to the easterly flow ?

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46 minutes ago, snowray said:

Indeed, parts of central and east Kent were pretty well snowed in in 87, I have seen pretty big snow drifts around the downs myself sort of Canterbury/Ashford way about 10 years ago. I suspects that some places will see large amounts of drifting snow next week that will hang around for quite some time, even when the thaw sets in, because everything will end up just freezing and turning icy.:cold:

1987 is the first snow i remember. Lived in shadoxhurst. Essentialsnwere delivered on tractors. The drifts were 8ft or more

That set the bar for me and is what i long for again 

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